Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 03-31-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday morning's gap down did not implode downward, which would have forecast a bearish morning. In fact, the bias environment rallied almost 13 points to probe fresh recovery highs attacking 2367.00. That probed above the bias-up signal, despite it being too late to trigger. An 8-point dip to 2359.00 during the noon hour satisfied the required no-bias trending retracement. But the balance of the session recovered to attack the morning's highs. The morning's no-bias offset of its 2351.75 bias-down signal was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Firming to attack Thursday afternoon's highs was brief, and soon reversed down. Testing 2357.00 ahead of Europe's opens was retraced momentarily to attack 2361.00. All of which has ranged narrowly centered around this morning's 2358.25 bias-down signal. If, then... The afternoon's bounce stopped pessimistically short of touching the morning's highs. Probing fresh highs is almost obligatory, which there is a limited window of opportunity to reject. So, not trending down abruptly at Friday's open would suggest another morning rally. and Friday Factors would open the door to extending the recovery into the weekend. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2356.75 would be likely to trigger the 2358.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exit4ing the open above 2360.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning it's Friday welcome to the Friday morning Market to her to take a quick look at the bigger picture the bigger picture was begun this week by gapping down gapping down and what was expected to be a test to 2327 at least the roofer noise under 2331 because 2331 it only been attacked and its attack didn't reverse the trend up Friday and under 23 through 27 was 2317 which was itself attacked overnight due within three text and by closing Monday back above 31 having tested 27 let alone 17 told us that the declines momentum it ended none of which said that the rally had to extend higher without the late although it has none of which prevented immediately coming back to neutralize the gap down under our lives at 2321 that's outstanding not as a requirement if we ever get back into its orbit it'll be the attraction Tuesday Mornings rally so so eager was the recovery to extend Tuesday Thornton weekend its sponsorship Tuesday Mornings rally begin after failing the trigger by ass up and that nobody's trending as you have to be were traced to its 4225 buy a sub signal that was broken too late since then there was one other there's an accident on the shows of strength where we can get sponsorship has been given a pass and that is when the afternoons Rally's have fulfilled their buying pressure without triggering any higher Target in play and yet where that would normally require a pulled back the next morning or at the very least delaying the Rally's reception until the late afternoon to that next session so we have some signs of a little more restraint in the recovery like yesterday morning's again no bias trending no bias triggered by holding 6250 the bias of signal it was probed anyway but this time retraced as is the requirement as is still a requirement swertres 4225 Noble stranded if anything that prevented resuming the rally now yes afternoons rally stop short of touching the morning so I'm a little short pessimistically short which remote control in perspective can be foolish not to that produced a french fry there's a small window here then if that ineffectual pessimism from yesterday afternoon if that's not going to be rewarded basically you are the consequences are going to be a pro by the way to avoid that will be too and there was an indicated there is an attraction from yesterday morning having a morning's 6250 bicep Signal Hill it was a late putting in Plano and was it actually requirementsso this morning Cuts one way or the other very similar to yesterday the immediately Post open price action is going to be the most productive so I was with yesterday for instance if the morning we're going to trim down regardless of gapping down regardless of having rejected Ohio night if the morning we're going to trim down then it should have printed them abruptly and it did it only get them so yeah and if anything else is roughly River stuff this morning is going to get I just going to trim down it needs to make that obvious it's likely to make that obvious sooner rather than later to the open so if we get through the open and the further we get into the open to let alone through the entire open without yet trending down the more likely that will recover through the morning after the session at least back to you say size it's not hire say 69 then into the seventies alright I'll have levels on screen as we get into the open an interesting little triangles for that here not a very productive one but training support looks good alright looking at other markets so the year as a little weaker really don't want to see it take this area doesn't have to fully test this one of 690 area or extent before reversing up which it is still likelier than not to do two altimate Lira test Monday's open that open above all prior has a little bit weaker overnight or at least flat till our the Looney pretty big effort to take out that so so that really hasn't been predictive it's been more of a magnet but that's not lasting at least it's getting a second bite of that apple by the pound or the Euro extended down but both of your own a pound of this Gap up from Monday that we were tested two pounds in a better position to lead that way and then the Aussie stopping short of two things it's bound to bullish development potential as one would have been closed since when since Tuesday's reversal didn't do it another bullets development 7680 didn't do it so unless something happens today probably in the next Silver yesterday and reacted to it normal to react to it predicted that was all resolved by closing negative but it does require if Aprilback under actually back in the last Thursday's low that's the big Line in the Sand last Thursday also held Fridays post close dep that's what we can start to get a signal from this pattern otherwise this is the lower end of the Rings and closing not just back about Friday's post close low which was a dip here closing back about Friday's regular 12:50 or close actually 1252 that would at least put into play and attack on franchise closing above 1252 1251 5052 but if 52 better since we don't have any Clarity in the pattern otherwise but closing above 1252 a given every benefit of the doubt for putting in the play of fresh at least a retest of the prize which consequently could give silver that boost to get through 1830 to 1855 one got it take seriously that point which was initially being tested first before filling this Gap back to Monday's open 15126 being tested again yesterday does follow after it was chipped away earlier in the week but just be careful if this is going to give away it's certainly has potential to give way to the tech 149 but otherwise we do have unfinished business above if it can't give away into the weekend it's not going to be testing Harlow's tomorrow tomorrow

