Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Without having gained traction Tuesday afternoon, extending the rally Wednesday morning would require first gapping up. But even that wouldn't require extending, as the gap up creates room for the rally to allow selling without it damaging the chart. Wednesday's reaction down from its 3233.00 pre-open high slid through noon down to 3192.00, and never probed negative territory. That dip and a shallower afternoon dip never attracted stronger-handed buyers to sponsor another upleg, despite a late surge that momentarily attacked 3226.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Extending just a little higher initially up to 3228.50 only stretched the rubber band to snap back down. Relentless overnight trending has retraced both of yesterday's lows, still apparently searching for strong-handed buyers to sponsor the next upleg. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Having failed to gain traction again for its intraday effort, extending the rally Thursday morning would require first gapping up. Not gapping up, as is currently indicated, suggests more backing-and-filling again this morning, potentially down to 3160.00 before becoming unlikely to resolve in a new upleg. Greeting the open with the relentless overnight trending setup intact could trend up through the open to signal early that the pullback is already done. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3201.50 would be likely to trigger the 3208.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3184.25 would be likely also to exceed the 3190.75 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

Dry cleaners morning. It's helpful to know when the market is likely to trend for the next set period, let alone its direction and even its target. Sometimes the market doesn't want to trend, and it's helpful to signal that, too. This is my dry cleaners setup: Any 3 of the first hour's 5 15-minute checkpoints overlap the same relevant level (or each other). Trending during the morning bias environment becomes unlikely the longer it is delayed. Preferably, one of those 3 confirming checkpoints will be at least one of the last 2 -- 10:15 and/or 10:30 -- to help confirm the condition is persistent. Its result is to chop around aimlessly until the bias window begins lapsing, or later. For some traders, this environment is better spent running errands, e.g. dry cleaners. Others may be interested in fading extremes for a return to the range's other end. Be aware that breakouts remain possible during a dry cleaners morning. The setup forms because of a lack of sponsorship, making it more reactive to an artificial catalyst like a headline surprise. But its knee-jerk reaction should retrace back into the range. One other benefit to a dry cleaners setup is that it can reveal a relevant price area (this morning it is 3195.00-3196.00). This morning meanwhile triggered its 3208.00 bias-down signal. Its 3190.75 bias-down target has yet to be met post-10:15, which isn't required but likely. Having held a test of yesterday's low through the open, this morning's gap down is only noise within the range.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3217.00 3208.00 ...would target 3229.75 3220.75 Bias-down: under 3199.50 3190.75 ...would target 3195.75 3177.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

REMINDER: I'M AWAY TODAY FOR THE FINAL HOUR. This morning's bias enviroment was every bit as challenging as the Dry Cleaners setup was established to warn against. And as can often be the case, now the afternoon is threatening similar choppy, sloppy randomness. By afternoon, I mean the bias environment, which begins lapsing at 2:30. Trending would still not be required to begin, but the window of opportunity would re-open. As for the interim hour, neither of this afternoon's bias signals was even attacked, triggering no-bias. Testing either bias signal during the no-bias window would be likely to hold.

Despite its overnight surges and gapping up to probe fresh recovery highs, the rally didn't extend Wednesday. No traction was gained for the effort. Two intraday dips were recovered only to their origin, having failed to attract stronger-handed buyers. The consequences were obvious Thursday as the session ranged narrowly, choppily, and aimlessly throughout. Greeting the open with overnight relentless trending from 3228.50 down to 3188.50 attracted neither reinforcements nor counter-trend sponsorship. Despite triggering bias-down and already testing its target, a Dry cleaners setup formed that warned the morning might be better spent running errands. The afternoon's no-bias environment behaved similarly, maintaining the morning's 3190.50-3206.00 range. The final hour's dip to the range's lower-end reacted up to 3212.00, but quickly recognized its mistake and slid back toward the lows through the close. Friday's expiration may have only one opportunity through the open to establish any intraday trending. And expiration trending can be persistent. So can expirations that don't establish early trending. Gapping up or down will be irrelevant without extending through the open. Having said that, gapping open and not extending would still be vulnerable to reversing back to unchanged. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3226.75 3217.75 ...would target 3242.00 3233.00 Bias-down: under 3207.00 3198.25 ...would target 3193.00 3184.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.