Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 10-01-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's 21-point gap up to 1896.00 extended up to 1907.00 at the morning's high, testing the 1904.75 target. It was retraced down to 1886.50 at the noon hour's low, to within 2 ticks of the bias-down target. The balance of the afternoon climbed back to fresh highs fulfilling its 1909.75 room for noise above the morning's target. Closing there instead of higher or lower prevented putting into play the next higher objective. or signaling that this one had held. Overnight action's new info... The reaction to 1909.75 was a 9-point reaction down into and out of the Globex open. Firming back to the morning's 1907.00 high then accelerated its pace up to 1927.50.  Higher highs into and out of Europe's opens touched 1929.50. But that has reacted down to 1918.00. If, then... Gapping down seems unlikely. The other bearish scenario following yesterday's rally included probing fresh highs before revering down before noon. The next higher objective at 1915.00 wasn't one bit influential overnight as resistance, so it should be tested as support. Its room for noise up to 1921.25 has been probed overnight only, and not yet post-open. That could make the difference between whether a dip to 1915.00 holds, or breaks lower -- not yet probing above 1921.25 before testing 1915.00 would be more vulnerable to extending down. Otherwise, recovering 1921.25 through a relevant timing window would extend the corrective rally, while making its eventual failure much likelier to extend much lower. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1918.50 would be likely to exceed the 1915.00 bias-up target at 10:15 and to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1913.25 would be unlikely to renew bias-up.

Volatility may have been front-loaded. The overnight rally to 1929.50 had retraced pre-open to this morning's 1909.75 bias-up signal's support. The open's bounce fulfilled the 1915.00 bias-up target to 1917.25. That threat to renew the bias-up signal, was soon reversed into a test of the 1899.75 bias-down signal. But a big bounce suddenly turned that bias-down threat into a test of the 1909.75 bias-up signal. Long story longer, the grace period triggered, bias-up triggered late, and yet the 1899.75 bias-down signal is STILL being tested as support. Now the morning's bias environment is lapsing. Good riddance. The levels and consequences were very influential before 10:15/10:30, but much less so afterward. Recovering back above yesterday morning's 1907.00 high would be bullish, but it isn't even being threatened. Exiting the bias environment under 1899.75 would have been bullish. Now entering the noon hour under 1997.00 would compensate for the delay. Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report could paralyze price action. But sellers (or buyers) obviously exerting control into the noon hour, let alone out of it, could trigger one more trending attempt instead of ranging narrowly through the balance of the session.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1918.25 1908.25 ...would target  1923.75  1913.75 Bias-down: under  1907.00  1897.00 ...would target  1901.25  1891.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Wednesday's break lower didn't extend Thursday, but its bounce was relatively shallow and didn't reject the attraction still outstanding to fresh lows. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Narrow sideways ranging Thursday didn't reject Wednesday's close under the 1117.00 target which was still almost being overlapped at the close. Thursday's narrow range also didn't overlap it, or extend down,  making any initial rally effort credible for extending higher intraday.. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Choppy sideways action Thursday ought to hold above 14.50 resistance and avoid putting into play fresh lows. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Probing fresh highs was still retraced to range narrowly around 158-00, and now back under 157-14 and 156-16 would signal a deeper drop underway. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Gapping up Thursday to test 46.00 resistance wasn't any likelier to extend from a standing stop within the prior range, which was retraced into the afternoon. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday's fresh low close didn't greet Thursday's EIA report from a position of strength. Gapping down didn't help. An immediate rally at this stage wouldn't be credible, but Tuesday's confirmed breakout has no unfinished business below.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1925.75 1915.75 ...would target  1931.25  1921.25 Bias-down: under  1914.00  1904.00 ...would target  1907.00  1897.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Thursday afternoon's recovery ended at the morning's 1915.00 bias-up target. The rally greeting Thursday's open -- as with the rally that greeted Wednesday's open -- was corrected intraday and then recovered into the close.  The patterns differ in several key ways, like developing exclusively in positive territory or not. But they can't be confused with greeting Friday's payrolls report pessimistically. The question is whether the Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength, or overly-optimistic. How about, a happy medium, almost equilibrium. The market wants to react favorably to the news, but will have difficulty maintaining that bullishness much past Friday's open. Upside potential includes retesting Wednesday night's 1929.50 high, 1942.00 and 1960.00. None of which is an actual attraction. Downside attractions begin at Thursday afternoon's 1897.00 bias-down signal. Probing above it during a bias-down environment requires its eventual retest. A small reach, but opening it could reveal a bigger hole below. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyftfc

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc