Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) After trending down throughout the overnight Globex session, the open's session-long decline setup both formed AND triggered. But wasn't productive, and missing the first two opportunities to probe a prior timing window's low invalidated it That didn't default into a rally. Reacting up from the open's 2505.25 low to the 2509.00 ranged choppily and sloppily through the noon hour. And although the afternoon's bias-up extended to 2605.00, the last half-hour plunged back down to 2516.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) No sign of improvement globally over the weekend triggered a rote gap down to 2459.00 that spiked to 2445.00. Immediately reversing back up ignored a much weaker Nikkei and extended up to 2567.50 soon after midnight. Dropping back down to 2495.00 through Europe's opens has firmed back to unchanged around Friday's 2524.00-2532.00 close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Overbought RSIs at Friday's 2605.00 high require an eventual retest, sooner rather than later if today's open is still within Friday's range. Last night's initial attempt to extend Friday's late collapse attracted no reinforcements. Probing back into positive territory peaked upon retracing the collapse by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, so attracting reinforcements before the open could still be credible for extending down. Otherwise, almost any positive open could recover to retest Thursday's 29629.00-2634.50 highs or higher. Trending at all this morning isn't required, especially if a bias signal isn't triggered. Otherwise, bear market rallies respond easily to excessive optimism, which is deserved after quickly ending, retracing and reversing last night's opening drop. So, any hint of rallying should soon trigger a stampede. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2536.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2549.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2525.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2504.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2555.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up, and exiting the open under 2490.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Open's immediate surge takes one more detour down. The 2567.50 overnight high had corrected down to 2495.00, but recovered to attack overnight highs before the open. Surging without delay through the open behaved exactly as the bullish template dictated. But piercing the overnight high up to 2568.75 didn't attract reinforcements. Au contraire. Its reaction fell back down to Friday's 2532.00 cash session close. There was no bullish reason for that, but at least it was isolated to the first 15 minutes of volatility. And having surged at the open still made further upside likely. The extra dip has resolved up, trending to attack fresh highs at 2582.25. This far exceeds the 2570.50 bias-up target that was put into play by exceeding the 2549.00 bias-up signal through 10:15. The bias-up signal should define the window's lower-end if tested as support. The bias-up target need not restrain the window's upper-end,. Resolving up remains likely, not only to test Friday's 2605.00 high but also Thursday's 2626.00 high and higher to 2586.00. We'll look at this morning's highs to identify an afternoon sell signal.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2610.50 2598.50 ...would target 2630.00 2618.00 Bias-down: under 2589.00 2577.00 ...would target 2567.00 2555.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Borrowed forward. This morning's rally extended. A little higher to compensate for being a little delayed. Rather than only test the 2567.50 overnight high, it was probed to attack Friday's 2605.00 high. Rallying this afternoon was likely, assuming the morning's optimism were more restrained than has actually developed. So, did the morning's impatience borrow from the afternoon's optimism, or did the morning's excess enable rallying further from higher levels. This afternoon's no-bias isn't a definitive answer between the two. But it is pausing the recovery. Both bias signals were already tested, and there's no requirement to retest either one. Only that either one should define that end of the range if tested. The bias environment begins lapsing at the bottom of the hour. Breaking beyond either 2577.00 or 2598.50 bias signal would then be more reliable for extending in that direction.

REMINDER: BIAS SIGNAL BASICS WORKSHOP TUESDAY 5:15 PM ET Sunday night's gap down to 2445.00 was similar to Friday's late collapse from 2605.00. Each was too brief and too shallow, respectively, to reverse the trend down. Thursday's rally had already satisfied last Tuesday's confirmed breakout, which open's the door to a reversal. So, failed attempts to exploit the reversal opportunity are bullish by default. Monday's 2553.00 open blipped-up to 2569.00 to all but create a position of strength. Retracing back down to Friday's 2532.00 close was quickly recovered to resume the overnight recovery. Trending throughout the session eventually attacked 2622.00. Monday's 2611.00-2614.50 close was overlapping Thursday's 2609.00-2612.00 close, which leaves open the potential for resolving in either direction. Retesting Thursday's 2626.00-2634.50 highs is likely to visit 2638.00-2643.00, but not assured of extending higher intraday. Already opening Tuesday under 2574.00-2579.00 would suggest a deeper pullback or new downleg underway. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2639.25 2626.75 ...would target 2652.50 2641.00 Bias-down: under 2613.50 2601.50 ...would target 2600.00 2588.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.