Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 09-13-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday night's probe above its 2487.00 intraday high up to 2491.00 was relatively shallow. But it was complex enough to form a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. Combining that attraction above, with an optimistically shallow pre-open pullback and a gap up, triggered an opening surge. Extending straight up from 2489.00 to 2493.50 held up long enough to trigger Tuesday's 2489.00 bias-up signal. The balance of the session didn't actually trend, so much as traverse the open's range once or twice. Its last bounce was a last-minute surge to fresh highs at 2494.75, neutralizing the morning's 2495.50 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. The second consecutive higher close confirmed Monday's breakout from a multi-session range, so that at least an eventual third higher close is now required. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday's last-minute surge extended post-close to touch the morning's 2495.50 bias-up target. Since fulfilling that buying pressure, Globex has trended straight down to touch Tuesday's 2489.00 bias-up signal soon after Europe's opens. Yesterday's range is still holding. But a 3-point bounce's consolidation has yet to resolve up, and is hovering dangerously close to yesterday's close. If, then... Neutralizing sponsorship like yesterday's bias-up target doesn't necessarily cause trending to reverse. Not if reinforcements arrive without further delay. Yesterday's last-minute surge was too late for that, which puts that responsibility this morning's open. Gapping up isn't required, but potential to 2500.00 today probably relies on post-open action trending up to relevant levels. Any shallower or slower buying pressure Wednesday will be vulnerable to a pullback,potentially into a 4-point range centered around 2477.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2495.50 would be likely to trigger the 2494.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2493.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... Alright good morning welcome it's Wednesday it's time for Wednesday's Morning Market to her it is a expiration week so the clothes today we're going to have Wednesday expiration indicator wed x indicator discussion we're coming off of new eyes so there's really only a very narrow range of options here For What can be signaled and it's either going to be a reliable bullish signal or a less reliable bear of signal and we'll discuss all that at the close as far as where we are just needed a couple hurricane weekend diplomatic and show nights of the history of there it's exactly that though it is history they are not requirements anymore but if this morning is open now we're hovering dangerously close to yesterday's Lowe's if this morning's open isn't trending up plug gapping up buyers did not gain traction for yesterday's efforts if this morning's open is trending down but if it's just not trending up then that's not going to help today produce that third higher close and it's going to make today vulnerable to that pull back contextual e at temporary pull back would be our way to have high confidence of that but no way of knowing that it would be how temporary it would be your helper along so if we're opening I mean here we are open down there's some support in here just opening with in yesterday's range isn't going to give us much indication of anything especially in the mid-range which basically this 92 9150 area delineate opening in this range isn't really predictive but this close to the open having created this much congestion for this long this much consolidation and then suddenly breaking out above it or backing off lower from it trying to open a way from it that might give us something to go on just as magnetic attraction during the opening 15 minutes about sylheti something to get some sort of us set up clicking in getting involved there's no requirement to be suspicious of any town or without and somewhat of a inverted to little correction here giving some upward left so that really oughta be obvious that that gaps being filled and I guess we should say the Gap should be filled today if not early tomorrow if it's going to be gold firmer back up to what what and probing actually but 13 3750 it wasn't really decisively broken but broken Monday extended down Tuesday in fact Monday night was even deeper down to under 27 ugly 2727 70 2670 and Bart's by gapping backup buy gapping back up yesterday above a relevant level closing above irrelevant level give that's not exploited immediately then this is not a major bottom pattern or the bottoming that we've been looking at his failed so if and yes it by the way tested 302 irrelevant level and didn't close above it so it's doubly imperative that today close above yesterday's high let's just call it 3:05 or better lot of upside it's being attempted lot of upside of that word of develop but lot of downside of not question to look at the end took a quick look and then we'll turn this recording around that looks very distributive probe after probe trying to get to resume the rally extend the rally has continually failed back above the prior High it's not to say that momentum is reversing down at this point but stuff to give buyers any credibility when every shot higher is getting shut down just one quick look here so there's a line in the sand right now I mean it's effectively these prioritize it's kind of granular it looks like I'm here but.

Moves stuck within yesterday's range. The open greeted the 2489.00 overnight low to within 1 tick. Surging from there to 2492.50 has since extended to within 3 ticks of this morning's 2494.75 bias-up signal. But it wasn't touched. The 2486.50 bias-down signal wasn't touched, either. This is a no-bias environment, with no required offsetting test in-play. "Dry cleaners" morning, time better spent running errands? Perhaps. Except that testing the bias-up signal this morning would be vulnerable to launching a deeper downdraft. But there is no predictive price action as of yet.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2497.00 2494.50 ...would target  2502.50  2500.00 Bias-down: under  2490.50  2488.00 ...would target  2484.25  2481.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Narrow intraday range. Gapping down to attack yesterday's low was the most relevant feature to today's range. The test held, although it wasn't really a test. Anyway, the post-open bounce has been testing yesterday's highs. Not the overnight highs, but yesterday's slightly lower intraday high. It's not a very wide range, and it's not very interesting price action. In fact, it's now two consecutive no-bias signals on an "inside day." Trending before the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing would be suspicious. Trending after the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing would be credible for extending. Dipping under 2492.00 could test or attack 2488.00 and then collapse into the close. Or not collapse -- nothing is required, which is the difficulty of a no-bias inside day.

Two consecutive no-bias signals almost says it all. Wednesday's inside day was uneventful, hovering at Tuesday's highs. Monday's confirmed breakout has yet to be fulfilled by at least one more higher close. Wednesday's last-minute surge doesn't suggest strong-handed buyers are suddenly making their move. Neither factor protects against an interim pullback, as I describe in today's video. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2498.50 2496.00 ...would target  2503.50  2501.00 Bias-down: under  2490.75  2488.25 ...would target 2485.75 2483.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.