Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday night's bounce had attacked 2929.00 before dipping into Wednesday's open. After holding a dip to almost 2920.00, another bounce got to 2930.00 ahead of the FOMC policy statements. Its reaction extended up to 2936.00. And that was the end of that. Dipping into the bias environment exit plunged through the Fed Chair's Q&A through the final hour down to 2907.50. "Lower prior highs" at 2914.00 was tested, and maintained its break, as did 2919.00. Overnight action's new info... Literally, overnight action has ranged sideways. Gradually firming into the Globex session eventually attacked 2916.00 just before midnight. That was retraced gradually back down to touch yesterday's 2907.50 low through Europe's opens, as they essentially played "catch-up" to discount yesterday's late U.S. plunge while they were closed. In the briefer time since then, 2916.00 has been retested, and is still being tested now. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Exiting Thursday's open above 2914.00-2919.00 would be optimal for a morning bounce, albeit probably not durable. Launching a durable rally would be premature. The pattern's next lower attraction is 2900.25. Closing under 2919.00 has significantly threatened to become a more substantial drop, which would be validated more so by maintaining the decline's steepness, and less so by simply closing lower. A recovery would likely begin gradually, and not necessarily be obvious or gain confidence soon. In either case, a probe under yesterday's low is likely -- the sideways overnight range may seem stable, but at this stage it is no more a reflection of strength than was yesterday's last-minute narrow ranging at the low. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2917.00 would be likely to trigger the 2915.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2914.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Late break higher extends. For now. The 2916.00 overnight high had been retested already, following an interim dip back to yesterday's 2907.50 last-minute low. The recovery's consolidation started firming into the open up to 2918.00. Its reaction down to 2914.00 resolved up. And up, and up.

This morning's 2922.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The 2927.00 renewed bias-up target was just touched, and is being probed by several ticks.

Absent a fresh low under 2907.50, this morning's bounce is likely only a temporary correction. Either the bias-up target or renewed bias-up target are candidates for the bounce's peak. Meanwhile, maintaining the gap up above 2914.00 and extending above 2919.00 -- which had been attracting yesterday's drop -- does help to create a position of strength. It's not yet certain whether the position of strength's use will be to help absorb a retest of yesterday's low, or else to launche a durable recovery above yesterday's high.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2924.00 2928.75 ...would target 2928.50 2933.25 Bias-down: under 2917.00 2922.00 ...would target 2911.50 2916.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Limits of a corrective bounce are met. The 2907.50 low of yesterday's drop is likely to be probed at some point before a durable recovery develops. So, interim bouncing is likely to be only a temporary correction. A bigger and bigger bounce would start to suggest otherwise, but not arbitrarily -- not without recovering some relevant level through a relevant window.

It helps to begin from a relevant level, too, like from recovering 2914.00 and 2919.00 through this morning's open. Even that only produces a position of strength, which makes another drop likely to recover... for example, from retesting 2907.50.

Anyway, today's bounce has extended through its 2927.00 renewed bias-up to attack this afternoon's 2933.25 bias-up target. The probe above 2927.00 was isolated to the noon hour. And "late no-bias" just triggered for this afternoon's bias environment. Nothing requires extending this morning's rally. Not extending higher would be vulnerable at least to backing-and-filling Extending higher anyway could retest Friday's 2945.25-2947.00 highs, and still be vulnerable to reversing down.

Wednesday afternoon's plunge to 2907.50 cannot form a durable bottom without being retested. We knew this at Thursday's open, despite it gapping to and through what had been "lower prior highs" at 2914.00, and extending above 2919.00. This downside requirement continued despite extending higher through the bias environment, into and out of the noon hour. up to 2932.00. And the downside requirement under 2907.50 remains likely, despite already dropping 15 points from Thursday's high to attack 2917.00. That's a lot of selling pressure to expend in a short time frame, and to still have downside. But Thursday afternoon's sellers gained traction -- exiting the bias environment under the noon hour's low and entering the final hour even lower. Friday morning is likely to trend lower, if not isolated to the overnight. Meanwhile, Thursday's close did recover 2914.00 and (barely) 2919.00. Probing lower on Friday would originate from a position of strength. Whether done overnight or during the morning, a recovery is likely. Probing lower without recovering would instead point sharply lower. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2919.50 2924.50 ...would target 2925.75 2930.75 Bias-down: under 2911.25 2916.25 ...would target 2904.50 2909.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.