Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Opening flat Tuesday at 2642.75 didn't inhibit wide-ranging choppiness. Rallying up to 2650.00 and dropping down to 2638.25 was already volatile. But another bounce through 10:15 collapsed to within 3 ticks of overnight lows at 2629.25. Trending never arrived but the choppiness continued, perhaps inhibited ahead of AAPL's post-open earnings. Dips recovered to 2644.00, and a late-afternoon dip to 2633.50 only recovered to within 2 points of unchanged at 2641.00. A retest of oversold RSIs at the morning's low was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... AAPL's earnings "surprise" wasn't much, but it was the opposite of Monday and Tuesday's warnings and misses. Its favorable response triggered a surge through the Globex open that probed Tuesday morning's low by 1 point up to 2651.00. The pattern since then has largely tracked the prior night's choppy ranging, probably becoming inhibited by this afternoon's FOMC events, although last night's range is actually widening. Reversing back down to 2637.50 bounced to 2647.00 and repeated; reversing down again attacked 2636.00 and bounced to now test 2648.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Probing above Tuesday morning's highs wouldn't have been surprising. Yesterday's post-close AAPL reaction might have fulfilled that potential, so repeating it this morning would likely extend at least a little further to test 2653.00. Sponsorship for much higher than that might be difficult to attract as this afternoon's FOMC events grow nearer. Not probing higher, or quickly rejecting an early probe to avoid triggering bias-up, would create an attraction back down near yesterday's low, which could retest yesterday's low, but also lack sponsorship for digging any deeper before FOMC. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2648.50 would be likely to trigger the 2647.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2645.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gapping up into untested territory finds natural resistance. The overnight 2636.00-2648.00 range resolved up sharply to test 2655.00. Reacting down to 2649.00 had recovered entirely by the open, which then improved only momentarily to attack 2657.00. But the open only fluctuated around 2656.00. A 10-point drop tested the 2647.00 bias-up signal, which held. So did a retest, triggering bias-up. Its 2653.00 bias-up target was met already, and it's being tested again now up to 2655.00. This is still a bias-up environment, so higher highs are likely. But it is difficult to attract sponsorship for trending ahead of the afternoon's FOMC events. Meanwhile, the bias-up environment can retest its bias-up signal as support, which would become more vulnerable to breaking lower as the bias window lapses.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2664.75 2663.50 ...would target 2671.25 2670.00 Bias-down: under 2655.25 2653.75 ...would target 2646.50 2645.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Strong rally ahead of FOMC. The post-open dip down to this morning's 2647.00 bias-up signal held to maintain the bias-up, quickly extending back up to and through the 2653.00 bias-up target. Well through it. To and through last Friday's 2660.00 "higher prior lows" and up to 2667.00. That's pretty optimistic ahead of an FOMC policy statement and Fed chair Q&A. Reacting down through the noon hour's exit is testing 2657.00, and reintroducing some pessimism. A favorable reaction to the news won't be as difficult. A favorable reaction to the news also isn't required to be maintained. A favorable reaction isn't required at all. But closing above 2666.00 would start requiring the rally to resume. And having probed 2666.00 intraday, closing back under 2656.00 would suggest the bounce is done.

CORRECTION: My early departure on Friday has been delayed by one week. This week will finish out normally. Wednesday's rally began somewhat impatiently, probing overnight above 2648.00 before the 1-2 hour false break window. The 2653.00 open wasted no time fulfilling the bias-up target, which was 2653.00. And its post-open pullback to 2647.00 recovered into a 20-point rally into the noon hour. The only signs of patience was in the FOMC's policy statement. By then, defensive posturing had pulled back to 2655.00, and correcting the morning's excessive optimism created room for more. The news reaction surged 29 points to 2684.00, and the Fed Chair's Q&A extended that to attack 2690.00. The final hour dipped to 2674.25, and ranged narrowly into the close. Perhaps inhibited ahead of MSFT and FB post-close earnings. Reacting favorably to their beats similar to AAPL enabled futures to firm up to 2683.00, also inspired by NQs surging. Closing above 2666.00 from under 2656.00. puts into play 2701.00 (subject to a second consecutive higher confirming close Thursday, which could already fulfill 2701.00). Or, not. Having closed above 2666.00, gapping down under 2656.00 Thursday would reject Wednesday's upside momentum.  The 1-1/2 week-long Ascending Triangle only probed higher, but ended the day only overlapping its prior high -- vulnerable to reversing down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2688.25 2687.00 ...would target 2696.25 2695.00 Bias-down: under 2674.75 2673.25 ...would target 2668.25 2666.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.