Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Flat-to-higher overnight optimism didn't prevent Thursday's session-long decline from influencing lower prices during Friday morning's bias environment. So, a shallow bounce out of the Employment Situation report was reversed to exit the open back under last Wednesday's 3462.50 pivotal lows. The first hour collapsed to 3348.00, which the bias environment consolidated. Sellers were marginalized by allowing the afternoon bias environment exit to recover the noon hour's 3415.00 high. Temporarily extending higher to 3453.00 was retraced entirely back down to 3415.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's opening dip down to 3380.00 was consolidated all night back up to unchanged, then extended up to 3439.00 into Monday's 1:00 PM ET close. Flat-to-higher ranging last night touched 3447.00 after midnight, but trending down through Europe's opens has extended to 3385.00 -- coming within 5 points of Sunday night's opening low. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Sunday night's opening dip had momentarily probed under Friday's noon hour low. Its reaction accomplished nothing relevant, ultimately peaking 6 points under Friday's late-afternoon high. Now the open is indicated back in negative territory, threatening Friday's noon hour low again. Any lower would risk retesting yesterday's low, which already utilized the support of the 2-week old week-long 3353.00-3396.00 congestion. Recovering another probe to close back above it could be rewarded by new highs. But closing under its range would be bearish, and confirm June's complex Ascending Triangle is being retraced. The next significant lower attraction is 3305.00-3308.00. Simply bouncing this morning would remain vulnerable to resuming the decline this afternoon. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3388.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3393.50 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3407.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3411.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3417.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Did critical support just hold? We identified the low of Friday's opening collapse in real-time, because its relevant window was testing the 3351.00 low of the 2-week old week-long congestion. The rally to 3587.00 launched from that congestion was already considered to be an unstable blow-off. Retracing it so abruptly adds to the reversal's momentum.

Unless the reversal is absorbed.

That's this morning's question, as its 3337.25 low tries holding the 2-week old congestion's 3351.00 low, again. Its probes reacted up above the open's range to 3379.50, but lacked the aggressive character that would suggest sellers are done.

Now 3351.00 is being retested, again. Friday morning's bias environment consolidated its opening collapse. Although its measurements are shallower, this morning is unlikely to duplicate Friday morning's consolidation. Duplicating the consolidation would become even likelier to resolve down. I'll still give a recovery some benefit of the doubt if the bias environment is exited above the 2-week old congestion's 3365.00 upper-end. More so above the first hour's 3375.00 high. But any credible rally should be aggressive. If this morning's backing-and-filling hasn't formed a bottom, then that wasn't backing-and-filling, but chipping away at support.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3370.25 signal would target 3388.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3343.00 signal would target 3327.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3371.50 3370.25 ...would target 3389.25 3388.00 Bias-down: under 3344.25 3343.00 ...would target 3329.00 3327.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Side trip? The open's collapse was consolidated through the bias environment. And also through the noon hour. This morning's 3379.50 high is only now being attacked to within 6 points. Meanwhile, this afternoon's 3370.50 bias-up signal has failed to trigger. This is a no-bias environment, so 3370.50 should define the window's upper-end. Anything higher before lapsing would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Now testing a buy signal at 3374.00, which should hold as resistance. Notwithstanding the potential no-bias trending, it's possible that the session so far has been building a base to test 3388.00-3403.00. Otherwise, the no-bias environment has room down to its 3343.00 bias-down signal. Back under 3366.00 would start to signal its test underway. And not yet rallying out of the bias environment would remain vulnerable to resuming the decline into the close.

Resuming last week's decline wasn't immediate. Globex action through the holiday and Monday night had ranged flat-to-higher up to 3447.00. But trending down through Europe's opens probed under Friday's 3348.00 low down to 3337.00 post-open. Resuming the morning's decline wasn't immediate, either. Choppy sideways ranging up to 3379.50 exiting the afternoon bias environment trending down to 3327.50. Shallower choppy ranging through the close ended under the morning's low. Despite resuming the decline so late, sellers gained traction for their efforts. Exiting the bias environment at or under the noon hour low, and then entering the final hour lower, formed bearish PM Traction. The setup makes Wednesday morning's bias window likely to trend down, too. Trending up through the open could invalidate the PM Traction setup. And having trended down into the close, gapping up above the afternoon's 3376.50 high could form a bullish session-long rally. Otherwise, the next lower attractions at 3320.00 and 3305.00-3308.00 remain in-play. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3347.75 signal would target 3362.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3320.00 signal would target 3315.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3349.00 3347.75 ...would target 3363.25 3362.00 Bias-down: under 3321.25 3320.00 ...would target 3306.25 3305.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE