Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Globex gapped down and later extended to 4056-4057 through Fri morning and a noon hour dip. Their interim 4075 high was recovered at the P.M. bias window exit to form a bullish Friday PM Drift. Its rally to fresh post-open highs at the 4090 61.8% proxy gap hovered there through the close.
Overnight price points : Sun night's Globex repeatedly ranged back down to 4075 through Mon's holiday trading, which formed a Descending Triangle. Mon night began breaking lower to range back down to 4067, then collapsing into Europe's opens extended down to 4048. Bouncing sharply to 4070 was retraced back down to 4051.
Catalysts : PMI, Earnings ongoing, Expiration exit, holiday-shortened week, Russia invasion rumblings.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Expiration unwind, Relentless overnight trending.
Their influences : WedEX did not trigger either direction for this morning, and all but rejected triggering a bearish signal. This doesn't default in one way or the other, but it does keep the door open for rallying out of the opening print... After only trending overnight, either attracting reinforcements or countertrend sponsorship through the first 15 minutes can forecast the morning's direction.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : The "Bigger Picture" update that I published this weekend describes a list of potentially bullish inputs. That potential would be derived from their recent bearish influence lapsing as of today's open. None  of which is yet indicated, not when overnight is trending back down to prior lows. Breaking Fri's lows would likely extend to challenge the 2-week old downtrending channel's lower-end in the 4030's.
Alternative : Outsized swings have started to develop around Fri's low, which already forecasts a wide intraday range, much more so as the product of Relentless overnight trending. An obligatory probe under Fri's 4056-4057 lows that had become likely is now fulfilled, and exiting the open above 4063-4068 could fill the gap today back up to Fri's 4088 cash session close.
Levels : UP: 4108, 4133, 4188, 4231... DOWN: 4036, 4001, 3968.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Sun night's Globex repeatedly ranged back down to 4075 through Mon's holiday trading, which formed a Descending Triangle. Mon night began breaking lower to range back down to 4067, then collapsing into Europe's opens extended down to 4048. Bouncing sharply to 4070 was consolidated.
New price points : A last-minute blip-down to fresh lows at 4044 formed a contrarian buy setup that reacted up through the first 15 minutes to 4056. Resolving down relentlessly since than has extended to 4029
Catalysts : PMI, Earnings ongoing, Expiration exit, holiday-shortened week, Russia invasion rumblings.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN RENEWED... Extreme/excessive-sentiment, RSIs positive divergence.
Their influences : The first-15 minute range was exceeded at 10:00 and that was exceeded at 10:30, extreme sentiment that tends either to be overdone and reversed, or else part of a much more substantial leg... Both 1-min and 3-min RSIs diverging positively is a call for reinforcements to the prevailing downtrend, but meanwhile vulnerability to reversing.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Breaking Fri's lows is now probing the 2-week old downtrending channel's lower-end to 4029, and producing the wide intraday range that was forecast by overnight outsized swings. RSIs diverging positively at extreme sentiment is enabling a bounce to 4053 and potentially 4066.
Alternative : 1) Don't tolerate much pullback to a buy signal -- you can always re-enter long, but meanwhile the Extreme sentiment reading can reassert its bearish influence more easily than continue being reversed up. So, 2) consider embracing being whipsawed out of shorts, instead of avoiding shorts, because reasserting the bearish influence can extend to 4001.
Levels : UP: 4108, 4133, 4188, 4231... DOWN: 4036, 4001, 3968.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

TUE P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4028, targeting 4043.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4012, targeting 4001.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.