Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's open gapped up a couple of points to 3239.25, isolating the overnight drop to 3181.00 and its complete recovery. The immediate bullish influence was obvious, regardless of the morning's recovery being limited to its 3249.00 bias-up target. Surging to 3262.00 before noon was corrected down to 3255.00 until the afternoon bias environment exit resumed the rally to new highs at 3267.75. Sirens sounded in Baghdad just in time for a last-minute collapse to 3252.00, and its reaction back up to 3254.00 and 3260.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Another missile strike misses again. The late drop's recovery from 3252.00 extended through the Globex open to attack 3265.00-3266.00. A corrective dip down to 3258.00 recovered to attack yesterday's high to within 3 ticks at 3267.00. The recovery extended sharply higher up to new highs at 3274.00 through Europe's  opens. Its complexity qualifies as a "new Globex trend extreme" that will require intraday retest, and a consolidation has been holding 3269.00 as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) It was a suspicion yesterday, and now seems pretty likely, that Wednesday had intended to end above last Thursday's high close. If not for the last-minute collapse in reaction to a missile strike, the close above 3260.00 would have put into play the rally's next higher objective at 3355.00. That has yet to be signaled by a close, regardless of the overnight rally's new upside attraction. Yesterday still qualified as a breakout from a multi-session range, so a second consecutive higher close today would confirm. Probing, trending, or simply hovering above prior highs is likely because Wednesday's rally gained traction for its effort. None of which requires closing in positive territory, which we'll address going into the afternoon. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3269.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3266.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 3274.00, then 3281.00. Exiting the open above 3263.25 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 3258.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

But upside momentum needs a boost. Trending up to the 3274.00 overnight high had complexity that made it a "new Globex trend extreme." That required its intraday retest, which the open's surge already neutralized. Touching 3274.00 reacted down sharply, eventually down to 3265.50. Its reaction filled the gap back up to the 3271.00 opening print, which also required a retest. Upside attractions are being neutralized as quickly as they're being created. At least, those two. Meanwhile, dips have held the 3266.75 bias-up target as support through 10:15 to signal a renewed bias-up. The renewed bias-up target is 3274.00 and was already tested. Its post-10:15 test is likely, but not required and it won't become "unfinished business" if left outstanding this morning. Yesterday's rally gained traction to make this morning likely at least to hover above yesterday's highs, if not also to trend up. Trending up would next target 3281.00. The opportunity seems to have passed for this morning to detour down -- to the 3262.00 gap-to-gap retracement or lower -- so breaking lower later would be less likely to recover.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3277.50 3277.50 ...would target 3283.25 3283.25 Bias-down: under 3267.50 3267.75 ...would target 3261.75 3262.00 Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

No "unfinished business" above. This morning's renewed bias-up signal was likely to retest the 3274.00 renewed bias-up target, despite already testing it at the open. The morning probed it a couple of times up to 3275.25. The test held. Being a renewed target, 3274.00 would not have become "unfinished business" if left outstanding. Not like the 3271.00 open's gap up above all prior highs, or the 3274.00 overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme." Both were also neutralized. All while rewarding yesterday's rally for gaining traction, by letting buyers control the morning. Fresh highs into the noon hour would have been that much more bullish, for extending higher without an active attraction. But the morning's highs were only probed before reacting down to fresh post-open lows attacking 3264.00. Now this afternoon's no-bias environment may probe fresh highs up to its 3277.50 bias-up signal. News of another rocket attack failed to trigger bias-down, so a bigger reward is possible for absorbing the headline's knee-jerk reaction. Positive territory has persisted through the open, so just just hovering in positive territory would reinforce the rally.

Wednesday's attempt at a new high close above 3259.25 was shot down very late by a rocket attack headline. Recovering overnight to new highs at 3274.00 suggested as much. The headline's reaction was shallow enough to still allow Wednesday's close to serve as a breakout. And now Thursday's second consecutive higher close has confirmed. At least an eventual third higher close is now required. The new upside attraction is appearing just in time. Other "unfinished business" was neutralized intraday. So, pretty bullish, right? Not so fast.

Thursday's gap up ultimately ranged flat-to-higher through the morning's bias environment to form a Gap-and-Go setup. The afternoon's sideways ranging was choppy, but held positive territory to confirm. Its subsequent session usually is a pullback.

Also, Thursday's session ultimately ranged sideways, being full of legs that repeatedly overlapped the 3271.00 open. Confirming a breakout with a non-trending session is usually followed by a pullback, too.

Friday brings the Employment Situation report, which might have inhibited afternoon trending. So, we'll give an early buy signal every benefit of the doubt if triggered. Pre-report sentiment might have been overly-optimistic, which I suspect because of the late retest of Thursday's earlier 3276.75 high. So, early weakness would be entirely credible for producing a pullback through the morning, if not also through the close, or just to range sideways all afternoon. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3277.50 3277.50 ...would target 3284.75 3284.75 Bias-down: under 3262.75 3263.00 ...would target 3255.50 3255.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.