Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 07-20-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday gapped up above Friday's 2461.00 prior highs and trended up throughout the day to touch 2471.00. The biggest drawdown followed the open's surge to 2466.00, which was retraced to attack its 2462.00 maximum pullback limit. Since Tuesday's dip had recovered, Wednesday's close qualifies as a breakout from a multi-session range. WedEX triggered actively bullish, subject to Thursday's open gapping down back under prior highs. Overnight action's new info... That's different. Ranging narrowly last night broke higher at Europe's opens, surging to new highs at 2474.00. Playing catch-up to yesterday's gains is fostering optimism. Friday's surge to new highs was treated skeptically, not only Sunday night but also Monday. The behavior isn't so overly-optimistic as to be bearish from a contrarian perspective, but it does set a pace that probably won't cope well with not being maintained. Meanwhile, the overnight probe has consolidated back down to the Globex open's high, centered around this morning's 2472.50 bias-up signal. If, then... A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm Wednesday's breakout and then require at least one more higher close. We'll see. The ongoing template suggests fresh highs will be short-lived, and probing higher overnight or this morning doesn't ensure maintaining positive territory this afternoon. But confirmation of a higher close Thursday would buy the rally a lot of time. Gapping up above yesterday's highs could form an anchor that also buys the rally a lot of time -- so long as the anchor fully forms by extending higher through the open. Not extending a gap up, or not even gapping up despite already probing fresh highs overnight, would undermine an attempt to extend the rally today. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2474.25 would be likely to trigger the 2472.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2470.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... okay good morning and welcome it is Thursday it's time for Thursday's morning market tour we have new highs and if you heard new highs and not an unusual way gapping up trending up extending higher had Tuesday Tuesday afternoon head Tuesday's closed dipped instead of firming or ranging sideways or not dipping been gabbing up above prioritize would have triggered a session Long Valley set up and a session long rally looks like this in a lot of cases often with one time and window that I'll dip under the prior timing Windows High but such a long rallies timing window but one probes the prior timing Windows high as indicated at the open to expect that we didn't know to expect that necessarily at the open by the session long Rally Set up because Tuesday as this is necessary for the setup is to be rejection the Gap up has to be rejecting this was just extending if it were a sessional rally we know that this morning was likely to probe your eyes extend yesterday's rally in other words whether or not it was sustained biased upward or downward based on what actions they took the Wednesday's clothes and Wednesdays clothes being real or to the degree that it was influential Wednesday's close relative to Prior price action now this is not multi-session trending single breakout can't be both can't break out in multi-session Ranger If This Were multi-session ranging we'd have a very reliable in this whole setup with other bells and whistles considered we have a very reliable wed x bullish wed x actively bullish wed x we do have an actively bullish way that's because it's a breakout of Breakout by its nature tends to be with very few exceptions a actively bullish wed x it can be it can be invalidated at the open it doesn't look like it's going to be but when it's just a single session there's still a break out there's still I'm sorry I'm trending there is still an opportunity to invalidated by gapping Down Under the entirety of Wednesday's range and preferably back under Pryor High as that Wednesday's breakout had recovered I Donuts certainly not in the works here but if Thursday is open where to print Under prioritize then we'd have a invalidated actively bullet X and that in itself would be Friday morning on Friday afternoon and Monday morning what's today's show your hand Mario draghi coming out so long as that is retraced reacted up this should be alone right here otherwise we are headed lower the get the high won't be retested if today's open compensates for the delay in extending down the Looney we talked about yesterday as potentially forming a setup having no unfinished business above and yet having a new High clothes new trend High clothes closing under Tuesday's low Tuesday 7895 Lowe would reverse the trend down would reverse sorry momentum down at this point second consecutive lower clothes would confirm that the trend in Traverse Town but big rally here and no unfinished business above not the cell signal not unless it's not extended pretty immediately and then the year of course going to be most sensitive to the ECB statement coming out shortly 11510 11525 support being tested looks like headlines Crossing to this area is a cell signal if it's break is maintained it is meanwhile you know the reason why I had cell signals because it's support and such a stance will support that's a long as it is if it's broken bounce .

Gap up retraced. Unchanged is natural support. Yesterday's unchanged is its 2471.00 cash session close. And a 4-1/2 point slide probed it by 1 point in time to snatch a clean bias-up signal above 2472.50. The slide developed in time to invoke the grace period, now putting into play an offsetting test of the 2463.50 bias-down signal.

Presumably, the drop was triggered by news of the Russia investigation/witch hunt expanding to President Trump's business dealings. Extrapolating from an interview released last night in which Trump said this would be going too far, Special Counsel Mueller would be fired shortly. The market is obviously concerned with the extra depths of uncertainty that would/will bring.

Immediate fallout has extended down to 2465.50. That's essentially yesterday morning's "lower prior highs." Its test is reacting up 7 points while still being the first reaction up from the previous trend's extreme. Oversold RSIs require an eventual retest, which this morning would likely reach 2463.50. Otherwise, recovering 2469.75-2470.25 would start to signal the news was absorbed already -- that's being probed now by more than 2 points, and wasn't yet touched when I began writing this sentence. As for the gap up, it did not extend higher, so it is not an anchor that preserves the uptrend. It was maintained through the open, so its 2474.00 opening print does require an eventual intraday retest, however that may resolve. And the 2476.25 overnight high is  a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires eventual retest intraday, too.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2476.50 2473.75 ...would target  2481.00  2478.50 Bias-down: under  2469.00  2467.00 ...would target 2464.75 2462.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Skipping across resistance . This morning's plunge bounced back up to 2473.75. Breaking back under 2471.25 had signaled momentum reversing down this morning. Confirmed under 2469.25, it reached 2467.75. Extending 2 more points would have neutralized the oversold RSIs at the low. Extending down 4 points would have fulfilled the 2463.50 "unfinished business below." The noon hour recovered back up to the 2473.75 bounce high. That's also this afternoon's bias-up signal, and despite fluctuating around it, the signal didn't trigger. This is a no-bias environment, and its 2473.75 bias-up signal should define the window's upper-end. It's still being overlapped. Meanwhile, the gap back up to today's 2474.00 open has been retested. Not arbitrarily, but from testing "lower prior highs" first. This won't be left outstanding as "unfinished business." The 2476.25 "new Globex trend extreme" must be retested eventually, too. Not necessarily today, although it could be. Neutralizing an attraction above during a no-bias environment can produce a significant reversal. That's what happened Tuesday morning when the bias-down target was met in a no-bias environment. That was 25-30 points lower. Regardless, back under 2471.50 would signal another attempt at probing fresh session lows.

Thursday afternoon's 2470.50-2474.50 range overlapped or was supported by Wednesday's 2471.00 cash session high. The closing bar was overlapping it, too. If it's confirmation of Wednesday's breakout, then it's not optimal. No higher close is required. Probing higher highs is possible. The 2476.25 "new Globex trend extreme" requires an intraday retest at some point. Closing near it in its orbit doesn't make its near-term test any likelier. Similarly, closing further away from "unfinished business below" at 2463.50 doesn't make it less likely to be tested first. Regardless, trend extremes don't usually form into expirations. And the bullish WedEX already suggests an upward afternoon bias Friday -- from what level, we don't yet know. An overnight or morning drop that neutralizes 2463.50 would help to clear the way to trending up into and out of the weekend. Simply extending higher without another detour down might be inhibited. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2479.00 2476.50 ...would target 2484.50 2482.00 Bias-down: under 2471.50 2469.00 ...would target 2466.00  2463.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.