Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 12-03-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's correction from testing its 2103.00 bias-up signal was exacerbated by the afternoon's incident in California. An extra downleg originated during the afternoon's no-bias environment down to 2075.00. That left "unfinished business above" at the untriggered 2091.00 bias-down signal, if not also its 2094.50 1:20 print. A couple of recovery attempts formed from RSIs diverging positively, but they couldn't get past 2084.00 as it had become too late to recover. Overnight action's new info... 2084.00 was tested and retested until Europe's opens triggered a break higher. Unfinished business above at 2091.00 was soon attacked to within 3 ticks. Its consolidation around 2088.00 has resolved up optimistically to 2095.25 ahead of this morning's ECB policy statement (and Draghi's press conference). If, then... Closing yesterday above 2088.00 was required for the rally's resumption to remain likely today. The exacerbated decline came late enough to inhibit a recovery from attracting sponsorship. So, by proxy, this morning's open can compensate for the delay by opening above the last relative high, That's 2095.25, which has been touched. So, the open is certainly in position to resume the rally. The most bullish scenario if NOT extending higher through the open would be to spend the morning backing-and-filling to test 2084.50 as support. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2092.25 would be likely to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target is 2095.25, and exiting the open above 2099.00 would be likely to renew it, too. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15.

Pre-open bounce fails to attract post-open buyers. The pre-open drop to 2072.00 was recovered pre-open up to 2087.50. Like the overnight rally -- and like recent overnight and pre-open rallies -- that cycle forced the open to defend against another pullback. Defenses were down. Opening at the 2082.00 bias-up signal was reversed down to the 2076.50 and through the 2071.50 bias-down target. The 10:15 bias timing window was testing the renewed 2066.25 renewed bias-down target. And holding. This is still a bias-down environment. And spending more than several minutes probing a fresh low would likely become a new downleg targeting 2051.00.

Meanwhile, a lot of selling pressure has been expended. Even this morning's most bullish scenario can be limited to 2075.00 or 2079.75. But that's the scenario that would open the door to a bullish afternoon.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2079.50 2078.50 ...would target  2085.00  2084.25 Bias-down: under  2066.50 2065.75 ...would target 2061.00  2060.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A new downleg may be forming after all. This morning's extended bias-down target at 2065.25 was met, and held. Its reaction up tested the 2076.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Choppy action ensued as Fed Chair Yellen testified to Congress. Then the testimony ended. Trending could hardly wait to resume. And it resumed the earlier trend. Fresh lows were tested down to 2057.00, which is now being retested during a wider consolidation. The consolidation is ranging around this afternoon's 2060.00 bias-down target. This is below the overnight reaction to Turkey's shoot down of the Russian fighter jet. Had this morning's renewed bias-down been renewed again under 2065.25, then its objective was 14 points lower at 2051.00. A noon hour fresh low could be shallower and still recover. But the noon hour is lapsing, without rejecting its fresh lows. The next lower objective is 2051.00. The 2060.00 bias-down target can be recovered by 1:20 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. But it would still be a bias-down environment, and vulnerable to testing 2051.00. Exiting the bias environment back above the 2066.00 area would be the next opportunity for a credible rally.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Recent tests of prior lows and Wednesday's bullish pivot reversal created very fertile ground for Thursday's ECB monetary moves. Recovering 1.0650 on the way to 1.0945 may be a one-day wonder, but a pullback has room to 1.0750 without reversing the trend back down. Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday's reaction to the ECB statement was relatively muted for being at its trend lows but having neutralized all attractions below. So the test of 1061.50 reversed back down to 1053.00. The afternoon did recover to end the day retesting 1061.50, more credibly, but still needing follow-through Thursday. Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The reaction to Thursday's ECB events surged to 14.10 resistance, whose recovery would trigger a buy signal needing only a second consecutive higher close to confirm a new rally leg underway. Its intraday reaction down was recovered entirely, so there's little excuse to delay rallying Friday. 30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday's close actually produced a higher close, barely confirming the prior session's breakout. That's dubious, at best, considering Thursday's 4-1/4 point plunge. Support is at 151-08 and not likely to be reversed up immediately. Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Wednesday's breakout was retraced Thursday to probe back above the basing pattern's 41.35, and not confirmed. That is the second step to forming a bottom, the next step now being to extend back up aggressively through the basing pattern. Any shallower strength, or simply weakening, would not be bullish. Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday's EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength. But the morning's fresh low at 2.13 was at least retraced back into Wednesday's range instead of confirming its breakout.

Thursday's bias environment exit was overlapping 2045.00. The final hour was entered above it, so sellers didn't gain traction. Oversold RSIs at their 2040.00 interim dip requires a retest. And that  retest is likely to visit 2035.25. Sellers can regain traction by gapping down. So, unless that lower low is tested by gapping down, its test could be rejected to end the decline. The decline can end for awhile without even retesting the 2040.00 low, and instead gapping up above Thursday afternoon's 2063.00 high. Friday's Employment Situation report would have to find Thursday's decline oversold in order to react up durably pre-open. The more bullish path higher would visit the fresh lows, first. Of course, with the weekend bearing down, that would risk extending down even more sharply through the open. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyspym

This evening, to monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom just CLICK HERE.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2054.25 2053.50 ...would target  2059.25  2058.50 Bias-down: under  2045.50  2044.75 ...would target 2039.25  2038.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.