Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Holiday-inhibited volume didn't help to defend Sunday night's rally to 1964.75 from being retraced entirely before Monday's open, or from being reversed into Friday afternoon's range after the open. But the open quickly fulfilled and held its 1938.00-1939.00 potential. Then the holiday-inhibited volume prevented attracting sponsorship for more than a temporary bounce or to attacking 1945.00. Overnight action's new info... Overnight action didn't initially seem inhibited, firming to 1949.50. But that was retraced back into negative territory, back under Monday's lows, and deeper into Friday afternoon's range back down to 1935.25. But an accumulation pattern centered around 1938.00-1939.00 has broken higher, surging to 1946.50. If, then... I was looking forward to yet another bite at the 1938.00-1939.00 apple. Its support has held for several sessions, and now again overnight. And the reactions there are more reflective of accumulation than of chipping away at support. Not that this morning's action will resume trending, with participation still a little thinner. And yesterday's buyers didn't gain traction. So, gapping up only to test yesterday's highs without exceeding them could spend the balance of the morning backing-and-filling back into yesterday's range. So long as its lows hold, the week's biggest rally leg can develop. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1938.00 would be likely at least to test this morning's 1935.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1943.50 would be unlikely to test bias-down.

Pre-open rally attracts little sponsorship at resistance. This morning's 1950.50 bias-up signal was touched post-open on the way down to 1943.50. That's nothing. That's just room for noise back down to yesterday afternoon's "lower prior highs." Yesterday's late surge broke intraday downtrending support at 1942.50, which could be retested easily, too. But having held a test of the bias-up signal to trigger no-bias, an offsetting test of the 1935.50 bias-down signal is now in-play. Heads-up: I wouldn't be surprised if somehow that were no more productive than to retest 1939.00. Even then, if the pre-10:15 1943.50 low isn't probed by 11:30, then the offsetting test will become moot. Back above 1949.50 would begin indicating that rather than back-and-fill, the balance of the morning might instead range widely around 1950.50. That could include testing the 1952.00 pre-open high, and probing it.

Initial reaction down from resistance gets squeezed. The open's reaction down from the 1950.50 bias-up signal had dipped to "lower prior highs" at 1943.50. That ranged sideways back to 1948.00 through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. Having held a test of the bias-up signal, that put into play an offsetting test of the 1935.50 bias-down signal. A sudden surge flipped that on its head. Rather than drop 13 points to the bias-down signal, the surge extended into a 13-point rally that tested 1961.00. There was never a fresh post-10:15 low, so the offsetting test of the bias-down signal is moot. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above the 1955.50 bias-up target would invalidate it anyway. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest eventually. That can wait if 1955.50 is reversed through 11:30. The no-bias rally's steep slope and origin is suspicious for being sponsored by weak hands. But holding above 1955.50 would let the overbought RSI be more attractive than anything below.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1972.50  1962.00 ...would target  1979.50  1969.25 Bias-down: under  1963.00  1952.75 ...would target  1957.50  1947.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Monday didn't really exploit its opportunity to back-and-fill after Thursday's confirmed breakout. Tuesday exploited the opportunity just a little more. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Reacting down from attacking 1111.00 resistance Tuesday now creates a credible base for launching a durable rally leg, but the setup won't tolerate much delay before resuming the decline instead. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday's narrow ranging around 14.35 was unnecessary since its attraction below was neutralized already, but not necessarily bearish so long as rallying becomes obvious Wednesday without much further delay. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Unfinished business below at 153-12 was satisfied by Tuesday's drop, which first reacted up from fulfilling the objective and then broke another point under it to 152-19. Holding 152-30 as resistance would allow the break to extend down to 151-30. Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Still avoiding a rally leg Tuesday is more relevant to the pattern than not yet extending down sharply, which the pattern is vulnerable to doing at any time. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Probing a few cents higher overnight was retraced before Tuesday's open, when a second consecutive higher close above 2.77 would confirm Monday's breakout.

Tuesday's buyers gained traction for their efforts -- the bias environment was exited at 2:30 above the noon hour's range, and the final hour was entered above the bias environment's range. That tends to be rewarded by trending higher through the following morning.

That said, that's not how a similar template was rewarded last Tuesday. Its afternoon bias environment was exited above its bias-up target despite being a no-bias environment. which is what happened this Tuesday morning. Last week's situation might have been exacerbated by trending up already overnight. Similar action in this setup would target 1977.00 and 1985.00.

Backing-and-filling overnight down to 1964.00 would still be likely to resolve up Wednesday. And if not recovering into a morning rally, then an afternoon rally would be likely, still targeting 1977.00 and 1985.00. Looming ahead is the WedEX indicator and Thursday's impending FOMC statement. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Tour recorded here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmmsmmj After 6:30pm ET, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1982.50 1972.00 ...would target 1987.25  1977.00 Bias-down: under  1976.75  1966.50 ...would target 1970.25  1959.75 Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.