VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Market Pre-Open Strategy - 7:47 AM
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Previously : Sun night's Globex formed a Descending Triangle down to 4075 through Mon's holiday trading, breaking lower Mon night and collapsing into Europe's opens. Bouncing sharply from 4048 to 4070 greeted Tue's open probing fresh lows and extended down to 4002. The last 60-90 minutes ranged up to 4016.
Overnight price points : Initially flat-to-higher ranging to 4016 through midnight was restrained by there being likely at least a brief probe under yesterday's lows. Of which Europe's break lower produced several, ultimately down to 3996. Each reacted up into the range, most recently through it to 4021.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, FOMC Minutes, holiday-shortened week, Russia invasion rumblings.
Setups/Patterns : Globex-flip.
Their influences : Overnight robing under intraday lows, but reversing to exit the fist 15 minutes above the Globex open's range, forecasts a reversal that should persist through the morning. Forming the setup but not triggering it at 9:45 can point down.
Premise : Isolating the trend's newest sellers overnight by exiting the open back above the 4005-4011 Globex open range can at least influence the morning, with 4043-4048 being a likely candidate. This would be too shallow to reject Tue's break under the 2-week old downtrending channel, but its consolidation could extend into a reversal if not extend itself already.
Alternative : Now having reversed overnight fresh trend lows back above the 4005-4011 Globex open range (and more: prior overnight highs, bias-up signal), exiting the open back under the Globex open range would all but ensure duplicating yesterday's aggressive decline.
Levels : UP: 4044, 4108, 4133... DOWN: 4001, 3968, 3945.
Post Open Market Review - 11:04 AM
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Previously : Initially flat-to-higher ranging to 4016 through midnight was restrained by there being likely at least a brief probe under yesterday's lows. Of which Europe's break lower produced several, ultimately down to 3996. Each reacted up into the range, finally up to 4021 thanks to Fed speaker Bullard's CNBC headlines.
New price points : Dipping to 4007 into the open recovered 4018 to trigger a bullish Globex-flip. But trending down since then triggered bias-down, and absorbed an attempt to reject it through 10:30. All of which is followed by yet another whipsaw, from 3990 to now test 4008.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, FOMC Minutes, holiday-shortened week, Russia invasion rumblings.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP... Globex-flip.
Their influences : Wed's first-15 minutes rejected the overnight probe under yesterday's lows, but its bullish influence didn't prevent triggering bias-down. It's clearly not the setup's intent, but the door remains open to reversing up sharply. And that would be more credible for a durable bottom if the 3986 bias-down target were met.
Triggers/Tactics : The bullish Globex-flip's only shortcoming was in never exceeding pre-open highs, but it otherwise triggered cleanly. So, it is assumed to have formed a position of strength that will be retested if not also reversed. This context tells us the interim bias-down is likely only a temporary detour, at least undermining today's opportunity to confirm yesterday's break lower. The steep bounces along the way down suggest as much. So, even if the bias-down target were left unmet as unfinished business below, any buy signal coming out of the noon hour would be credible for launching the substantial rally that was suggested by the bullish Globex-flip.
Alternative : The 3986 bias-down target is in-play, and back under 4000 would signal its move back in-play.
Levels : UP: 4044, 4108, 4133... DOWN: 4001, 3968, 3945.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4016, targeting 4030.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3998, targeting 3986.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Mid-Day Thoughts - 1:48 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Flat-to-higher ranging hovered at 4016 through midnight before breaking lower at Europe's opens, probing Tue's low down to 3996. Bouncing to 4021 on Fed speaker headlines was reversed even lower to 3990. Its reaction bounced to 4008.
New price points : The bounce extended through the noon hour and triggered bias-up on the way to probing overnight highs up to 4023.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, FOMC Minutes, holiday-shortened week, Russia invasion rumblings.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS... Globex-flip, Unfinished business, Accumulation, Unfinished business.
Their influences : The bullish Globex-flip didn't influence the morning, but it did create a position of strength that wanted to be retested, suggesting the morning's drop was only a temporary detour. This attraction is now neutralized. Meanwhile, overnight and opening probes under yesterday's lows were isolated to form accumulation, now trying to trigger by exiting a timing window above prior highs... The morning's 3986 bias-down target becomes unfinished business below.
Triggers/Tactics : This afternoon's FOMC Minutes release is being greeted above the morning's highs and after isolating probes under yesterday's lows. The eventual resolution should be up, but that doesn't preclude an interim knee-jerk reaction down.
Alternative : Reacting down to FOMC Minutes could be substantial if it reinforces the recent renewed talk of a 50 bps rate hike's chances.
Levels : UP: 4044, 4108, 4133... DOWN: 4001, 3968, 3945.
Day Trading Market Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Flat-to-higher ranging hovered at 4016 through midnight before breaking lower at Europe's opens, probing Tue's low down to 3996. Bouncing to 4021 on Fed speaker headlines was reversed even lower to 3990. The 2-way day became a 4-way day when its reaction through the noon hour probed overnight highs up to 4025, but reversed again to fresh lows at 3984.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, FOMC Minutes, holiday-shortened week, Russia invasion rumblings.
Setups/Patterns : Unfinished business.
Their influences : Wed's last downleg neutralized the morning's outstanding 3986 bias-down target, and left outstanding the afternoon's 4030 bias-up target.
Premise : Greeting the afternoon's FOMC Minutes from above the morning's highs was a position of strength, so its reaction down should be recovered, similar to recovering the open's bullish Globex-flip. First neutralizing the bias-down target, and isolating yet another timing window's probe under Tue's lows, enables the higher attraction to launch a morning upleg.
Alternative : Wed's second consecutive lower close confirmed Tue's break from the 2-week downtrending channel. Unless invalidated by proxy of gapping up Thu above Tue's 4006 close, at least an eventual third lower close is in-play.
Levels : UP: 4044, 4108, 4133... DOWN: 4001, 3968, 3945.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4013, targeting 4029.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3990, targeting 3978.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.