Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Christmas Eve's early close spent the morning ranging choppily sideways under Wednesday's 2057.50 highs. Breaking higher into the noon hour attacked 2060.00. The last half-hour plunged to probe under the morning's 2050.50 low. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open surged briefly to 2054.50, and then began retracing entirely back down to 2050.50. And through it, recently probing fresh lows down to 2043.25. If, then... Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. Monday's open is indicated currently beyond the prior session's range, attacking Wednesday morning's lows. Probing today back above Thursday's will be difficult without opening back above Thursday's 2051.50 low. Meanwhile, trending down this morning would be difficult if the bias-down signal isn't renewed under 2041.50. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2045.50 would be likely to trigger the 2047.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2038.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering the 2041.50 bias-down target at 10:15.

Post-open recovery stops short. Of two bullish paths, one was disqualified by the pre-open bounce to 2045.50. It required at least attacking the 2041.50 bias-down target, if not actually retesting it. The post-open dip did retest it, and recovered to within 1 tick of the 2047.00 bias-down signal. Resisting its approach was expected, and so was the potential for its reaction down not holding corrective limits. Corrective pullback limits didn't hold. The reaction down extended through the 2040.25 overnight low to 2037.75. The 2041.50 bias-down target's break through 10:15 renewed the bias-down signal. RSIs diverged positively at the low, enabling a 3-point bounce. It has room up to 2041.75 or 2043.25 before suggesting an actual recovery underway. Meanwhile, back under 2038.75 would start to signal the drop was extending to 2034.25 and potentially 2032.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2051.50 2043.25 ...would target  2056.50  2048.50 Bias-down: under  2045.75  2037.50 ...would target 2040.25  2032.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Were morning's buyers a little slow on the uptake? This morning's drop came within 1 point of its next lower objective at 2034.25. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs improved into the low, so that might be sufficient for a bottom to form after this morning's recovery attempt failed. So far, a bounce has attacked 2043.00. Much higher much later could trigger this afternoon's bias-up signal. That would trap the overnight extreme sentiment and the morning's extension. The pre-open bounce would extend back to last week's highs. That bullish path isn't at all assured or required. In fact, this morning's one credible rally setup was attempted and rejected. There is no "unfinished business below" outstanding, so buyers aren't marginalized. But sellers certainly aren't marginalized, either. A fresh session high above 2047.00 is needed to reverse the trend up. Until then, the decline is vulnerable to resuming. And having stopped short of it 2034.25 objective, potential to 2032.00 is a likelier attraction.

(Please disregard any strange emails you received earlier, as my marketing person loaded the wrong mailer... Sorry!) The afternoon's bias environment wasn't exited above the morning's high, making further upside more difficult, if not unlikely. But buyers had barely tried to probe higher, so there wasn't much failure deserving a bearish consequence. So, the balance of the session was contained within the afternoon bias environment's range. The afternoon bias environment had probed above the morning's high, and failed. That was an unsuccessful effort. But it didn't result in a probe under prior lows, or in any downleg. This keeps the door open to rallying Tuesday -- unless sellers retake control immediately. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts Monday. So, gapping open in either direction would be credible for extending in that direction. Not gapping would be more difficult to extend before the afternoon. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhvptc

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2058.75 2050.50 ...would target  2064.25  2056.25 Bias-down: under  2050.00  2042.00 ...would target 2044.75  2036.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.