Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's second consecutive close under 3341.00-3355.00 was rejected for the morning by gapping up above it Monday. Extending sharply higher through the first hour got to 3392.50. Trending back down came within 1 point of retracing the 3363.50 open. The last half-hour's bounce up to 3387.00 ended back down at 3372.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sideways ranging around unchanged through midnight had initially attacked yesterday afternoon's low down to the 3366.00 bias-down signal. Rallying through midnight attacked yesterday's highs up to the 3390.00 bias-up signal. A temporary pullback into Europe's opens down to 3378.00 has recovered to attack 3398.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday I highlighted the downtrending Channel forming since last Wednesday-Thursday's 3414.00 highs connected with the prior Friday's 3443.00 high. The Channel has produced two lower lows and two lower highs, now probing above its second lower high that had formed yesterday morning. Holding up through the open would all but require testing 3414.00, whether without delay, or following a consolidation/pullback. The latter path is more bullish longer-term, but only closing above 3414.00 can end the downtrend. Regardless of the opening print, the ongoing decline can still resume but must resume from the opening print -- preventing any further intraday rally beyond yesterday morning. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3393.50 would be likely also to exceed the 3390.00 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3384.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 3381.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3377.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Post-open follow-through is lacking. The overnight rally eventually tested 3406.00, and attacked 3399.00 at the open. The opening 15 minutes trended up to fresh highs at 3409.00, forming a position of strength. Choppy flat-to-lower ranging since then has yet to probe a fresh high. Fresh post-open lows are reacting up 10 points, then failing. The latest fresh post open low is now bouncing from 3394.50. Sellers needed to limit any intraday rally to the open, so not yet probing above the open's position of strength keeps the door open to a deeper reaction down. The gap-to-gap comes in around 3386.50. Meanwhile, the open's position keeps a wider door open to resuming the rally up to 3414.00 and probably also 3424.00. Exiting the bias environment under the 3400.00 open would start to suggest a delayed reversal is underway.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3410.25 signal would target 3420.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3395.50 signal would target 3386.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3421.75 3410.25 ...would target 3430.50 3420.00 Bias-down: under 3406.00 3395.75 ...would target 3396.25 3386.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Still no resolution to the open's strength. Trending up to 3409.00 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility formed a position of strength. The morning's reaction down to 3394.50 was retraced, but only to attack 3408.00 during the noon hour, and only to test 3408.00 coming out of the noon hour. Stopping pessicmistically short of the open's high can be bearish, but that would tend to behave bearishly without much delay. Instead, ranging under 3409.00 has persisted through multiple timing windows. That's ineffectual pessimism, and it suggests that eventually probing higher will initially be aggressive. So, where's the eventual probe higher? Currently, a slide to fresh post-open lows at 3393.00 has taken RSIs simultaneously oversold. Bouncing back above 3399.00-3401.50 could trend relentlessly to fresh session highs. Meanwhile, nothing prevents extending the pullback to the 3386.00 area.

Greeting Tuesday's 3400.00 open from above Monday's 3393.00 high then trended up to 3409.00 throughout the opening 15 minutes. Creating a position of strength at least ensures reversals down will recover. The open's position of strength also tends to be rewarded with fresh session highs, but the morning's dip to 3394.50 only recovered to within 1 point of the high. Ranging sideways through the noon hour resolved down to 3378.50 into the last half-hour, bouncing through the close up to 3397.00. Tuesday's cash session closed had bounced only up to Monday's 3393.00 high, which undermines the earlier probe above it. Regardless of being undermined, the earlier probe above Monday's high wasn't rejected. So, retesting Tuesday morning's 3409.00 high isn't assured of extending higher without at least gapping up Wednesday above it. And testing it overnight could still be reversed back down into Wednesday's open. Dismissing Tuesday's opening 15 minutes, only Monday morning has trended up intraday. A lot of buying pressure has been expended without gaining traction for its effort. Any initial attempt to reverse down continues to be credible for extending. And an initial attempt at reversing down would likely extend aggressively. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3402.00 signal would target 3416.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3384.25 signal would target 3377.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3412.50 3402.00 ...would target 3426.50 3416.00 Bias-down: under 3394.50 3384.25 ...would target 3384.25 3374.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE