Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) A China trade headline had triggered an overnight surge to within 1 tick of 3093.50 before Europe's opens, ranging sideways into Thursday's 3088.00 opening print. This was the next higher objective, along with 3093.50 which a post-open surge tested up to 3094.50. Choppy sideways ranging twice probed higher highs up to 3097.00, supported back down to 3089.50. A pullback into the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap 3080.50 area was becoming likelier and likelier -- even before another China trade headline triggered a 9-point spike down to 3081.50, and its retest down to 3079.00. The headline's release on the cusp between timing windows effectively killed action as the balance of the session bounced back up to 3084.50-3086.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's late ranging has persisted overnight, albeit wider. Initially extending Thursday's late bounce up to 3090.50 had soon reversed back into negative territory. After extending down to fresh lows at 3077.00 by midnight, a bounce has recovered back through yesterday's close up to this morning's 3088.00 bias-up signal. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday afternoon's sellers gained traction, making Friday morning likely to trend down. A morning rally all but requires gapping up above yesterday's late 3092.25 high, or at least greeting Friday's open in rally mode and soon recovering 3092.25. Gapping up isn't yet indicated, but still has time. At least containing the probe under yesterday's low matches the other bullish path, which is to rally out of a morning decline. But if another dip were repeated post-open, then its recovery probably needs to be evident no later than the noon hour exit. Resuming Thursday's rally could extend to 3135.00, while extending Thursday afternoon's pullback could target 3066.00 or 3044.50. This being a Friday, the morning's bias signal is likely to persist through the noon hour. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3084.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3088.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3080.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3077.75 bias-down signal.

Another China trade headline in the mix. The overnight bounce up to 3088.00 held, and its reaction greeted the open at 3080.00. That's certainly not gapping up above a prior high, which would have been bullish. Rallying through the open would have been bullish, which the open tried by bouncing up to 3085.00. Taking too long to improve had already suggested the bounce would fail. Which a China trade headline ensured, triggering a plunge to 3072.50. But only briefly. Price action since then has crawled back to the plunge's 3083.00 origin. Meanwhile, the 3077.75 bias-down signal was recovered, cleanly triggering no-bias. An offsetting test of the 3088.00 bias-up signal is in-play, regardless of it already having been tested overnight and being influential. And I'll give the 3088.00 attraction a benefit of the doubt, since no-bias triggered and Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. But I'll also give sellers a benefit of the doubt if the bias environment were exited back under its 3077.75 bias-down signal.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3089.00 3088.00 ...would target 3094.50 3093.50 Bias-down: under 3081.25 3080.50 ...would target 3075.00 3074.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Losing sponsorship into the weekend. Holding this morning's 3077.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 3088.00 bias-up signal. It became "unfinished business" that requires eventually being tested. The recovery has gotten close, up to 3086.50. But the gap back to yesterday's close is offering resistance, and there's no timing requirement to probe it today. This being a Friday, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high (3086.50) would be vulnerable to gravitating higher through the close. Timing window ranges since the open are too narrow today to be very predictive, but any renewed buying pressure would be credible for extending. Extending down probably requires a headline catalyst.

Until its last half-hour, Friday's session developed entirely in negative territory. Two overnight probes into positive territory above 3084.50-3086.00 had gotten to 3091.50 and later to 3088.00. The 3080.00 open had started probing positive territory again when it was ambushed by a China trade headline that triggered a plunge to 3072.50. But the headline reaction was soon retraced entirely, and the balance of the session continually peaked at 3084.50-3086.00. Until its last half-hour, when a break already underway extended relentlessly through the close up to 3092.50. Friday afternoon's are often vulnerable to gravitating higher when the bias environment lapses above the noon hour's high. That setup never presented, but sellers didn't exploit their opening, so buyers took their second chance. There was no "unfinished business" above coming into Friday's session. The morning's test of the bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 3088.00 bias-up signal, which the final hour's rally fulfilled. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3097.00 3096.25 ...would target 3104.00 3103.25 Bias-down: under 3086.00 3085.25 ...would target 3079.00 3078.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.