Reliable Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 01-12-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s pre-open Employment Situation report was greeted from Thursday''s test of targets above 2052.00. The knee-jerk reaction up held only through the opening ticks up to 2061.00 before plunging 30 points to 2031.00. But downtrending was isolated only the morning''s bias environment. The balance of the session bounced up to 2047.00, which reacted down to 2038.00 into the cash session close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Friday''s late reaction down to 2038.00 had extended to almost 2033.00 after the cash session close. Sunday night''s open retraced that last leg momentarily. Rallying into Europe''s opens has extended higher, retracing the rest of Friday''s late decline from 2047.00.

If, then...
As we discussed during this weekend''s Saturday Review, Friday''s singular isolated downleg did not necessarily prove that last week''s correction had ended. Immediately retracing Friday''s late decline -- as is currently indicated -- would further undermine the correction scenario. The open is still 90 minutes away. And even the scenario for resuming the rally would still allow this morning to retest Friday''s lows first.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2044.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2045.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at the 10:15 bias timing window. Exiting the open under 2037.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Opening plunge chills the overnight rally.

Actually, the overnight rally to 2048.25 had been retraced pre-open to test 2037.00. Its support was so substantial that holding its test or not through 9:45 would have made the bias-up signal''s test likely or not. Already reacting up 5 points into the open made reversing back under 2039.25 likely to retest 2037.00.

Retest is the wrong word. Obliterate is a better characterization of how the break under 2039.25 disposed of 2037.00 support, on its way through the 2026.50 bias-down target to the doubly-renewed bias-down target at 2015.50.

2015.50 reacted up into a very sloppy range that eventually extended to its 2029.00 bounce target. The initial sloppiness suggests the bounce is only temporary. Simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the 2015.50 low also suggest the bounce is only temporary. The low could be retested down to 2013.00 or 2009.25.

Retesting Friday morning''s lows this morning could still prove to be bullish near-term. Exiting the bias environment above 2029.00 would be only half of that battle. But also entering the noon hour back above 2033.00 would start to signal today''s trend had reversed up.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2037.75
2031.00
...would target 2043.75
2037.00
Bias-down: under 2025.50
2018.75
...would target 2019.75
2013.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday''s shallow Pivotal Correction pattern was able to produce a gap up to fresh highs Sunday night testing 1.1865 resistance, but the balance of the session ranged back down to 1.1825 support. The effects of the Pivotal Correction pattern are largely moot.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Delaying the pullback did extend higher to fulfill the minimum required third higher close. Having rallied overnight to 1231.30 before opening back under last week''s 1223.00 high. Recovering intraday tested 1232.00, which was extended post-close up to 1236.00. Closing above 1241.50 would signal a more substantial rally underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite remaining in positive territory all day after gapping up, the narrow range was an inside day that is would confirm new lows in-play back under 16.20.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Monday.through Friday''s highs extended higher intraday to attack 148-23 as resistance. Its break as support had triggered the interim pullback to 146-18. Back above 148-23 could probe 150-00, albeit probably only momentarily before reversing down more aggressively.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Delaying the recovery from 47.45 did dip into Monday morning to fulfill the room for noise down to 45.90. That was the low, and it wasn''t recovered. Closing lower Tuesday would confirm Monday''s breakout from a multi-session range which requires at least one more lower close. More so, it would break too far away from 47.45 to recover prior to an extended decline. Closing back above 47.45 Tuesday could start to seal a bottom.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night''s reaction down from Friday''s test of 2.98 resistance
 produced a gap down Monday under the ~2.83 prior lows that that extended to 2.78. There is no active buy signal.

If Monday morning''s decline had extended through the close... then any attempt to recover would be doomed to failure. At least a recovery attempt from Monday''s actual pattern could succeed if it included a probe of fresh lows. But even then, no requirement is recovered.

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
It too all day, but oversold RSIs at Monday''s 2015.25 low were finally attacked. But still not retested. 

A difference of 2 ticks remained outstanding when the position-squaring window opened at 3:37. Its reaction up to 2026.50 reacted back down 6 points into the close.

Exiting the bias environment under noon hour would have been bearish if the final hour weren''t entered higher. That doesn''t preclude probing fresh lows, but it makes them likely to recover.

Since retesting Monday''s 2015.25 low should include 2013.00, dipping overnight could already be in recovery mode at Tuesday''s open. Waiting until the open before probing a fresh low would be dangerous, but still recoverable if done abruptly.

There is no requirement to recover. Declining since Thursday''s test of 2052.00 is entirely in-line with that being the corrective bounce''s peak. Rallying prematurely overnight -- not first neutralizing the nearby attraction below -- would be considered a detour on the way to new lows.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)
AA kicked-off the quarterly earnings onslaught after Monday''s close. And econ reports start picking up again. Keep in mind the market''s reaction to one news item might be retraced entirely and abruptly by the reaction to another news item.

DAY morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2038.25
2031.50
...would target 2043.75
2037.00
Bias-down: under 2025.50
2018.75
...would target 2019.75
2013.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.