Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Surging 40 points overnight to 2976.00 formed a "new Globex trend extreme" that was reversed even more sharply down to 2931.00 before Tuesday's open. A bearish Globex-flip triggered but failed to prevent the morning from probing back into positive territory above 2947.00. No rally developed, but firming through the afternoon almost entered the final hour at fresh post-open highs attacking 2959.00. The upleg it would have launched it was ambushed by MRNA's headline, and its knee-jerk reaction collapsed to 2933.00. Late afternoon headlines take control of the session, and price collapsed further down to 2915.50. A bearish Isolation setup triggered. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday's late drop extended lower immediately to 2908.50, then immediately began consolidating. Rallying through midnight got to 2941.50, and corrected down to 2925.00. Europe's opens resumed the recovery, which is now attacking yesterday's highs up to 2954.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Gap-to-gap support between Friday's close and Monday's open is between 2885.00-2891.00. Late-afternoon knee-jerk reactions are vulnerable to extending the following day, even after retracing overnight. Gapping up is still vulnerable to trending back down, unless the open were to gain traction by extending higher. The reward for gaining traction could be to retest Tuesday night's 2976.25 Globex high. Otherwise, renewing the reaction down could probe overnight lows down to 2901.00 and lower. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2935.00 would be likely to trigger the 2929.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2950.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2943.00 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal.

Overnight rally attracts reinforcements. The 2957.25 pre-open high attacked yesterday's last high to within 5 ticks, and the 2954.50 open attacked the origin of yesterday's late collapse to within 2-3 ticks. The opening range extended to higher highs attacking 2963.00, suggesting the Relentless Overnight Trending had attracted intraday reinforcements to extend through the morning. So, we assume that yesterday's organic break higher underway has resumed since absorbing the MRNA detour. Its structural reward was likely to be the prior night's "new Globex trend extreme," its calculable objective being just another 3 ticks higher to 2977.00. Absent any interim pullback under 2963.50 which would target 2957.00-2958.40, upside momentum remains intact. Nothing requires a positive close, so we'll be sensitive to any reactions from testing 2977.00 for potential to reverse momentum back down.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2983.00 2978.00 ...would target 2997.50 2992.50 Bias-down: under 2974.00 2969.00 ...would target 2965.00 2960.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Dropping from within 2 ticks of Monday night's high. 2976.25 had formed Monday night with complexity that qualified as a new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest. I like to see that include the actual print as they always have been. This morning's retest came within 2 ticks, which isn't worth quibbling over. Separately, a calculable objective up to 2977.00 was also likely, and attacking it to within 6 ticks qualifies to neutralize it. Reacting down since then has been timed with the Senate passing a law to delist companies that are foreign-controlled, aimed at China. Probing this afternoon's 2969.00 and 2960.00 bias-down parameters to 2956.00 is now reacting up. Reversing down durably is difficult considering the knee-jerk reaction catalyst, and the upcoming FOMC Minutes. A bounce has room to test the 2969.00 bias-down signal until the bias environment begins lapsing. Closing today above this morning's highs would be bullish, still requiring confirmation tomorrow, for signaling the next higher objective in-play at 3288.00. Closing today back under yesterday's 2958.50 high would not be bullish. Closing ever back under yesterday's 2916.50 close would be bearish.

Tuesday's late MRNA headline was retraced entirely into Wednesday's open. The open confirmed Relentless Overnight Trending had attracted reinforcements, extending the rally through the morning. Its 2977.00 target was met to within 5 ticks and Monday's 2976.25 new Globex trend extreme to within 2 ticks. Reacting down on the Senate's anti-China stock vote bottomed at the FOMC Minutes release's test of 2955.00. Its reaction up to 2971.00 ranged sideways through the close. Although relatively shallow, the mid-day pullback's selling pressure held the opening range as support. That's bullish for its potential to rally into the close, but there was no rally into the close. Perhaps the rally patiently reserved its buying pressure for Thursday morning. We'll know by its gap up, which would be required for not gaining traction Wednesday afternoon. The 2966.00 cash session close was still overlapping Monday's 2965.00 high to avoid putting into play 3288.00. Be careful with shorts if early strength isn't being rejected through the bias environment exit. The seasonality of the 3-day holiday weekend makes reversing the prevailing trend difficult. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2979.50 2974.00 ...would target 2993.50 2988.00 Bias-down: under 2963.00 2957.50 ...would target 2953.50 2948.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.