Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 12-08-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Monday's gap down had extended lower without hesitation, not until fulfilling the 2075.00 minimum corrective target that was required after Friday afternoon's weak-handed rally. The balance of the morning extended down, too, fulfilling the correction's penultimate potential to 2065.00. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, until a late surge ended the cash session back at 2075.00. Overnight action's new info... The late surge had extended up to 2082.00 through the futures close. The Globex open immediately reversed back down to attack 2069.00. Choppy flat-to-lower ranging went on to attack yesterday's ~2065.00 lows. And now that is breaking lower to 2062.00. If, then... Yesterday's late surge didn't require being corrected since its sponsorship was not counter-trend. Correcting anyway could be satisfied at 2073.00 or 2071.00. Dipping deeper overnight is not predictive, not even all the way back down to yesterday's lows. Already recovering back above 2073.00 or 2071.00 through the open could leverage the extra rejected dip into a much more powerful morning rally. Otherwise, Monday's correction of Friday afternoon's rally may instead resume to its ultimate potential target of 2060.00. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2071.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2073.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2075.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open at 9:15 already back under 2065.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2066.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Rally window is closed for now. The bullish template was disqualified when the open delayed rallying, and instead extended down. A bearish template didn't fill the void, not without the opening 15 minutes of volatility being exited under the opening print, which it was not. That alone warns us of a choppy morning ahead, if not a choppy session. And this is regardless of there being an objective in-play, like the potential for choppy ranging to visit 2048.00 at some point. Exiting the bias environment above 2060.00 would start to undermine sellers. There is otherwise much greater potential to probe fresh lows.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2072.25 2071.00 ...would target  2078.25 2077.00 Bias-down: under  2061.00  2059.25 ...would target 2057.75 2053.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Big recovery attempt stops short of gaining traction. As the open's volatility warned, this morning's price action would not trend. The opening hour's fluctuation touched 2062.00 at its high, before reversing back down to fresh lows at 2050.25. Despite surging up to 2073.25, the noon hour was entered back at 2062.00. So, potential down to 2048.00 remains alive -- not in-play at the moment. But dipping back into the open's range would all but ensure probing a fresh low, presumably down to 2048.00. Resuming the rally and triggering this afternoon's bias-up signal still wouldn't invalidate the potential downside. But the potential downside remains a vulnerability otherwise.

Tuesday's opening setup predicted the session's choppiness. Actually, it predicted the morning's choppiness. The afternoon's narrower choppiness was a bonus. Nevertheless, the session wasn't bearish. It did gao down, twice probing fresh lows, and the entire first hour was resisted by the 2060.00 ultimate corrective attraction. Nevertheless, sellers never gained any traction. The first hour's range held as support through several afternoon tests. Downlegs were not the product of distribution, but consequences of failed rally legs. Ultimately 2060.00 held as support through the cash session close to avoid putting into play any lower objective. Probing under 2060.00 post-close wasn't predictive. Closing above 2065.00 and 2067.00 would have been bullish. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction on the day, so gapping open in either way Wednesday would be credible for extending in that direction. Up would be attracted to 2088.00. Down would next target 2048.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsrzxk

The new Omnijoin configuration should be available during the evening, and I'll post its link in the chaRTroom if you want to try it then. Meanwhile, monitor overnight Globex trading at: non-xp ilinc

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2068.75 2067.50 ...would target  2075.50  2074.25 Bias-down: under  2058.00  2056.75 ...would target 2052.75  2051.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.