Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 05-06-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping up 14-16 points Thursday would have rejected the ongoing downtrend. Wednesday's night's action fully tested that limit up to 2060.00, but greeted Thursday's open at 2051.00. The morning slid back to unchanged around 2045.00, and the afternoon bias environment began by attacking Wednesday's 2039.00 low to within 2 ticks. Two bounces testing 2045.00 defined sideways ranging into the close, as Friday's approaching Employment Situation report inhibited trending. Overnight action's new info... Thursday afternoon's choppy ranging has essentially persisted, but decline seems eager to get on with it. Bounces still holding tests of the 2045.00 area. But their interim dips have probed momentarily to fresh lows at 2038.00. The latest bounce is being followed by a third drop to 2038.00, yet to recover. If, then... The decline has already identified its next objective at 2035.00 or 2030.00. I think the latter more so than the former, if not also lower to a 2027.00 handle. Buyers have ineffectually expended a lot of energy recently. Wednesday afternoon's bounce had originated from just above 2039.00, where the bounce was retraced. Wednesday night's bounce (and Thursday's gap up) expended a lot of energy, too, also ineffectually, as we now know by its complete retracement to fresh lows. The ongoing decline should have little difficulty aggressively exploiting all of that failed buying pressure and chipping away at support, especially with the weekend's impending illiquidity... If not -- if the decline's overnight eagerness becomes overly-pessimistic -- then the likely alternative is a substantial rally. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2042.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2041.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2039.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2033.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal under its 2034.75 bias-down target at 10:15.

Open's surge maintains the week's pattern of failed bounces. The 2030.50 low had recovered to greet the open at essentially the 2034.75 bias-down target. Post-open action surged to 2046.75. And never extended higher. Instead, two dips tested the 2041.00 bias-down signal as support. The second test did poorly. Eventually.

Initially, the 2041.00 bias-down signal had held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. But eventually, the 2041.00 bias-down signal gave way through 10:30. It was too late to trigger, and too late to invoke a grace period. The no-bias was simply invalidated.

Tuesday afternoon's corrective bounce was retraced entirely Wednesday night's rally into Thursday's gap up also fell back to its interim lows. That pattern didn't require repeating this morning, but it did require issuing a warning in the chaRTroom. And a sell signal triggered on its second attempt. Now the open and bias-down target are being retested. They are natural support that might produce a bounce. Extending down to the 2030.00 objective has room for noise down to 2027.25.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2050.00 2044.25 ...would target  2056.00  2050.50 Bias-down: under  2039.50  2034.00 ...would target 2033.00  2027.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open dip recovers to launch afternoon rally. This morning could have staged a tremendous rally. Has it only been delayed to the afternoon?

Recovering the open's tests of both bias-down parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters, essentially 2051.00 and 2056.00. But the open's surge was retraced back down to the morning's 2034.75 bias-down target. The bias environment exit had recovered back up to the morning's 2041.00 bias-down signal as resistance.

The noon hour's dip to 2037.25 was recovered to test the afternoon's 2044.25 bias-up signal. It wasn't triggered, but the afternoon's 2050.50 bias-up target is being tested, anyway.

I had described during this pre-market Tour one bullish scenario that could avoid thoroughly testing the lower-end of early-April's consolidation. Closing above 2056.00 or even above 2059.50 is basically the parameter, which is another 4-7 points higher. The extra post-open dip did help to refuel buyers, and RSIs are overbought at the 2052.25 high, so a reaction down would likely recover -- albeit from 2045.00 or 2042.50, and not necessarily today.

This is interesting, for how uninteresting it is. It's difficult to reverse intraday trending that exits a Friday's bias environment beyond the session's other timing window extremes. That doesn't require extending the trend, although that's often the result. And it doesn't prohibit reversing anyway, although that's rare -- and short-lived when it happens.

Friday's bias environment began lapsing at its 2050.50 bias-up target. It had been probed already up to 2052.25 a couple of times. Narrow ranging around it up to 2052.25 persisted for another hour.

Doesn't seem interesting, I know. But considering the session had recovered from probing negative territory, maintaining the recover is actually pretty interesting. More so, the recovery came from pinting new lows for the ongoing decline, new lows that had satisfied the decline's 2030.00 and 2035.00 objectives Closing above at least 2056.00 would have been more interesting, confirming the decline has ended. Gapping up sufficiently Monday would serve by proxy, and be more capable of launching a recovery. Otherwise, resuming the decline could still hold a retest of Friday's pre-open lows down to 2027.00 before suggesting the decline is extending. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

The link to this weekend's Saturday Review will be sent overnight, well ahead of the 9;30am ET start.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2060.75 2055.00 ...would target  2066.50  2061.00 Bias-down: under 2046.50  2041.00 ...would target 2039.75  2034.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.