Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 11-02-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday night's rally had fulfilled the rally's 2088.00 objective, probing it by nearly 7 points. Its reaction down had greeted Friday's open at Thursday morning's 2084.50 high. Extending down to 2077.50 was recovered through the noon hour to test 2088.00 for the first time intraday. The balance of the afternoon fell to fresh lows testing and retesting 2076.00. A very last-minute plunge slid to 2069.50. Overnight action's new info... Friday's last-minute plunge wasn't rejected. Not immediately. Rather, Sunday night's open extended the slide down to 2066.00. Lower lows eventually touched 2064.25, but a rally at Europe's opens recovered back up to 2076.00. But no higher as of yet, hovering there for a couple of hours. If, then... The overnight low bottomed upon testing this morning's 2064.50 bias-down target. Despite neutralizing its attraction, the rally's 2088.00 objective need not be retested intraday. Extending back down immediately is more possible if no gap is left outstanding. So, retracing all of Friday's late plunge may only prevent a gap from inhibiting an intraday decline. The open must recover more than 2076.00 before beginning to suspect momentum is reversing back up. Momentum reversing back up would likely target a retest of Thursday night's 2094.75 high. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2080.50 would be likely to trigger the 2079.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2075.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2071.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2069.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Overnight recovery extends through the open. The open held a test of 2076.00 as support and extended higher to test the 2084.50 bias-up target. Despite probing it up to 2085.50, the bias-up target held through 10:15. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met. Usually, that tends to be the morning's high. It's still a bias-up, so attempt to reverse down should fail or be limited. And being a bias-up, extending higher is possible. So long as the bias environment doesn't begin lapsing at 11:30 under a relevant level like 2076.00 -- preferably not under the 2079.50 bias-up signal -- the recovery can retest last week's highs.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2095.25 2088.50 ...would target  2101.25  2094.50 Bias-down: under  2087.25  2080.50 ...would target 2081.50  2074.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-up target exceeded. Exceeding this morning's 2084.50 bias-up target through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-up signal. It wasn't exceeded. It was still a bias-up environment and vulnerable to extending higher. But not likely. In fact, higher and higher highs each reacted down, first to overlap 2084.50, and then to test it as support. Finally, it was attacked to within 2 ticks before entering the noon hour. The bias environment has lapsed, and the noon hour is probing fresh highs up to 2090.00. Overbought RSIs are protecting against a durable reaction down. Anyway, o\ne more domino has yet to topple as described during the pre-open Tour -- retesting Thursday night's 2094.75 high.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) After Friday had maximized the corrective bounce potential, initially firming Monday did not extend and only ranged narrowly under Friday's high. Retesting last week's low is likely so long as 1.1100 isn't recovered. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Despite having held the 1138.50 pullback limit Friday, gapping down slightly to fresh lows extended intraday to 1132.50. A bounce can now test 1141.50 without reversing the trend up. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday's breakout wasn't confirmed Friday, but Monday's open still gapped down and extended to 15.25, much further below the 15.85 buy signal. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping down slightly Monday soon probed a couple of ticks under Thursday's 155-21 prior low down to try resuming the decline. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Several days of testing the 46.00 bounce limit may have begun resolving down with Monday's weaker open. Momentum didn't actually reverse down, but the recovery attempt cannot afford any further delay if it is valid. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Closing above 2.31 Friday allowed a second consecutive higher close Monday above 2.37 to signal a new rally leg already underway. But the open gapped down and the session was spent consolidating within the recent range. Recovering 2.37 would still be bullish, but also needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm.

Monday's final hour entry at 2098.50 was a relevant high. It was the product of errant ticks, its RSIs were overbought, and it immediately reacted down, and its pullback limit was almost violated. Then it was exceeded. RSIs were overbought at the 2100.00 higher high, too.Its pullback limit was violated on the second probe under it. The cash session close dipped to 2096.00, and post-close action slipped further to 2094.00. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest, although RSIs were making lower highs. Buyers gaining traction suggests the high will be probed, as a reward for exiting the bias environment and entering the final hour at successively higher highs. Closing above 2088.00 puts into play new highs above 2134.00, so long as Tuesday doesn't close back under 2088.00. None of which requires extending higher without delay. But a dip must be deep -- whether begun immediately or after initially rallying -- if new highs are going to be avoided. As usual for this rally leg, a real durable reversal down would likely begin abruptly and aggressively. Any less initial bearishness would be likelier to resolve higher. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptssht

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2105.25 2098.50 ...would target  2110.00  2103.50 Bias-down: under  2096.00  2089.50 ...would target 2090.25  2083.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.