Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday morning's 2366.00 bias-up signal might have triggered but for blips-down that were triggered by two pessimistic headlines. It was recovered coming out of the noon hour anyway, and its 2171.50 bias-up target was met to within 3 ticks during Monday's final minutes. Sunday night's 2370.00 "new Globex trend extreme" was also neutralized, while potential up to 2372.00-2374.00 was only attacked. In fact, it was shunned -- the close reacted down to 2368.00, and the Globex open slid to 2365.50. But Monday's new high close still qualifies as a breakout. . Overnight action's new info... The Globex open's slide down to 2365.50 quickly reacted back above 2366.00, which has held as support through the night, and 2368.50 has held as resistance. The narrow range's intent on maintaining itself was just tested by TGT's earnings miss, which has affected the stock hard, but S&Ps haven't acknowledged it in any meaningful way. If, then... A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm Monday's breakout, requiring at least an eventual third higher close. Closing above 2372.00-2374.00 would also indicate extending the rally to 2418.00. Of course, there's no assurance of trending either way ahead of tonight's speech by President Trump. Trending may be attempted, whether from this morning's influential econ calendar items or month-end positioning. Until proved otherwise, I'll assume trending attempts will be brief, regardless of their degree. This makes yesterday's breakout difficult to confirm, or to reject. -- Reversing down Tuesday could extend into a multi-session decline, without yet proving the rally had ended, although reversing down after probing a fresh high wouldn't be bullish. -- Gapping down but not extending down through the open could still spend the day rallying back to unchanged without yet proving the rally was extending -- and without confirming the breakout. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2373.75 would be likely to trigger the 2372.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2368.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2366.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2364.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2361.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it's time for Tuesday's Morning Market to her a question that we should always have him we know that there's an event coming is what sort of impact it might be having on price impact or actually influenced ahead of the event impact potentially afterward a lot of that answer depends on how the event is structured does so in this case of course there's a state of the union type of address don't call it that it's not appropriate the first term of the new president in any case trial balloons have been floated or different things have been said publicly not that anything even outside of the context of the State of the Union Address has been written in stone anyway but the point is that the market has shown us that is interested in reacting to specific news in specific ways not the least of which or at least the most recent of which was yesterday morning when the when the open was seemingly on its way to triggering buy a supper at least one position too but kept getting hit with some headlines that we can try to tonight's speech that might be more solidified to the degree that stuff is it any case yesterday left no unfinished business about 2366 his biceps ago was not trigger nevertheless it's 23 7150 bicep Target was neutralized me to get to within three chicks the afternoon to buy a sub 66224 was not triggered and wasn't exceeded until after the by sometime and had to go to Lansing what is that oh and I'm sorry the new blowback Sprint extremes that had preceded yesterday's open were neutralized so there is no unfinished business above there is room for noise that no nothing requires being that but has likelihood of being there any way up to 72 74 20372 2523 7375 will that be done it we've got nothing going on overnight little to speak of overnight other than it's truly relevant nothing's going on overnight 6668 25 6850 really to finding the range the overnight range interesting late after yesterday I had already satisfied or within minutes of satisfying its objective to the degree that I could at least be neutralized the pullback limit was violated pull back what was violated close only 68 was touched post clothes into the glove box open we got down to roll of exported 6475 popped back up above 66 wishes since all the support so clearly there's something about 6668 25 that has extended of persisted beyond our utility other guess the morning and afternoon as the bias of seagulls so any use that as a gauge to identify whether buyer's or seller's or maybe bucking the trend or lack thereof overnight things to discern from the clothes I'm a really today's trading plan attached to this recording or later in the day but we also as a day shapes up but we also have potential for if there's going to be training it oughta be early but it's going to be difficult