Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Trending up overnight was accelerated by the reaction to the EU's $1T pandemic stimulus package. My 3271.00 target was probed by 2 points, and the complexity formed a new Globex trend extreme. Tuesday's 3263.75 gap up was above all prior highs. Ranging sideways around the open and hovering under the overnight highs was postured to break higher, but slid 25 points through the final hour down to 3239.25. Its last-minute reaction up to 3253.50 had reached only 3249.50 at the cash session close -- both new high closes, but either too short or too late to confirm Monday's breakout. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The late reaction up didn't hesitate extending higher into Globex. The late slide's origin was largely retraced to attack 3266.00. All of which was being reversed by midnight. Bouncing from unchanged had initially greeted Europe's opens' optimistically. But reversing back down from 3258.00 in reaction to another headline has slid back into Monday's range at 3227.25. Now a bounce is testing 3246.50, back into yesterday's late low. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The reaction down from fresh highs -- and now reactions -- are still likely just warning shots across the bow, for entering dangerous waters. If the catalyst to yesterday's late drop was a headline, then only gapping up to retrace at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the slide back above 3257.50 would avoid the reaction extending lower to some degree today. The overnight bounce was high enough, but not long enough. Now the question is whether the overnight slide has already fulfilled the headline reaction's likely follow-through. Probably not. Regardless, the reaction should be only temporary, having left unfinished business at Monday night's 3273.25 new Globex trend extreme, and Tuesday's 3263.75 gap above all prior highs. My 3271.00 rally objective clearly satisfies a lot of buying pressure, but its intraday test is still likely. So its premature reaction would make its retest likely to target 3288.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3236.25 would be likely to trigger the 3239.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3243.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3253.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3259.00 bias-up signal.

Perhaps a little too much optimism. Yesterday's highs require being retested eventually. But the final hour's headline reaction is likely to persist during this morning's bias timing window. And now the overnight headline's reaction is likely to be duplicated somewhat during this morning's bias timing window, too. The further selling is not required, only likely. Even after only rallying through the 3246.00 open, from 3243.00 up to 3261.00. That's a lot of optimism, and it would be credible for ignoring the otherwise likely morning weakness. But the open's optimists have run into resistance at this morning's 3259.00 bias-up signal. It held, and this morning is now a no-bias environment. An offsetting test of the 3239.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Reacting down since triggering no-bias has tested 3251.50. The post-open optimism and the required recovery suggest being prepared for another upleg. Exiting the bias environment above its bias-up signal would be credible for extending higher, anyway.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3268.50 3260.25 ...would target 3275.25 3277.00 Bias-down: under 3252.25 3244.00 ...would target 3240.00 3231.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Delay of game. Rallying through the first half-hour from 3246.00-3261.00 was retraced entirely down to 3244.50. Its recovery up to 3263.25 during the noon hour held the earlier high's test. That's not a recovery. It's a delay of the post-open duplication of headline reactions from yesterday and overnight. Now this afternoon has triggered no-bias. And this morning's bias objective remains outstanding, an offsetting test of its 3239.00 bias-down signal. Post-open lows are being attacked again down to 3247.00. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are oversold, so any near-term bounce is likely to fail. This afternoon's 3244.00 bias-down signal should define the window's lower-end, although no-bias trending could probe it to neutralize 3239.00. Rallying instead would likely be in reaction to an artificial catalyst like a headline, perhaps also explaining the delay of usual headline reaction follow-through.

An overnight reaction to escalating US-China tensions triggered a drop to fresh pullback lows at 3227.25. Wednesday's 3246.00 open quickly extended to 3261.00 and essentially defined the session's range. Two intraday dips were contained, as were two bounces, finally breaking higher through the last half-hour. That late surge neutralized two higher attractions: the required gap-fill back up to Tuesday's 3264.00 open above all prior highs, and the likely intraday test of the rally's 3271.00 objective. Only Monday night's 3273.25 new Globex trend extreme remains outstanding as requiring an intraday retest. Wednesday's restrained optimism suggests that its test would likely be probed to the next higher attraction at 3288.00. June's Complex Ascending Triangle suggests that wherever the peak, its reversal should soon follow, and extend down sharply. Meanwhile, Wednesday has left outstanding unfinished business at the afternoon's 3247.00 oversold RSIs, and the morning's 3239.00 bias objective. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3282.25 3274.00 ...would target 3296.50 3288.25 Bias-down: under 3268.75 3260.25 ...would target 3251.25 3243.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.