Relatively narrow opening range, holding. Similar to Thursday's open, not trending down through the open has made trending down this morning unlikely. Dipping overnight to 2357.00 had bounced pre-open to 2363.00. Dipping again into the open was very short-lived, and it only attacked the 2358.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. Reversing back up has attacked 2365.00. Its still negative territory, but it's not arbitrary. There was an effort to break lower, and the effort failed through relevant timing windows. Sellers are likely marginalized for the morning... or later. Meanwhile, only attacking the bias-down signal -- even all the way to within 1 tick -- doesn't equate to actually touching it. So, an offsetting test of its 2366.25 bias-up signal isn't required. Not officially, but it's still likely. And at least an obligatory probe above yesterday's 2367.00 highs is likely, too.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2370.00 2366.25 ...would target  2375.50  2372.00 Bias-down: under  2361.25  2357.75 ...would target 2355.25  2351.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Upside momentum persisting through the noon hour. This morning's 2258.25 bias-down signal was attacked to within 1 tick. Not touched. So, no offsetting test of its 2266.25 bias-up signal was put into play. Not officially. But its test was still likely for other reasons that had marginalized sellers.

If tested this morning, 2266.25 was required to define the no-bias environment's upper-end. But it wasn't touched.

2266.25 is this afternoon's bias-up signal, too. It was being attacked to within 3 ticks at 1:20. Not triggered, not touched in time to invoke the grace period, and not exceeded at 1:30 to invalidate its no-bias.

If tested this afternoon, 2266.25 should define the no-bias environment's upper-end.

Actually, it's being tested now. Still being overlapped, which qualifies as defining the upper-end. So it's not "no-bias trending." It's possible -- we can go weeks and weeks without any no-bias trending, and we've had two already this week. Trending higher after the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 would be credible for extending higher into the weekend. Meanwhile, a shallow pullback could slow-play the rally until that path higher clears. But back under 2362.00 would start to suggest momentum is reversing back down.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: There is NO Saturday Review this weekend. The week began with a bang, and ended with a whimper. Gapping down to fresh pullback lows Monday, and probing lower intraday, had tested two critical levels. Both 2327.00 and 2317.00 held their test (the latter to within 3 ticks) before reversing to close back above 2331.00. The pullback had ended. That much we knew instantly. Instantly extending Monday's intraday recovery into a multi-session rally was not assured. And it developed despite bearish influences and attractions left outstanding below. Monday's 2321.00 gap down will want to be filled eventually. Tuesday morning's 2342.25 bias-up signal requires an eventual retest. But Friday's session hardly suggested an association with such volatility that recently preceded it. Thursday night's slide was being reversed before the open, and then more so into the afternoon. All action developed at or between its bias signals. The afternoon bias environment's drop was not credible for extending down for its no-bias timing, so it recovered. Temporarily, as a deeper drop into the close retested the open's low, but held the range. That was the week. Friday's session may have been the week's hallowest, if not also for the month. Now we have one week before end-o'quarter earnings start buffeting the opens, and inhibiting the closes. Price action during its last month struggled, suggesting that analysts weren't awed upon checking in with their coverage. In fact, this past couple of week's has already seen misses appearing. Example, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) plunging Thursday as its stores apparently have seen too few misses arriving. A week of similar higher-profile earnings news probably won't attract stock buyers. Anticipation for that week can't be very attractive, either. But Friday's whimper is obvious even without being juxtaposed against Monday's bang. It was essentially an "inside day" and it is positioned at a multi-session recovery's extreme. Presumably, there is still an objective or two outstanding above, else the conditions and attractions below would have produced a downside bang into the weekend. The question is in what order we're about to see one more weak-handed optimistic surge ahead of earnings, and another defensive reaction down/ Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

REPEATING: There is NO Saturday Review this weekend. Overnight Globex trading can be monitored Sunday night in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2367.50 2364.00 ...would target  2372.50 2369.00 Bias-down: under  2361.25 2357.75 ...would target 2354.00  2350.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.