Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 08-03-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's close had recovered from its 2141.50 low back up to Thursday's 2153.50 low. That was still well under Monday's 2165.00 close. The requirement to test Thursday's low was neutralized, and now oversold RSIs at 2141.50 require a retest.. Overnight action's new info... Trending down shallowly overnight has nevertheless been relentless. Selling accelerated briefly as Europe's opens triggered a 6-point slide to 2145.25. That has since firmed to attack 2150.00. If, then... Closing at Thursday's 2153.50 low Tuesday suggests the current downleg is only temporary. Closing above Thursday's low could have suggested the downleg is done. Instead, a retest of Tuesday's 2141.50 low is likely, especially if Wednesday's open doesn't gap up. Entering the noon hour under Tuesday's low would suggest a much deeper downleg underway. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2142.50 would be likely to trigger the 2146.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2150.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Overnight dip recovered. 2150.50-2151.25 defined the open. And the open defined the peak of the bounce off the 2145.25 overnight low. Despite immediately reversing back down toward the overnight low, only 2147.00 support was touched, 1 tick above this morning's 2146.75 bias-down signal.

2147.00-2148.00 is relevant support. It was the room for noise under 2153.50's retest. That support is now chipped away in case it's retested today.

Meanwhile, au contraire.

2147.00's reaction recovered to fresh post-open highs at 2153.00. That eked higher to attack the 2155.50 bias-up signal, which was touched only now. Bias-up didn't trigger, and can't. But no-bias trending can still probe it up to 2158.00 while still being likely to reverse down. Back under 2151.25 would signal that reversal down underway already. Other than potential support at 2149.25, any lower should extend down aggressively to retest yesterday's 2141.25 low

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2161.75 2156.25 ...would target  2166.25  2161.00 Bias-down: under  2153.25  2148.00 ...would target 2148.50  2143.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Higher and higher highs, but lacking velocity. The morning's high touched its 2155.50 bias-up signal. Being a no-bias environment, it was required to define the range's upper-end. Coming after 10:30, nothing was required of Its reaction. And it did nothing, holding 2151.25 as support. Similarly, the afternoon bias environment 2156.25 bias-up signal has been touched. Nothing is required of its reaction, either. But back under 2153.00 and 2151.00 would be likely to attack or test 2148.00. Below there would still target yesterday's 2141.50 low.

The downleg signaled at Monday's open is a little off-track. Probing lower this morning and then recovering this afternoon was likely. Not probing lower this morning doesn't prevent this afternoon from rallying anyway, it's just less likely.

Wednesday had formed an Ascending Triangle. It was unlikely to break higher because it appeared around Tuesday's highs, during Wednesday morning, when probing above Tuesday's highs had required gapping up Wednesday morning. The Triangle could have broken lower, but that attempt ended as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. The reward was fresh highs up to 2158.00-2159.00, largely produced by the close. The break higher came too late to gain traction. Gapping up Thursday could extend higher anyway, targeting a retest of Sunday night's 2177.75 "new Globex trend extreme." Otherwise, greeting Thursday's open already in decline would still target a retest of Tuesday's oversold RSIs at 2141.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2164.75 2159.00 ...would target  2169.75  2165.25 Bias-down: under  2156.00  2150.50 ...would target 2150.25  2144.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.