VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Market Open Predictions - 7:42 AM
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Previously : Mon night's narrow range blipped-up to 4024 into Europe's opens and reversed down out of it. The 3998 pre-open low trended down into the afternoon to 3981. Reacting up to 4007 through the close left oversold RSIs outstanding at the low, and the morning's 4018 bias objective outstanding above.
Overnight price points : Tue's afternoon's rally extended without delay to hover narrowly at the intraday's 4018 unfinished business. And then the real buying began. Breaking higher at midnight extended through Europe's opens to 4040, the highest print since last Wednesday's FOMC afternoon. A reaction there just attacked 4033.
Catalysts : Low-profile econ reports and Fed speaker, new Banking laws.
Setups/Patterns : Multi-session gap, Relentless Overnight Trending.
Their influences : Suddenly shifting focus from probing lows to probing highs must still survive the open's attempt to make the focus about the highs' probe fighting back... Having trended exclusively overnight, maintaining the series of higher highs and higher lows would enable the open's first 15 minutes to indicate whether either reinforcements or countertrend sponsorship has taken intraday control.
Premise : Closing back above both of Tue's bias-down signals had all but marginalized sellers, at least helping to ensure the low's retest would likely hold. But it wasn't retested, as unfinished business above at the morning's 4018 bias objective helped to attract Tue's final hour higher. Having closed above both of Tue's 3996-3998 bias-down signals, and now neutralizing 4018 overnight, and initial strength through the first-15 can extend through the morning.
Alternative : Initial strength that holds a test of 4042-4044 during the open would likely spend the morning backing-and-filling, potentially limited to 4025-4031.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 4018, 3998, 3977.
Trade Signals - Market Open Update - 11:05 AM
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Previously : Tue's afternoon's rally extended without delay to hover narrowly at the intraday's 4018 unfinished business. And then the real buying began. Breaking higher at midnight extended through Europe's opens to 4040, the highest print since last Wednesday's FOMC afternoon.
New price points : The pre-open reaction down to 4031 was recovered to the open's 4045 blip-up that gradually extended to 4048, but reacted down again to 4032.
Catalysts : Low-profile econ reports and Fed speaker, new Banking laws.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP RENEWED... Multi-session gap.
Their influences : Suddenly shifting focus from probing lows to probing highs must still survive the open's attempt to make the focus about the highs' probe fighting back.
Triggers/Tactics : Still testing 4042-4044throiugh the open but not extending kept the burden of proof on buyers that their efforts were gaining traction. Fresh highs weren't retraced deeply enough for sellers to gain traction for their efforts. The subsequent dip comes too late to be strong-handed, so it's likely searching for stronger-handed buyers to sponsor another upleg into and/or out of the noon hour to 4060.
Alternative : While backing-and-filling to 4025-4031 would have been a helpful pre-open pullback, now it would start to be too deep for just a temporary correction.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 4018, 3998, 3977.
Tonight's Day Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4051, targeting 4066.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4035, targeting 4021.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Mid-Day Predictions - 1:59 PM
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Closing Wrap is EARLY at 3:15 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Post-close updates will be published tonight.
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Previously : Tue's afternoon's rally extended sharply higher overnight 4040, where a pullback to 4032 resolved up sharply through the open to 4048. Another reaction down to 4032 came too late to gain traction, but robbed buyers of their traction anyway.
New price points : Recovering into and out of the noon hour probed a fresh high only attacking the bias-up signal to within 1 point at 4050.
Catalysts : Low-profile econ reports and Fed speaker, new Banking laws.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS... Gap-and-Pause.
Their influences : No objectives are in-play, but the window should be defined by either of its signal levels if tested... This is NOT a Gap-and-Pause setup because post-open quickly peaked and overlapped instead of actually trending. Otherwise, we would anticipate a pullback tomorrow and then its recovery Fri -- which could still develop, but not necessarily or because of this disqualified setup.
Triggers/Tactics : 4042-4044 continues holding its tests and not rejecting them at relevant windows, still reflecting that stronger-handed patient buyers. None of which has prevented detours, the shallowest this morning compared to the two prior sessions that nevertheless rewarded the accumulation that their pullbacks had signaled. And nothing ensures resuming the rally today, but the bias window lapsing would open the door to 4051 and 4060, presumably eventually a retest of last Wednesday's 4074 high up to 4077.
Alternative : Slow-playing the rally here may start slipping too deep and trigger a deeper pullback this afternoon into tomorrow morning. The 4018-4028 38.2-61.8% proxy gap would be the biggest attraction, likeliest to touch 4021.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 4018, 3998, 3977.
Day Trading Market Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Tue's afternoon's rally extended sharply higher overnight 4040, where a pullback to 4032 resolved up sharply through the open to 4048. Another reaction down to 4032 came too late to gain traction, but robbed buyers of their traction anyway. Recovering into and out of the noon hour probed a fresh high only attacking the bias-up signal to within 1 point at 4050. Exiting the bias window extended to probe the 4060 target by 1 point.
Catalysts : Claims, GDP, PCE, Fed speaker.
Setups/Patterns : No active setup.
Their influences : - .
Premise : Closing Wrap's recording describes the current buy-the-dip conditioning. So, I'll be a little reluctant unlike the past 3 days to buy shallow weakness. There's room down to the Tue-Wed 4018-4028 proxy gap before suspecting last week's highs aren't still the next objective.
Alternative : The bullish paradigm shift suggested by Wed's action doesn't usually correct so soon, so even the slightest strength at Thu's open would be credible for extending -- even more than shallow strength.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 4018, 3998, 3977.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4063, targeting 4077.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4048, targeting 4033.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.