Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 10-06-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's gap up was its most promising moment, but not the only one. The bias-up target was then exceeded to renew the bias-up signal, but its next higher objective wasn't met. A couple of blips-up probed fresh highs, but they stopped as quickly as they had started. Other than no trending back down, that wasn't much reward for inverting the downside traction gained by Tuesday's decline. It didn't prevent the last hour's reaction down from 2158.00 to 2152.00, and it didn't leave any "unfinished business above." Overnight action's new info... Extending Wednesday's late reaction down another point to test 2151.00 was recovered into Europe's opens to attack 2156.00. But that soon peaked coming out of Europe's opens, and it eventually reacted down with an even bigger drop testing this morning's 2147.75 bias-down signal. If, then... The aggression of Wednesday's late drop was relative to the session's otherwise narrow range.  Despite being steep and deep, the drop didn't damage the intraday pattern of coiling and pent-up buying pressure. If anything, it fulfilled the template that had been warning a rubber band effect could be needed to stretch price down so that snapping back up could re-launch the rally. But stretching that rubber band so late made it difficult to attract new sponsorship. Still not snapping back up this morning would be likely to gap down, such as last night's price action is now indicating. Which is still not bearish, and could be an even bigger rubber band stretch -- unless gapping down were to maintain a break under Wednesday's 2149.75 low. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2146.25 would be likely to trigger the 2147.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2150.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Open's break not rejected, yet. Not rallying quickly post-open and rejecting the overnight slide was likely to extend down. The open's blip-up touched 2151.75 and reacted down to fresh lows at 2145.75. And then lower to 2144.50. That fresh low created a new feature for buyers to reject. And as it would have been rejecting the overnight slide, rejecting the fresh low would be bullish. So, how's that going? The bias signal's grace period was avoided by 1 tick at 10:15. Then it avoided being invalidated by not decisively recovering the 2147.75 bias-down signal at 10:30. So, this is a bias-down environment by 1 tick at 10:15, and still overlapping 2147.75 at 10:30. Not very convincing. But official. There has yet to be a fresh low since 10:15. Exiting the bias environment above the open's 2151.75 high could invalidate the bias-down. Otherwise, having then failed to reject fresh lows for an entire extra timing window, buyers could become marginalized for the day.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2164.00 2157.50 ...would target  2169.50  2163.00 Bias-down: under  2154.75  2148.25 ...would target  2147.75  2141.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Late-morning surge isn't backing-off. Or extending. Not immediately rejecting the overnight slide to 2147.50 had made fresh lows likely post-open. A blip-up to 2151.75 quickly resolved down. Fresh post-open lows down to 2144.50 had created a new opportunity for rejecting sellers. There wasn't even a blip-up before eventually extending lower to 2143.50. Quickly rejecting that last low would still be credible for extending up. In fact, the bias environment ended by surging back up to and through the open's highs. The noon hour quickly printed 2156.75. And then quickly stopped extending. An extremely narrow 3-point noon hour range has been choppy, but not trending. Still not trending, after an entire timing window has elapsed since a direction-changing surge. A recovery must be obvious this afternoon to avoid another downdraft. Otherwise, the surge was only a correction that refuels the decline.

Perhaps anxiousness ahead of Friday's pre-open Employment Situation report is responsible for paralyzing Thursday afternoon's price action. The 10-point surge into the noon hour came to a sudden stop as the afternoon fluctuated choppily within a narrow 3-point range. Similarly, that same anxiousness would be as responsible for exacerbating the late-morning reaction to headlines (walking back ECB taper talk) that triggered the 10-point surge from a fresh low. So, price action wasn't predictive. Some things were accomplished nonetheless. The attraction below at the gap down to Tuesday's 2143.50 close was neutralized. It's less likely to attract price down, but also less likely to offer support if retested. Also somewhat of an accomplishment was yet more restrained optimism at resistance around 2156.50. At last an obligatory probe above it becomes increasingly likely. But there's not much  more that is new. And there isn't likely to be, not ahead of Friday's report. We don't even do preliminary levels in the blog. But we'll likely have much to plan at the pre-market Tour. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2167.25 2160.75 ...would target  2172.00  2165.75 Bias-down: under  2157.50  2151.25 ...would target 2152.25  2145.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.