Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 08-31-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... A third consecutive narrow overnight range greeted Tuesday's open, which once again resolved in immediate range expansion. Sliding through the morning touched the 2171.50 pullback limit, which was probed by 3 points into the afternoon bias environment's exit. Although possible, collapsing was avoided by bouncing into the close, back up to the noon hour's high. But no higher, which would have rejected the afternoon's probe lower. Overnight action's new info... Fourth time's a charm? Yesterday's late afternoon bounce has not extended a single tick. And another range narrower than 4 points has been fluctuating around unchanged. If, then... Tuesday afternoon's low was similar to Friday afternoon's low also being vulnerable to collapse.. Friday's late bounce at least probed its noon hour high, and then probed higher overnight, enabling Monday morning's rally. Last night's ranging doesn't reflect such eager buyers. Neither does it reflect eager sellers. Not gapping open either way this morning may leave unanswered whether yesterday's reaction down has resumed last week's decline, or if Friday's bounce is going to extend higher first. But immediate range expansion would suggest at least one or the other will be attempted. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2170.00 would be likely to trigger the 2171.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2177.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2182.00 would be likely to trigger the 2180.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Gap down eventually slides. The open gapped down to the 2171.50 bias-down signal. Fluctuating around it through the first 45 minutes invoked the grace period, just as that window was opening. Price was already sliding by 10:15. A negative knee-jerk reaction to EIA dug the knife deeper to help trigger late bias-down. That reaction plunged to touch the 2166.00 bias-down signal. So far, it's holding. Not reacting, but holding. Oversold RSIs at the low would undermine a recovery attempt until retested. Back above 2170.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up, anyway, at least temporarily. But the likelier scenario is that the corrective bounce from Friday's low has given way to a new downleg, targeting fresh lows.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2172.00 2170.75 ...would target  2178.00  2177.00 Bias-down: under  2165.50  2164.50 ...would target  2157.75  2156.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Retesting same level that held Friday's drop. Friday's low formed when its intraday decline filled a three-week old gap back down to 2160.00. Its "unfinished business below" was one of several that offered context to the subsequent rally being unsustainable. Anyway, its late-afternoon test couldn't attract new sponsorship, and price bounced into the weekend. Now Monday's interim rally to 2181.50 has been retraced to retest 2160.00. The test this time is shallower, barely piercing 2160.00. It did trigger the 2164.50 bias-down signal, and its target is to probe 1 point under Friday's 2157.50 bias-down target. Today's price action is entirely in-line with the massive topping rolling over. But even if we knew with a 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} degree of certainty the bounce would resolve down, a bigger detour can't be dismissed. Not too much -- there's still limited time for a drop to get underway or out-of-the way.

Wednesday's noon hour test of 2160.00 support produced an obligatory bounce. Like late-Friday's bounce from testing 2160.00, strong-handed sellers never regained control. Both bounces targeted the same 2170.75-2171.50 area, which both fulfilled. But Wednesday's bounce accomplished nothing toward reversing the trend up. It didn't gain traction or reverse the trend up, and holding a test of resistance only neutralized the attraction above. Meanwhile, the afternoon's 2156.50 outstanding bias-down target became "unfinished business below." Wednesday's bounce did potentially marginalize sellers through the holiday. Not already breaking lower this far before a three-day weekend suggests that a break lower is at least delayed. To be sure, recovering from a probe under Friday's low would have been optimal. And gapping down Thursday could serve by proxy to resume the decline. Otherwise, gravitating back up into the weekend is possible before resuming the decline. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2174.00 2173.00 ...would target  2179.50  2178.50 Bias-down: under  2165.50  2164.50 ...would target 2159.75  2158.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.