Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 07-16-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Piercing Tuesday night''s fresh high 2107.50 by 1 tick Wednesday morning expended the day''s selling pressure Ranging narrowly around unchanged through two timing windows waited for the afternoon''s bias environment to begin lapsing. Then a 10-point plunge touched 2095.00, which was recovered to end the day essentially unchanged. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low. WedEX did not trigger.

Overnight action''s new info...
The plunge''s recovery soon extended to probe fresh highs at 2108.50. A shallow pullback soon resumed the rally, most recently touching 2113.50.

If, then...
Monday''s confirmed breakout was either going to begin a correction Wednesday, or else extend relentlessly to fulfill its target of new highs. Wednesday afternoon''s plunge had the opportunity to be that correction''s beginning. Completely retracing the plunge had extra opportunity to start that correction, having neutralized the plunge''s oversold condition while leaving unfinished business below at the low''s oversold RSIs. Yet, the rally soon resumed and extended to fresh highs overnight. Thursday''s gap up (currently indicated, with Draghi yet to speak this morning) will be the last opportunity to initiate a corrective dip through Friday morning -- more unfinished business would be left outstanding above, with both a new opening gap up and a late bullish WedEX signal. Otherwise, not yet reversing down this morning could extend the trend through Monday''s open.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2115.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2111.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2108.50 would be likely also at least to trigger the 2107.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2104.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Sellers take two swings at regaining control.

The premise for a corrective dip relied largely on sellers rejecting the pre-open surge to 2115.50. Which they did, reacting down to the 2111.00 bias-up target.

Reacting up 5 points from that 2111.00 support wasn''t optimal for the premise, but neither was it invalidation. In fact, 2111.00 was retested again.

But that dip also bounced -- so far, only up to 2114.00, and not to its origin, let alone through a 2114.25 buy signal. And while bouncing, the 10:15 and 10:30 timing windows have come and gone, without downtrending underway.

So, this morning is a bias-up environment. Its target was being touched at 10:15, instead of renewing the bias-up. Fresh lows could test the 2107.25 bias-up signal as support. It''s too late to invalidate it.

Unless 2107.25 is probed after exiting the bias environment, the afternoon could resume the rally. A deep corrective dip isn''t any likelier.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2124.00
2117.00
...would target 2128.75
2122.00
Bias-down: under 2117.75
2111.00
...would target 2112.50
2105.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Stopping optimistically short of touching prior lows Wednesday revealed weak-handed buying pressure, which Thursday''s gap down testing 1.0865 proved. Bouncing back to the decline''s 1.0935 target as resistance, the opening gap reflects lower lows yet to come.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday to Wednesday''s lows and no lower reflects weak-handed selling pressure. It''s not necessarily a bottom, and won''t necessarily avoid touching 1138.00. But probing above 1151.00 would be credible for extending higher without leaving unfinished business below.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday was reversed briefly into positive territory before spending the afternoon ranging narrowly around unchanged. Probing above Thursday''s 15.15 intraday high would be likely to extend in that direction.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday''s tenuous close above 150-24 was retraced to test the 150-08 pullback limit down to 150-00 Thursday morning. It held, and rallying through the noon hour to fresh highs at 151-20. A second consecutive higher close would confirm Wednesday''s breakout, regardless of any unfinished business below being left outstanding.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday''s probing under 51.00 may be exploiting the continued delay in rallying that has made fresh lows targeting 48.00 increasingly likely.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday''s EIA report was negligible. This, despite the pattern''s excuse for reversing down since Wednesday''s inside day had neutralized the attraction back up to Tuesday''s 2.91 opening gap up. The 2.83 pullback limit was attacked, and its break would still target at least 2.77. But any new strength through 2.91 would be credible for extending higher intraday.