Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 04-14-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping up Wednesday quickly probed a fresh high, but it's only reaction down was shallow and brief. Along with being in the orbit of "unfinished business above," the pattern resolved differently from the three prior sessions' gaps up. Extending higher satisfied those attractions with a new trend high close at 2076.00. Afternoon buyers gained no traction for their effort, but higher objectives were created. Overnight action's new info... Room for a pullback down to 2068.25-2069.00 was almost fully utilized while sliding into and out of Europe's opens. That has been recovered entirely back up to unchanged. If, then... So long as Thursday's open doesn't reject Wednesday's close above 2073.00, extending the rally would next target 2082.25-2086.50, and potentially 2105.00. Yesterday's post-open rally wasn't especially strong, but that could have been enhanced by testing the minimum target overnight. Not already probing higher has missed a preservation tactic that many durable rallies use. So, rather than create unfinished business above to help ensure a later recovery, a post-open pullback testing 2068.25-2069.00 might be unavoidable. And if not brief, then a bigger reversal would start becoming likely. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2077.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2064.50 would be likely to trigger the 2068.25 bias-down signal.

Pre-open surge's reversal is recovered. The pre-open surge above yesterday's highs to 2079.50 was a singular leg. Lacking complexity, it was not a "new Globex trend extreme," so it does not require intraday retest. It was retraced back under yesterday's high so the 2076.50 opening print did not qualify as a gap up. Strong-handed buyers wouldn't have allowed that. This encouraged selling the open, which then extended down to 2071.75.

The 2077.00 bias-up signal was tested post-open but didn't trigger at 10:15, putting into play a test of the 2068.25 bias-down signal. Without printing a fresh low after 10:15, exiting the bias environment above the bias-up signal would invalidate the bias-down signal's test.

In fact, a buy signal triggered above 2075.00, already touching 2076.50. Extending any higher should probe the bias-up signal by either several ticks or by several points. Otherwise, back under 2074.00 would signal the bounce had failed, and resume the post-open decline targeting a test of overnight lows.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2088.75 2082.25 ...would target  2092.75  2086.50 Bias-down: under  2079.25  2073.00 ...would target 2073.00  2066.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

For all of Thursday's twists and turns, it all took place in a relatively narrow range. Even narrower than Wednesday. And Wednesday had warned already that momentum was lapsing when buyers failed gain traction for their effort to produce a new trend high close. So, not gapping up Thursday prevented any rally from being durable. That didn't prevent probing fresh highs anyway. The pre-open high was reversed back into Wednesday's range. Its intraday retest was reversed, too, after essentially fulfilling the next higher objective at 2082.25 to within 2-3 ticks. So, no higher objectives were put into play. The only potential higher objective was essentially neutralized. And the afternoon was spent fluctuating narrowly around Wednesday's high. To the degree that Thursday's restraint or inhibition was due to expiration's influence, expiration is likely to influence Friday's price action. And its influence Friday isn't required to be restrained or inhibited. That should be interesting for the afternoon's active bullish WedEX signal. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2086.25  2079.75 ...would target  2091.50  2085.25 Bias-down: under 2079.75 2073.25 ...would target  2074.00  2067.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.