to Trend with the news that's coming after the clothes other than any drug reactions to headlines or maybe something gets going he just has an example Target missed on earnings that's so it doesn't seem like it's going to be yesterday after neutralizing this Friday so it doesn't look like extended into becoming a April April as far as the front-month there is about a $0.06 premium between April and May so we're looking for about 18 70-72 let's go 1875 the next time jective on Silver assuming similarly to Gold that yesterday's rejected rally was it really wasn't actually rejected so that remains intact long but yesterday didn't actually not extending down overnight crude oil still on the Range so we gotta close either way let alone confirmed by the second consecutive session but not still overlapping 5425 5430 as all upsides happen not still over laughing if it's a 53 then at least 50 to 5358 as has been the case do we get a break by the way there's just so much amazing I mean it sort of thing it is amazing happens that those narrow range of persist for so long but that's the case of crude oil hot natural gas and room all the way up to 286 while still being likely to reverse down to retest last Tuesday night's overnight lows I didn't get all the way up there but we get down yesterday does fluctuate it sideways at the Loews at the Lowe's as I said on Wednesday that's not a bullish pattern that was not a bullish pattern intraday it didn't matter that it launched to that rally try to launch from it it was doomed to failure from whatever level so now we're still looking for now we're still looking for that retest it last Tuesday night to Lowe's and here's sort of a French low overnight to maybe get it going all right as usual any questions please good luck today

Still negative, but bouncing off of support. The open gapped down as much as 4 points to touch the 2364.00 bias-down signal. Its reaction up to 2366.00 was retraced to 2363.50 while RSIs diverged positively or made higher lows. A higher reaction up to 2367.00 avoided triggering bias-down. An offsetting test of the 2372.25 bias-up signal is in-play. We had already assumed trending would be difficult ahead of this evening's speech. We assumed trending down will be difficult since the pre-open TGT earnings miss barely affected price action. A rally this morning doesn't require trending, as price can simply gravitate toward the range's upper-end. The recovery's potential would become suspect if a dip fails to hold 2364.50. It's being attacked now. Back under 2363.50 would start to suggest a deeper dip underway.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2369.25 2368.25 ...would target  2374.75  2373.75 Bias-down: under  2362.50  2361.50 ...would target  2357.00  2356.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another singular steep intraday dip. Last week's sessions each included a singular, steep dip. Nothing is odd about there being one here and there. Little is odd about retracing it entirely. But each of the four sessions dipped, and each session was recovered entirely. (Almost all -- one was recovered almost all the way.) Monday's breakout skipped the pattern, but didn't break it. At least, not insofar as the dip, since the noon hour has plunged 9 points down to 2357.50. But its reaction up to 2363.75 is still several points short of a complete recovery. A recovery wouldn't necessarily be bullish. It would have to become a reversal and close well into positive territory to confirm yesterday's breakout. Which wasn't the likeliest scenario, anyway. Meanwhile, a test of this morning's 2372.25 bias-up signal became "unfinished business above". Plunging just 30 minutes earlier could have invalidated the objective, but now it requires a test. Which is likely today or tomorrow so long as 2361.00 holds as support.

Holding this morning's test of its 2364.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2372.25 bias-up signal. Breaking sharply lower to 2357.50 came too late to prevent 2372.25 from becoming "unfinished business above." The break to 2357.50 held its support, which had been the bias-down target. And the actual selling was short-lived as the context suggested. But 2364.00 held its recovery instead of returning into positive territory. It's not necessarily bearish, and the vacuum could represent ineffectual pessimism that resolves up sharply Wednesday. Resolving back down would next target the 2354.00 area. It could be tested in a deeper detour before reversing back up to the highs -- 2372.25 up to 2373.75. But the rally is tentative. And not exploiting the proximity at Monday's close to confirming its breakout on Tuesday does suggest the rally's momentum is in jeopardy. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. SPECIAL NOTE: The recording's host is affected by the Amazon server outage, so it may be unavailable for viewing.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2368.00 2366.75 ...would target  2373.25  2372.25 Bias-down: under  2360.25  2359.25 ...would target 2355.25  2354.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.