Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's gap up to 3290.25 collapsed 21 points to attack 3270.00, and then surged 17 points to 3287.00 -- all before exiting the morning bias at 11:30. Pre-FOMC anxiousness enforced a sideways 4-5 point range around 3287.00 which is where the announcement was greeted. A delayed blip-up probed overnight highs by 1 point to 3292.75, and its reaction into the Fed Chair's Q&A eventually accelerated to fulfill its likely objective of retesting the morning's low. A last-minute reaction up from 3269.50 closed at 3271.00, leaving no "unfinished business" above or higher objectives outstanding. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A post-close 6-point spike down to 3265.00 was immediately reversed back up 22-1/2 points at Globex open, already testing the 3277.00 bias-up signal. The bias-up signal's resistance, in a big way, and soon the post-close spike down was being probed on the way to 3240.00 by Europe's opens. A 19-point reversal peaked at the 3259.00 bias-down target's resistance, which has also held. Its reaction is now bouncing from 3242.75. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday night's 3292.00 high was sufficient to fulfill the correction's next higher objective, essentially around 3294.00. Yesterday afternoon's 3292.75 high qualified, too. With no higher objective in-play, and no excuse to delay resuming the decline from Friday's high, already collapsing 53 points sure seems like refreshed sellers have retaken control. Meanwhile, their impatience is already testing natural support at Monday's ~3240.00 close. Too much, too soon, could produce at least another corrective bounce, at least for the morning -- whatever its afternoon resolution. The line in the sand between that, or else extending down, is currently at 3251.00-3257.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3257.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3259.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 3251.00.

Corrected oversold. Yesterday's 3292.75 high had fulfilled the corrective bounce potential, and the decline was likely to resume without delay. But dropping overnight to 3240.00 suggested that impatient sellers already needed another corrective bounce. Exiting the above or below 3251.00-3257.00 was likely to extend in that direction. A pre-open bounce was consolidated largely between 3251.00-3257.00. Blipping-down pre-open to 3248.50 snapped back up to 3264.25. Ranging between 3257.00-3264.25 through the 10:15 bias timing window easily triggered bias-down, overlapping its 3259.00 bias-down target. Now testing 3246.00. Exiting the open above 3257.00 was already well rewarded, bias-down triggered, and bias-down is still trending down past the first hour. I'm giving sellers every benefit of the doubt, so long as 3251.00 isn't recovered, next targeting 3227.00-3228.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3266.50 3264.75 ...would target 3272.25 3270.50 Bias-down: under 3256.75 3255.00 ...would target 3249.75 3248.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Again. This morning's reaction down from attacking 3265.00 collapsed down to 3241.00. Natural resistance is there, being Monday's cash session close. A corrective bounce exceeded its likely target to attack 3263.00 by noon. Impressive. Even more impressive is its timing. Exiting the open above 3257.00 was bullish. Already being well-rewarded had allowed its reversal to be credible. Its reversal was also very productive, but still recovered to exit the bias window back above 3257.00. Higher highs would likely fill the gap back up to yesterday's 3272.50 close, or higher to 3279.00. First things, first. That impressive bounce attacking 3263.00 reacted down to 3244.00. Bias-down is triggered, and its target is already met like this morning. Bouncing during this bias window would likely be limited to testing 3255.00-3257.00 as resistance. And meanwhile the decline is free to resume.

Trending down overnight was in-line with having completed the corrective bounce at Wednesday's 3292.75 high. But already dropping 53 points overnight to 3239.75 was likely excessive pessimism that deserved at least a corrective bounce. In fact, bouncing 25 points through the open was retraced almost entirely during the morning. And bouncing 22 points into the noon hour was retraced almost entirely during the afternoon. An interesting pattern was emerging: Sizeable retracements back to the lows were producing sizeable bounces. And not arbitrarily sizeable, but each bounce was recovering back above 3257.00 at each timing window's exit. The morning and afternoon bias-down signals were triggering, but their bias-down targets were already met. So, the pattern of repeatedly trapping sellers had formed a short-squeeze setup. Its potential to add another 22 points above 3257.00 was far exceeded up to 3292.00 through the close -- essentially retracing Wednesday's post-FOMC drop. So, has the bounce reset the decline so it may resume again? Possibly, and a bias-down Friday morning or any initial dip not recovered through the open would be credible for extending down into the weekend. Meanwhile, not yet reversing down out of Friday's open could be squeezed higher again by influence from Friday Factors. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3288.25 3286.50 ...would target 3294.50 3292.75 Bias-down: under 3278.00 3276.25 ...would target 3269.75 3268.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.