NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.Pre-Open Stock Market Plan - 7:10 AM
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Stock Market Opening Trends - 10:34 AM
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Tonight's Market Predictions - 11:59 AM
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Bias Summary - 4:14 PM
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Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Gap up retraces, but not reverses.
Rallying out of Europe's opens ultimately extended 10-11 points. Post-open enthusiasm did not follow. The 2478.00 opening print added a single tick before reversing back under this morning's 2477.00 bias-up target and Thursday's 2476.25 new Globex trend extreme.
The reaction also probed under "lower prior highs" down to 2472.50. It was already a little late for only threatening to reject the 2472.00 bias-up signal, let alone not even touching it. So it triggered. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met.
Overbought RSIs at the 2478.25 high don't require being retested since they develope3d during the open. But the 2478.00 opening print above all prior highs does require being filled. At least, at some point, not always before a more significant reaction down.
Filling the open's 2478.00 gap without exiting the bias environment above the open's high would suggest a top is forming. Meanwhile, back under 2473.75 at any time would start to signal momentum reversing down for a deeper correction.
TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2481.25
2478.75
...would target
2486.75
2484.25
Bias-down: under
2473.50
2471.00
...would target
2468.50
2466.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TEST BIAS-UP SIGNAL
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Tuesday's gap up to 2478.00 neutralized all unfinished business and attractions above. Just having delayed exploiting Monday's break lower had made fresh highs likely. Previously existing was the 2476.25 new Globex trend extreme that had preceded last Thursday's open. Yet to be an attraction was the morning's 2477.00 bias-up target, whose 2472.00 bias-up signal wouldn't trigger for another 45 minutes.
So, it's interesting that the rally didn't do anything to entrench itself. No afternoon bias-up target put into play, no uptrend gaining traction, no breakout close. Extending higher Wednesday depends upon gapping up above Tuesday's highs, or else delaying a rally until late-afternoon. Like, in reaction to the FOMC policy statement, or in reaction to its reaction. The next higher objectives would be 2484.00 and 2490.00.
Rolling over late Tuesday was too delayed and too muted to be reliable for extending down. At least, for extending down without delay or without backing-and-filling. Not without gapping down to and/or through Friday/Monday's "lower prior highs" at 2469.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2481.25
2478.75
...would target
2486.75
2484.25
Bias-down: under
2471.50
2469.00
...would target
2466.00
2463.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.