Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The widest trending after Wednesday's close was Globex rejecting its early surge to 2460.00, back down to 2275.00 by midnight. Several still sizeable legs trended back up to within 3 points of the overnight high at 2457.50. But that was isolated between exiting the afternoon bias environment and entering the final hour. And it was the third test to ultimately hold 2443.00 resistance. The last reaction down reached 2388.00 by the cash session close, and then 2347.00 after it. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Already having trended down 41 points past the cash session close, Globex's first hour extended down another 17 points to attack 2330.00. Trending up since then greeted Europe's opens at 2460.00 which triggered a brief surge to 2496.00 before reacting down to 2451.00. Its retest up to 2499.00 has reacted down even lower to 2425.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's late 90-point slide into the overnight low has stretched the rubber band to snap back up 170 points. Yesterday's highs are still being probed, although much higher earlier, and now being overlapped. Gapping up above relevant resistance is the only immediate path higher if the prior afternoon failed to gain traction. While 2443.00 would have sufficed yesterday, 2555.00 is today's bullish standard. Holding 2499.00-2504.00 resistance would suggest the overnight rally has only stretched another rubber band to snap back down, which would be signaled back under 2443.00. It could also start a second consecutive session of failing to trigger potentially bullish setups. And being expiration -- i.e. Friday Factors on steroids -- breaking under 2443.00 support would likely extend to the 2350.00 area, and then to new lows under 2262.00. Expiration's influence could be just as bullish if the open's gap up were maintained. But expirations don't typically accompany trend reversals, so even if rallying today and into next week would remain vulnerable to resuming the decline. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2466.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2453.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2443.00 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2443.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Most recently tested the bias-down signal. Collapsing 110 points from yesterday afternoon's high to the first hour Globex low. Rallying 169 points to the overnight high. Collapsing 138 points through the open. So. Much. Volatility. Yet, the first hour ultimately swung back and forth around the same relevant level -- yesterday's close. In a normal sized environment,  hat inertia would normally qualify as a "Dry Cleaners Morning" i.e. perhaps better of running errands. In this giant sized environment we'll keep identifying even the briefest legs. The open's blip-up to 2431.50 reacted down through its 2411.00 sell signal and quickly extended 50 points lower to 2461.00. Triggering the bounce limit and recovering the 2477.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 also triggered no-bias. This put into play an offsetting test of the 2427.25 bias-up signal. Its buy signal above 2398.50 just probed its objective up to 2434.00. Still being a no-bias environment, the bias-up signal should define the window's upper-end. The open already indicated inertia, and there's plenty of time for reacting back down. Objectives could be the 2393.50 10:15 print, or back down to the 2377.00 bias-down signal. The bias signals no longer need define the range when the window begins lapsing at 11:30. Nothing ensures that expiration will allow trending until the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2413.00 2401.00 ...would target 2440.00 2428.00 Bias-down: under 2370.50 2367.50 ...would target 2354.75 2341.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And still overlapping yesterday's close. Despite the wide interim overnight swings, 3 of the first hour's 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped yesterday's open. That didn't preclude volatility, which triggered a bias objective. It was fulfilled up to 2442.50, but ultimately its 2427.25 bias-up signal defined the window's upper-end. The bias environment exit returned to overlapping yesterday's open. A consolidation there probed fresh post-open lows down to 2339.50, attacking the overnight low. Only to bounce again and overlap yesterday's close coming out of the noon hour. Masked by the wide intraday range is expiration preventing trending that could otherwise extend. Now a second no-bias signal has triggered. Like this morning's bias-up limited the recovery, the afternoon's 2367.50 bias-down signal should continue defining this window's lower-end. Trending attempted when the bias environment is at least within view of lapsing would be credible for extending.

If the market wore a Fitbit, then its steps since Thursday's close must have been a personal best. Extending down 68 points through Globex's first hour and then rallying 169 points to the 2499.00 overnight high was only the beginning. Dropping 138 points into Friday's open and bouncing 82 points to the morning's 2442.50 high still wasn't finished. Trending down 180 points extended through Friday's close and probed Wednesday's low down to 2260.00. And this is a session that never threatened a limit or a halt. Clearly, the only near-term path higher begins by gapping up sharply Monday, or else the decline extends. Durable turning points are not usually accompanied by expirations. And now we've complemented Wednesday's bearish behavior -- except for its last-minute headline-inspired rally -- with Friday's bearish behavior to form a bearish WedEX setup. So, Monday morning is likely to trend down, regardless of the open gapping up or down, or just opening flat. It is only this potential for gapping up that made a hold-short any less compelling than already for a weekend. All other factors suggest the decline's ongoing channel is preparing to break lower at an accelerated pace, and only gapping up Monday above Friday's highs can even begin to form a bottom. As usual, we'll game out paths and price points at the Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW AT 9:30 ET.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2337.25 2325.25 ...would target 2350.25 2348.25 Bias-down: under 2281.25 2269.25 ...would target 2254.00 2243.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.