Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday night's rally recovered all of the intraday collapse down to 3329.00. Wednesday's high was probed by 4 points up to 3388.00, which was attacked post-open, but failed to trigger a session-long rally. The missed setup became as bearish as it would have been bullish, reacting down again to 3356.00. Bouncing through the noon hour up to 3377.00 could have ranged out the session if not for a stimulus headline. The knee-jerk reaction triggered another collapse to 3350.00, which ranged sideways back up to 3375.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) News that Trump would go into quarantine for being in contact with a Covid-positive staffer helped maintain a flat-to-lower range through midnight. Thursday afternoon's oversold RSIs were attacked to within 6 ticks at 3351.50. News that Trump, himself, tested positive triggered a 65-point collapse to attack 3300.00. A 39-point bounce was retraced almost entirely down to 3304.00, which is now trying to hold as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Overnight volatility ahead of the morning Payrolls report is an unusual pattern, so I expect unusual intraday volatility as traders process the environment. The reaction to the Employment Situation report will be interesting, and opportunistic. The overnight collapse might already have fulfilled the bearish vulnerability of yesterday's ineffectual optimism. The burden of proof is shifted back onto sellers to maintain their influence, or else this morning may rally without the responsibility of probing above yesterday's highs. That burden of proof on sellers can be defined currently as the 3305.00-3316.00 gap-to-gap between last Friday's close and Monday's open. Now it has been tested for the first time overnight, after already having tested its upper-end intraday on Tuesday. Retesting it intraday from above should behave like an air pocket. Already opening under the gap-to-gap range's lower-end should extend down to 3270.00, perhaps much lower. Friday Factors can exacerbate trending in either direction, while also accelerating their reactions or reversals. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Preliminary levels aren't considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Surging back up to resistance. My pre-open comments noted the indicated open being within the gap-to-gap from last Friday's close. In fact, the first minute touched the upper-end of the 3309.00-3311.50 gap-to-gap's 61.8 of the 61.8. In other words, almost 60 points under yesterday's 3370.50 cash session close, yet also at the midpoint of a consolidation range. Post-open trending in either direction was likely to begin without delay. A 3317.75 or 3303.00 buy or sell signal could be immediately actionable.

The open did surge. The likely target was the newer 3350.00 61.8 gap-to-gap back up to yesterday's close, and it was tested up to 3353.50. That's a proxy for resistance of filling the gap back to yesterday's close.

Bias-down still triggered, and now the newer 3337.25 38.2 gap-to-gap is being tested as support down to 3336.00. Extending lower would likely target 3325.25.

Otherwise, holding this 38.2 test would likely mean today's lows are in, and probably also the intraday trend will gravitate higher through the afternoon. The open's Opening thrust held a test of the range's lower-end, and the opening 15-minute range was exceeded at both 10:00 and 10:30. The only thing keeping the door open to another downleg is that the open's rally has held yesterday's higher prior lows. So far. Entering the noon hour above 3350.00 would be bullish.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3340.00 signal would target 3353.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3325.25 signal would target 3311.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3351.75 3340.00 ...would target 3364.75 3353.00 Bias-down: under 3335.00 3324.50 ...would target 3321.50 3311.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Holding up, but holding out. Surging straight up from the 3316.75 open soon fulfilled its likely 3350.00 target. Sideways ranging there confirms the relevance of its resistance, being a proxy for filling the gap back to yesterday's actual 3370.50 close. Retesting the test's 3353.50 high was reversed down sharply into the noon hour. The reversal's catalyst was obscure bearish stimulus headlines, dragging the market down to 3319.50. Much more definitive bullish stimulus headlines triggered a surge to fresh session highs attacking 3360.00.

All of which has one thing in common: still overlapping yesterday's 3350.00 low.

Friday Factors had made this moring's bias-down signal likely to persist through the noon hour. That influence has lapsed, but still undermining a recovery is its inability to decisively recover back above yesterday's 3350.00 low. The Opening Thrust isolated its test of this week's prior lows, and the noon hour isolated another dip. But those bullish setups are more recently offset by the noon hour also isolating a probe above 3350.00. This afternoon's bias-up did trigger, albeit holding a test of its bias-up target. This is still a bias-up environment, and fresh highs would be likely to quickly fill the gap back up to yesterday's actual 3370.50 close. Meanwhile, still hovering at or around 3350.00 keeps the door open to trending back down sharply into the weekend.

Collapsing 70 points overnight to attack 3300.00, and gapping down 55-60 points Friday to touch 3311.50, still opened at the midpoint of Monday's gap-to-gap retracement. Resolving in either direction was likely to be immediate, and the open's surge soon extended up to test the current gap-to-gap retracement up to 3353.50. Despite the Opening thrust isolating its probe under the week's prior lows, Thursday's higher prior lows held as resistance. An interim knee-jerk reaction down to 3319.50 was recovered temporarily up to 3359.50, then ranged flat-to-lower down to 3335.00 into the weekend. Even if strong-handed sellers had intended to produce an organic decline Friday, the overnight headline reaction sucked the oxygen from their sponsorship. Now having retraced the overnight reaction's origin, trending back down can be credible for actually retracing the prior week's lows, and probably also resuming the retracement to June's complex Ascending Triangle. Trending down into Friday's close means that gapping up Monday above the afternoon's 3357.00 high could form a session-long rally setup. It's less reliable over the weekend, but also trending up through the open would be credible for at least a morning rally. The gap back up to Thursday's 3370.50 close would be a minimum likely objective. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3350.50 signal would target 3362.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3333.00 signal would target 3320.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3361.00 3350.50 ...would target 3372.50 3362.00 Bias-down: under 3343.50 3333.00 ...would target 3331.25 3320.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE