Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 04-05-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Probing a new "Globex trend extreme" Sunday night wasn't maintained into Monday's open. Opening back under Friday's 2067.00 high began trending down, printing a fresh low in each timing window except the noon hour. We were prepared for the likelihood of beginning a correction immediately, but the intraday drop never became painful enough to seem complete -- two no-bias environment and sellers didn't gain traction. Meanwhile, previously "unfinished business below" remained outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Monday's downtrending resumed without delay into the Globex open. Friday morning's 2048.75 bias-down signal's required retest was fulfilled by midnight, and held the lower-end of a shallow consolidation. Breaking sharply lower into Europe's opens has extended down to test last Friday's opening bar down to 2037.75. If, then... So, does this overnight decline qualify as a correction's painfulness? Sort of. The global crowd is feeling it, but we don't yet know whether it will bleed into the intraday. Gapping open TO a prior extreme after trending relentlessly overnight can often launch a reversal -- that's what happened at this level last Friday. Nothing precludes this morning from duplicating a recovery from gapping down to support. But the alternative is to trend down under Friday's low, probably a lot. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2044.50 would be likely at least to test the 2048.75 bias-down target as resistance. Exiting the open above 2051.00 would be likely to recover the bias-down target through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2039.25 probably trends down sharply.

Surviving post-open fresh low isn't yet out of the woods. Simply rallying post-open wasn't likely to be the product of strong-handed buyers. A more credible bottoming setup would put buyers to the test of rescuing the market from fresh post-open lows. They got their chance. They still need another. Not another lower low. The post-open drop from 2045.50 to 2036.75 was sufficient. And it did react up to 2048.00. But that was 3 ticks short of even touching this morning's 2048.75 bias-down target, let alone recovering it to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. So, evidence of a bottom still still needs backing-and-filling this morning, and then exiting the bias environment at 11:30 in rally mode. Backing-and-filling would target 2041.00 (being tested now), possibly also 2039.25. Testing either one should react up so upside momentum can meet 11:30 head-on. Meanwhile, the door remains open to extending the decline. A fresh session low wouldn't put buyers to another test, but fail them for the earlier one. Next lower objectives discussed during the pre-market Tour are 2032.50, 2021.00-2022.00 and 2009.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2057.00 2048.75 ...would target 2061.75  2053.50 Bias-down: under  2046.25  2038.00 ...would target 2040.75  2032.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Tuesday afternoon missed two opportunities for rallying out of the range and up to safety. Not that a dip couldn't have developed, but Tuesday's range could have served as support to launch a bigger rally. Now Tuesday's range can serve the inverse purpose. Rather than offer a safety net below, now bouncing from a break lower would be as difficult to recover. Gapping up above Tuesday afternoon's 2046.00 high may be the only bullish scenario. Not that a break lower will try recovering soon. As much time as was spent consolidating Tuesday, the late return to session lows has no reason to delay extending down. The attraction to 2032.50 can restart the decline, next targeting 2021.00-2022.00 and 2009.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2052.75 2044.50 ...would target  2059.25  2051.00 Bias-down: under  2044.00  2035.75 ...would target 2038.75  2030.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.