Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 08-25-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
The biggest one-day negative print Monday also produced one of the biggest intraday rallies. And one of the biggest intraday drops from there. Price trended down into the close -- twice, as the afternoon''s 76-point slide from 1950.00 down to 1873.50 hiccuped to 1922.00, and then plunged again to 1867.50.

Overnight action''s new info...
1920.00 is Tuesday morning''s bias-up target, so it''s not coincidental the overnight rally initially peaked there and then double-topped there ahead of China''s open. Dropping down to 1885.50 was recovered as the overnight rally resumed, eventually probing above 1936.00. Consolidating there blipped-up on news of a China rate cut and devaluation. A "blip-up" in this environment means double-digits, attacking yesterday''s highs up to 1948.50. A 12-point reaction down has now largely recovered.

If, then...
Is a rally setting up for today, or is the overnight rally being set-up? Yesterday afternoon''s 1947.00 high printed as the bias environment got underway. So, after trending down into the close, gapping up above 1947.00 could form a "session-long rally" setup. The missing element would be to maintain the gap up through the open. Otherwise, the setup can become as bearish as it would have been bullish. The bearish consequence would be attracted down to fill the gaps at yesterday''s 1886.00 and 1878.00 cash and futures closes. There isn''t much attraction above except for the gaps back to Friday''s 1968.00 and 1970.00 closes.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1910.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 1920.00 bias-up target through 10:15, not renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 1938.00 would likely exceed 1920.00 at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1890.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1910.00 bias-up signal.

Session-long rally almost tested, so almost rejected.

Gapping up to and through yesterday afternoon''s 1947.00 high would have formed a session-long rally setup. The open touched it, barely, so it was rejected, barely. A benefit of the doubt goes to the consequence of failing to trigger what was tried -- but only so much as it was barely tried.

Meanwhile, two other contexts are operational. The most pressing is this morning''s bias-up environment. Renewed bias-up, actually, for having exceeded the 1920.00 bias-up target through 10:15. But even doubly or triply renewed bias up targets have been met already, so there is no requirement to trend back up. The only requirement is that the 1910.00 bias-up signal define the range''s lower-end if tested.

The other context is the traction gained by yesterday afternoon''s sellers. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon''s high would have neutralized them, and yesterday afternoon''s high contained the gap up, so they should still be rewarded -- if not this morning, then this afternoon.

That is, a normal market environment would be likely to probe under yesterday afternoon''s lows this afternoon. This is not a normal environment, but the resolution remains likely until disproved.

One way to disprove it would be exiting the bias environment back above 1941.00. Another would be not to have yet begun trending down by the noon hour''s exit.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1947.25
1943.50
...would target 1954.50
1951.00
Bias-down: under 1924.50
1921.00
...would target 1914.75
1911.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday''s pullback took advantage of the confirmed breakout, which is targeting a probe above 1.1800. The objective need not be done immediately, although the pullback to 1.1400 seems substantial enough to satisfy near-term selling pressure.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fulfilling the 1169.00 target Monday had reacted down through the close, and then deeper overnight to 1134.00. The pullback could test 1130.50 or 1125.50 before signaling the trend has reversed down. Otherwise, back above 1147.50 would launch a retest of 1169.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Testing 14.65 a little more deeply Tuesday was still overlapping it, and in any case still not rejecting it and recovering. Back above 14.90 should extend higher to extend a further decline.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from Monday morning''s 163-00 high extended deeper Tuesday by gapping down and falling to 157-20. The gap back to Monday''s 161-26 open should still be retested while forming a more durable top, which would be triggered back above 159-10.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday didn''t extend higher, and didn''t even fill the gap back to Friday''s 40.30 close, only spending the session ranging narrowly. Having come within 20 cents Monday of the 37.55 target, a bottom can now form by probing under Monday''s low and closing above Tuesday''s 39.90 high. .

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and ranging sideways Tuesday left no unfinished business below. Firming early Wednesday above Tuesday''s high would be credible for trending higher intraday.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1884.50
1880.75
...would target 1895.50
1891.75
Bias-down: under 1866.25
1862.50
...would target 1854.00
1850.25
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.