Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 05-27-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
The sentiment of several dips during holiday trading bled into Tuesday''s open, which gapped down from 2124.25 and trended down sharply through the morning to 2100.25. Bouncing into the morning bias environment''s exit resolved down to new lows at 2096.00 as the afternoon bias environment''s exit. The final hour''s bounce to 2101.50 extended to 2107.00 into the Globex close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Tuesday''s post-close surge was clearly weak-handed. Backing-and-filling through Europe''s opens didn''t find a bid until testing 2101.50, then surging to 2107.75. Not surprisingly, that bid came amid Grexit news. Surprisingly, this morning''s Grexit news is seemingly worse than what was scapegoated for yesterday''s opening slide.

If, then...
So, die by the Grexit, re-birth by the Grexit? As much as Greece exiting the Euro creeps inevitably closer, sell-offs on its fears have been temporary. The ugly Euro chart makes the news seem closer, but S&Ps will shrug it off again if a second consecutive lower close is avoided today. Regardless of this pre-open fiming amid worse Grexit news, S&Ps still must gap up and extend higher to avoid at least retesting yesterday''s low.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2108.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2106.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2101.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

The open gapped up to the 2106.75 bias-up signal, pierced 2107.00-2108.00 resistance, and promptly reversed down. Trending back down at all was likely to start quickly, but not without limitations. I suspected that already touching 2102.50 just 3 minutes later was scaring away more sellers than it was attracting.

Live by the Grexit, die by the Grexit, repeat...

In fact, price firmed back up to 2108.00. The price surged on headlines touting a deal nearing with Greece''s creditors. The 2113.00 bias-up target was probed up to 2115.75. Overbought RSIs there require its eventual retest.

Live by the Gre... Wait, no... Die by... I lost my place...

Choppy ranging was ultimately resisted by the 2113.00 bias-up target through 10:15, and the bias-up signal did not renew. Another headline has somewhat denied the earlier one.

Being a bias-up environment, extending higher remains possible, but that''s not common when the target was already met and held through 10:15. Still, back above 2114.00 would signal the recovery extending higher.

Be sure that''s not just a headline reaction, because otherwise price can quickly collapse after neutralizing the attraction back to overbought RSIs at the 2115.75 high. Regardless, the bias-up environment could dip to 2106.75-2107.50 without reversing momentum down.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2120.00
2117.50
...would target 2126.25
2124.00
Bias-down: under 2111.25
2109.00
...would target 2105.50
2103.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having extended down considerably on two consecutive sell signals, testing 1.0820 support reacted up Wednesday on favorable Grexit rumors, holding the 1.0910 bounce limit, and maintaining the 1.0750 target.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only shallow weakness Tuesday night and Wednesday following Tuesday''s deep break to 1186.00, so the break wasn''t confirmed, but at least a probe of fresh low remains likely.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down at Wednesday''s open probed Tuesday''s low, but the session only ranged sideways narrowly instead of extending down another dime to 16.55 support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday''s flight-to-safety wasn''t needed Wednesday, allowing for at least partial retracement from 156-11 down to 155-11. But that was recovered almost entirely as stocks climbed even further, which undermines the decline from resuming soon.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows testing 57.45 at Wednesday''s open was recovered temporarily into positive territory, but only to reverse back down to the lows and still targeting 55.00.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Spiking up at Wednesday''s open tried to confirm that Tuesday''s late recovery had ultimately held the 2.86 pullback objective. But the session held within Tuesday''s range, needing to recover 2.91 for a recovery to be credible.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2129.25
2127.00
...would target 2135.25
2133.00
Bias-down: under 2119.75
2117.50
...would target 2114.25
2112.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, MET BIAS-DOWN TARGET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.