Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 04-10-2017

Opening surge marginalizes sellers. Sort of. If the open wasn't already in decline, then the market is likely bottoming. Not necessarily rallying, but at least attracted up to 2364.50 instead of down to fresh lows. And that's regardless of having surged from the 2354.00 open up to 2360.00, and then already eking higher to test 2363.00. If anything, such aggressive behavior so quickly from essentially unchanged is ripe for retracement -- it attracts more impatient weak handed buyers than patient strong hands. So, as we discussed during this weekend's Saturday Review, the bigger picture points up. But now a lot of room has been created to absorb selling pressure without it damaging the chart, which a healthy rally would likely exploit. It's not required, but a pullback to 2355.75 or 2351.50 can't yet be dismissed.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2359.00 2355.75 ...would target  2366.00  2362.75 Bias-down: under  2352.25  2349.00 ...would target 2347.25  2344.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

If weak-handed selling absorbed, then strong-handed buying should begin. Monday morning's pullback fulfilled its 2351.50 potential. And that was just during the morning. The origin of the move and its timing suggested its sponsorship was weak-handed. That didn't prevent probing a little deeper to 2347.50 as the noon hour began. But its timing also suggested weak-handed sponsorship. Suggesting weak-handed sponsorship is all we have, until the close. There are still some clues -- like isolating the deeper dip to the noon hour, and like triggering the afternoon's 2355.75 bias-up signal. Probing this morning's high would be a clue, too, but only 2360.00 is being tested, The final clue would deprecate the suggestion, by closing above Thu-Fri ~2361.00 prior highs. Now entering the final hour just under it, simply ranging flat-to-higher for an hour seems unlikely. This afternoon's 2362.75 bias-up target is now "unfinished business above." Add it to 2364.50. Back under 2356.00 would suggest another downdraft underway, potentially undermining that sellers have been weak-handed. Otherwise, fresh highs today remain possible, if not also likely.

Happy Passover to those subscribers celebrating this evening and this week. Ranging through Monday afternoon's bias environment, and into the final hour, is the opposite of trending. It's consolidating. Consolidating entirely in positive territory is a sort of anchoring. Strong hands don't typically wait until the session's last possible window before breaking lower, not from an anchored consolidation in positive territory. That describes Monday's late dip. It began from the upper-end of the afternoon's 2354.50-2360.00 range, collapsing to its lower-end during the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Still in positive territory, the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring eked out fresh afternoon lows down to 2351.75. Still in positive territory. Anxiousness ahead of Yellen's post-close speaking engagement? Some quarterly earnings due? More global geopolitical concerns? Limited participation ahead of the evening's Passover holiday celebrations? Whatever prevented resolving up through the close, it wasn't able to turn the market negative. Of course, there's nothing inherently bullish about closing unchanged. Regardless of the potential downside that was avoided, the market remains in proximity to starting down that road. Monday's open needed only to avoid initial weakness for maintaining the potential of a morning rally. Due to probing above Thu-Fri ~2361.00 highs without closing above them, Tuesday's open needs to rally quickly, if not already be rallying overnight. The only unfinished business is above, now at 2362.75 in addition to 2364.50. Opening lower anyway would be bearish. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2360.25 2357.00 ...would target  2365.75 2362.50 Bias-down: under  2352.25 2349.00 ...would target 2346.75  2343.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.