Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Flat-to-higher ranging overnight greeted Wednesday's open at its bias-up signal's resistance, triggering a 7-point collapse to 2976.75 (basis Sep). It was recovered immediately and then reversed into positive territory to fulfill the morning's bias-up target. Chipping away at the 2986.50 resistance (basis Sep) of prior highs began probing higher before the noon hour, extending relentlessly into the afternoon's attack on 2997.75 (basis Sep). The bias environment's pullback was recovered by a steep rally to fresh recovery highs satisfying the afternoon's 3000.25 bias-up target (basis Sep). Probing above the rally's 2997.75 (basis Sep) target began too late for its recovery to confirm the rally's next higher objective was already in-play. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Closing Wednesday while still testing 2997.75 (basis Sep) had made the next leg likely either to correct the rally, or else surge immediately. Ticking higher to 3004.25 (basis Sep) past the futures close only improved proximity to the rally's next higher target at 3014.00-3016.50 (basis Sep), but not its likelihood. The Globex open briefly consolidated down to 3001.50 (basis Sep) where a new China trade tariff headline triggered a surge to 3020.00 (basis Sep). Backing-and-filling since then has retraced the headline reaction down to 3004.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) [The ES front-month rolls forward to DEC at today's open. It is trading at a 1.75 premium to SEP. Price references going forward are basis DEC.] Closing Wednesday while still testing 2999.50 (basis Dec) had made the next leg likely either to correct the rally, or else surge immediately to the rally's next higher target at 3016.75-3018.25 (basis Dec). The target doesn't require being met intraday to be fulfilled -- but it's helpful confirmation, and it's often met intraday anyway. Still, the two Isolation setups from August's lows are now neutralized. And projections will already begin considering that downlegs can become trend reversals. Tuesday's shallow, brief pullback that barely refueled before resuming the rally could be sorely missing the sponsorship that its impatience failed to create. None of which prevents an immediate reversal from being only temporary on the path to probing new highs above 3034.75. An immediate reversal, like the Globex-flip setup now trying to form (described in this morning's Market Tour). First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) BASIS DEC:Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3013.00 would be likely to exceed the 3011.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3007.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3004.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3001.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Headline reaction, retrace, repeat. [REMINDER: All prices quoted basis Dec] Last night's 19-point surge up to 3021.75 was retraced by at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} overnight, as headline reactions often are. A 7-point spike down in reaction down to 3001.00 to the ECB policy statement was retraced by 161.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, which isn't unusual. And now another China trade headline has triggered 16-point surge up to 3022.75, which was retraced by at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} down to 3011.75.

There is no "unfinished business" above -- last night's high was not a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest but it is now probed, and the rally's 3015.75-3018.25 target didn't require intraday retest but it was. Even the 3011.00 opening print has been filled already from below after dipping momentarily back under yesterday's close.

Much of the last dip was recovered, but a sell signal at 3014.75 was just pierced. Its support is so far holding, but its break would target at least 3005.75. Otherwise, back above 3019.25 would start to signal the rally is resuming, next targeting fresh highs at 3035.00. Yesterday's close and last night's high form a range that both pre-open and post-open volatility has failed to break. Regardless of there being templates for paths either up or down, there's no requirement for the balance of the session to exceed its current range. Nor is a trending attempt beyond the open's range protected from reversing back into it, and through it, aggressively.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3019.50 3021.50 ...would target 3024.75 3026.75 Bias-down: under 3009.50 3011.50 ...would target 3001.75 3003.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The range remains. Barely minutes following my post-open update, yet another China trade headline triggered a substantial price reaction. The 3006.50-3022.75 surge was limited to testing overnight highs. An eventual collapse from 3018.25-3003.25 was triggered by a headline contradicting the first. The last post had just mentioned the pre-open and post-open attempts at breaking under the initial overnight low. Their failures had made a break lower unlikely, or likely to be recovered if probed. The third attempt also held, and now prior highs are being tested up to 3023.50. All of which holds the initial Globex surge's range. Eventually, even the most solid range must give way, in one direction or the other. In the interim, at least the first trending attempt is often retraced back into the range, and often that retracement is reversed aggressively in the opposite direction. Today's setup gives more leeway to extending higher with an attraction to new highs at 3035.00. But reversing down first could probe under yesterday afternoon's 2992.50 low.

Wednesday evening's 19-point surge from 3003.00 to attack 3022.00 was retraced before Thursday's open, and then some. But the session's range would be contained between, no matter how choppy, and it was extremely choppy. Although the choppiness was in reaction to ECB and China trade headlines, it can't mute the organic signals derived from an artificial catalyst's reactions. So, regardless of the intraday fluctuations, we note that the rally's next higher target at 3015.25-3018.25 is met intraday. There is no "unfinished business" above. Closing above it could have signaled new highs targeting 3035.00 is in-play, but the final hour's slide was busy testing 3010.50. Trending away intraday from Thursday's range became unlikely when the post-open's own attempt failed. It's still difficult, and trending away intraday Friday would still be vulnerable to retesting Thursday's range. But gapping open beyond either end of Thursday's range could extend. One possibility is for a session-long rally, that would be triggered by opening back above Thursday's  3023.50 highs, having trended down into the close. Tuesday's session-long decline setup was invalidated, but that impatient buying pressure makes it more difficult to extend higher without a corrective dip. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3016.50 3018.50 ...would target 3023.00 3025.00 Bias-down: under 3010.00 3012.00 ...would target 3002.00 3004.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.