Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 11-10-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Monday morning's plunge through noon from 2088.00 to 2062.00 was the consequence of Fridya not having rejected the intraday probes under it. That consequence extended 8 points deeper than was necessary. The balance of the session reversed direction. Firming through the bias environment back up to 2072.00 didn't gain traction, but that didn't prevent a late surge to 2077.50. Overnight action's new info... Pulling back into and out of Monday's close found immediate support at the 2070.00 area. Attacking 2079.00 into midnight ranged narrowly, but had started slipping already before Europe's opens. That slipping became more aggressive on the way to fresh lows at 2066.25... Not so fast, there -- a one-hour surge is retesting 2072.00. If, then... Without gaining traction Monday afternoon, the late extension higher set the stage for one of two resolutions. Either extend higher overnight, too, attracting new sponsorship that justifies the late optimism. Or, resume the decline Tuesday morning -- and with a vengeance, the consequence of Monday afternoon's nouveau optimism having only refueled Monday morning's pessimism. But that sword can cut both ways, and opening down too deeply can quickly discover that few new sellers are being attracted, allowing a bottom to form. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2066.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2072.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Tug of war is currently favoring sellers. It has been awhile since we've seen such wide ranging, without any net move, so far past the open. More on that later... Opening at the 2068.00 bias-down signal initially surged to 2073.50. Its complete retracement was recovered quickly to 2075.00. The next complete retracement has dipped even deeper to 2064.50. That overlapped the bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. It wasn't recovered through 10:30, triggering "late bias-down."

The 2062.75 bias-down target is in-play. As we discussed during the pre-market Tour, that would likely probe under yesterday's 2062.00 low. Meanwhile, back above 2070.00 would start to suggest the late bias-down is dead.

As for the open's wide ranging, that helped to dilute the requirement for a rally to be immediate. Gapping up was the original requirement. The sizable legs then diluted the requirement for a quick recovery.  Now all of those conditions have resolved in fresh lows. Buyers seem pretty eager, so finishing with the downside this morning should resolve in a very aggressive rally.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2079.50 2074.00 ...would target  2084.75  2079.25 Bias-down: under  2071.75  2066.25 ...would target 2066.75  2061.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Wide swings persist. This morning's 2062.75 bias-down target is "unfinished business below." Exiting the bias environment above its 2068.00 bias-down signal could have invalidated the signal. But despite probing it by 4 points, the bias environment's exit was probing under 2068.00. An even larger rally is possible, regardless of the attraction below. It's just less likely, and unlikely to extend. But that's no reason to short strength. Regardless, the open's wide swings persisted through the morning, and still imply the same expectation: That finally neutralizing the attraction below will produce a substantial rally.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Gapping down Tuesday was within Friday's range, and not under all prior lows, making it unlikely to trend down. The balance of the session ranged has ranged narrowly flat-to-higher, albeit not recovering the gap down from Monday's close. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday was the second consecutive narrow ranging session at recent lows, which doesn't reject the trend, but does open the door to a corrective bounce before extending down to 1074.50. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down Tuesday tried trending down intraday, but only spent the session ranging in negative territory. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Firming into Tuesday afternoon attacked 152-30, which can resume the decline to probe fresh lows, or else have potential for extending to 153-21 first. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Tuesday's bounce peaked before attacking the decline's 44.95 bounce limit, keeping alive the decline's momentum next targeting 43.00. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Gapping up slightly to probe above 2.31 still needed to close above 2.37 to launch a rally. Initial strength at Wednesday's open would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Tuesday's session is a different version of Friday. Probing of relevant support held, but wasn't rejected. So, not gapping up Wednesday would be vulnerable to probing lower lows. Friday and Tuesday differ from each other in two ways -- the morning didn't plunge this time, and the afternoon probed fresh session highs. But their similarities are more meaningful since both mornings were wide-ranging, and both afternoons waited until very late before probing fresh highs. Neutralizing "unfinished business below" at Tuesday morning's 2062.75 bias-down target would also likely retest Monday's 2062.00 low. And that could launch a substantial rally. Otherwise, maintaining a sufficient gap up Wednesday could simply rally without the morning unpleasantness. Wednesday is Veteran's Day (U.S.) /Remembrance Day (Europe). Its solemness might be juxtaposed against a session that provides both volatility and trending, as the government holiday creates thinner participation. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbzvs

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2086.00 2080.50 ...would target  2091.50  2086.00 Bias-down: under  2076.75  2071.25 ...would target 2071.00  2065.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.