Reliable Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 03-04-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday''s gap down back to Monday afternoon''s 2108.75 low extended through the morning to probe under Monday''s 2100.50 pre-open low, finally bottoming during the noon hour upon only touching the support of yesterday afternoon''s 2095.50 bias-down signal. Rallying through the bias environment to 2107.25 then ranged sideways to close back above last week''s intraday lows.

Overnight action''s new info...
Initially sliding to 2101.75 ahead of Yellen''s overnight speech, a trading range developed back up to 2104.25. It eventually broke into a much steeper, deeper slide through Europe''s opens. Yesterday''s lows are being attacked now down to 2097.00.

If, then...
Overnight selling has been relentless, but (so far) only within yesterday''s range -- yesterday afternoon''s range. Sellers haven''t accomplished anything not already done yesterday (so far). Breaking lower anyway through the open would suggest that the week-old topping pattern is already launching a downleg. Meanwhile, so long as the open isn''t breaking lower, last week''s high remains vulnerable to a retest. And its retest would still likely begin optimistically, by gapping up and/or surging through the open. ADP''s release in a half-hour is a possible catalyst to resolve the overnight dip.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2099.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2104.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Ambush.

The decline had bottomed at 2097.00 a couple of hours earlier, but apparently that wasn''t done to wait for helpful news. ADP was weak, but barely registered a price reaction. 

Recovering 2099.00 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have made bias-down unlikely to trigger. The open barely touched it before reversing into a 10-point plunge down to 2089.00. 

That eventually worked lower to 2085.25 before popping back up to 2089.00. A corrective bounce has room up to 2094.25 or 2096.50, without invalidating the downleg''s momentum.

Entering or exiting  the noon hour back above last week''s ~2100.00 lows would help to avoid a multi-session decline targeting 2060.00 area. 

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2100.50
2099.75
...would target 2106.75
2105.00
Bias-down: under 2092.75
2091.00
...would target 2085.75
2084.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday night''s break lower extended down sharply through Wednesday''s open to quickly fulfill the next lower objective at 1.1125. And that was exceeded to test 1.1075 support. Bounces should hold 1.1125 as resistance to maintain the break''s momentum.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday morning''s slide down to 1198.00 neutralized one attraction below. The other at 1194.00 remains in-play -- with potential to 1185.00 -- unless 1206.00 is recovered first, and then extended above 1212.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday night''s probe down to 16.07 was retested Wednesday, and had better be rejected through Thursday to avoid becoming a much deeper break to fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Wednesday already fulfilled the minimum third lower close that became required by Tuesday confirming Monday''s break. But the decline''s momentum remains intact so long as 158-12 isn''t recovered.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday''s choppiness ultimately resolved up. Having probed 51.25, there should be very little delay either to extending sharply higher through 52.65, or else to reacting down sharply back to prior lows.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednedsay''s bounce tested the 2.77 buy signal, but didn''t trigger it. That''s as strong of a position to greet Thursday''s EIA report, as it would have been to reject Sunday night''s fresh lows by already triggering the buy signal.

If Wednesday''s drop is confirmed... then the recent topping pattern shouldn''t take very long or fall very deeply before ending. But it''s still a multi-session decline. Rejecting Wednesday''s drop could instead continue forming a much bigger top.

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
Wednesday''s break under last week''s lows must be rejected by gapping up sharply at Thursday''s open, or else the week-old topping pattern will have rolled over already.

Gapping up above Wednesday''s 2099.75 post-open high wouldn''t be credible for reversing momentum up. Gapping up only to test Tuesday''s late "higher prior lows" at 2103.00-2104.00 wouldn''t be very credible either. Gapping up to and through 2108.00 would be optimal for reversing momentum up sufficiently to retest last Wednesday''s 2117.75 high.

Not rejecting Wednesday''s break would be vulnerable to confirming it, closing under its 2085.25 low. Oversold RSIs there want to be retested, and don''t offer much support to produce a recovery. The decline''s next major target would be 2060.00-2065.00.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)
I want to schedule a couple of overview webinars, for new subscribers and seasoned subscribers. We''ll examine concepts like the Bias Parameters, RSI retests, and Timing Windows. And we''ll discuss tactics like Reaction entries and Setting stops. Please comment on this blog post at least two preferences for day and time that would be convenient for you to attend... Here are a couple of links to review meanwhile:
Entry parameter video, 3x3x4 Decision Matrix.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2114.75
2101.75
...would target 2119.75
2107.25
Bias-down: under 2094.75
2093.00
...would target 2089.75
2088.00
Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.