Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 05-26-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... A sudden reaction down reversed Wednesday afternoon's required retest of the morning’s overbought RSIs at 2092.00. Despite being late-afternoon and attacking the 2086.00 prior low, the plunge was retraced entirely to 2092.50. It reacted down just as sharply into the close. But the close was well into positive territory, confirming Tuesday's breakout. The afternoon's 2084.75 bias-up target remained unfinished business. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's last sharp reversal down extended lower overnight to 2082.50. Firming long before Europe's opens has extended back up to 2091.00, which is being retested after an interim dip to 2085.25. If, then... Having entrenched itself, the rally can afford to hesitate again with another pullback. Like the overnight dip, it's likely to be shallow and brief, so that the ongoing recovery can maintain a steep slope. A little deeper into the mid-to-low 2070's would still be effective. Regardless, a correction isn't required, but likely if the open isn't already rallying. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2087.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2092.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2095.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Neither bias signal even touched. Yesterday afternoon and overnight action ranged narrowly, no matter how choppily. So, there's no actual pattern that reflects buying and selling pressure, or a trigger to unleash it, and a target that satisfies it. Execution is based only on retracement calculations and extensions. All guided within the context of bigger picture influences gleaned from price action through yesterday's close. That context is the likelihood for today would likely be about backing-and-filling. The confirmed breakout has entrenched the rally, so that it can afford to rest while weak-handed sellers trap themselves. The rally didn't gain traction yesterday afternoon, so extending higher this morning was unlikely, or likely to fail.

Unfinished business above at 2094.75 could have coaxed price higher to fail later. Opening strength limited that to piercing overnight highs by 1 tick at 2091.75, also an attack on yesterday morning's high to within 1 tick.

The reaction down to 2084.75 is reacting up 4 points. Another point is possible while remaining well within the range. Back under 2086.50 would signal fresh lows, having room down to this morning's 2080.50 bias-down signal.

It's probably a dry cleaners morning, but not necessarily a dry cleaners afternoon -- a Fed speaker is scheduled during the noon hour. Without pulling back more deeply first, resuming the rally during the final hour might require the rubber band effect of a violent momentary blip-down.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2093.25 2090.75 ...would target  2097.75 2095.50 Bias-down: under  2086.50  2084.25 ...would target 2081.75  2079.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Shallow pullback's expiration approaching. Today's likelihood for a shallow pullback has been validated, so far. There's still room for a slightly lower intraday low down to 2080.50, but it's not necessary. This afternoon's 2084.25 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks before triggering no-bias. No-bias makes price action likely to be contained between its bias signals. Trending beyond either signal is unlikely. But "trending" from one signal to the other is possible. It may even be likely -- especially if the shallow pullback intends to resolve today.

I would prefer buying another attack on session lows, if that opportunity presents itself. Otherwise, firming back toward session highs would become well-positioned to break higher when the bias environment begins lapsing less than an hour from now.

Breaking under 2084.25 would extend the delay into a detour, probably targeting 10 points lower. Ultimately, that would still likely be bullish, stretching the rubber band to snap back up into the three-day weekend.

Thursday afternoon's bias environment exit was slightly above the noon hour's high. The 3:10-3:20 window firmed its way to fresh afternoon highs. Neither was decisive, and combining them doesn't greatly enhance the whether the rally gained traction for Thursday's efforts. Regardless, any reward the effort earned hasn't yet been awarded. The last half-hour reacted down from 2090.50 to 2087.00. But that has been recovered to a fresh high at 2091.00. The ongoing narrow range that began after Wednesday morning's surge doesn't require resolving either way Friday. Sponsorship is difficult to generate during thinning participation (as if this week weren't already lightly attended) ahead of the three-day weekend. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to generate, too. So just trying to resolve the range could be enough to produce a significant move, or a rubber band effect. There's a catalyst for that. Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak Friday during the afternoon bias environment. one hour after Friday's open. She may reinforce trending underway already in anticipation of her remarks, or prove they were overly-discounted and trigger a reversal. With three days of illiquidity just minutes away, any reaction is likely to be very aggressive, if not altogether brief. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2095.00 2092.75 ...would target  2100.75  2098.50 Bias-down: under  2085.75  2083.50 ...would target 2079.25  2077.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.