Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's complete retracement of Thursday's rally was the resumption of distribution that I began identifying on Monday. Its chart is copied below. Thursday afternoon did not confirm its breakout, because the session's rise to 2866.00 from a pre-open dip to 2813.75 was only a function of having dumped ballast Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Gapping down Friday could have been limited to backing-and-filling ahead of another rally effort into the close or Monday. But its 2830.75 pullback objective resolved down as the morning's bias environment lapsed. The noon hour's fresh lows at 2806.50 reacted up 22 points, only for the final hour to retrace it all (yet another failed intraday rally). No "unfinished business" remains above. And Friday's close was under the prior multi-session consolidation (circled red below), starting to signal the trend reversing down. Overnight action's new info... The weekend's so-called Russiagate report is favorable to Trump, so an overnight rally was likely. It amounted to gapping up back to 2813.00, and immediately extending 5-1/2 points. That was retraced as quickly almost entirely, and then the decline resumed by collapsing to 2792.00. Ranging sideways up to 2801.00 probed lower through Europe's opens to attack 2790.00. But only momentarily, as a snap up has extended back above Friday's lows to test 2810.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's rally could have proved itself by a second consecutive higher close above the week's range, which it did not. Similarly, now breaking under the week's range must prove itself by closing lower again on Monday. Of course, it always seems darkest before the dawn. And, more on point, bull markets have a way of stepping right up to the brink, and then reversing. The alternative to falling into this precipice -- the most glaring and pronounced precipice since long before the ongoing Christmas rally -- avoiding this precipice would suggest resuming the rally to much higher highs. The "dawn" could be an Isolation setup that leaves behind the overnight probe, holding above Friday's 2805.00-2806.50 lows. The setup is forming now. Meanwhile, Friday's lows are also resistance, and rejecting an Isolation setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2812.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2815.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2806.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2800.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Gap down recovery is rejected. The 2790.25 overnight low had been retraced up to 2810.25 before the open. Flat-to-lower ranging greeted the open at 2802.00 where a blip-down to 2799.00 snapped back up to test the 2813.00 Globex opening print. It held. The 2813.00 Globex opening print not only held, but it snapped back down to 2799.00, and then through it to touch the 2790.25 overnight low. No lower. Back above 2798.25 has triggered a bounce whose 2709.00-area target is met. Fluctuating choppily around it is threatening to become something much more substantial than only a temporary bounce:

Coming out of the bias environment back in positive territory would form a sort of Isolation setup. Accumulative, exactly as last week's failed rallies were distributive. Like any setup, fully forming without triggering -- in this case, reversing down again after only recovering -- could be as bearish as the reversal would have been bullish.

The bounce is testing its 2811.50 inflection point, and retesting resistance at the 2813.00 Globex opening print. Back under 2805.00 would signal that buyers failed, possibly also marginalizing them for the day. But extending higher into the noon hour would more likely target 2830.75.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2806.00 2811.50 ...would target 2812.00 2817.50 Bias-down: under 2793.25 2798.75 ...would target 2795.75 2791.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Buyers missed a path higher. The post-open surge testing 2813.00 had collapsed back down to the 2790.25 overnight low. All of which was recovered into the morning bias environment lapsing. And then no more. Any higher for any longer could have isolated the morning's probe of fresh lows, and opened the door to an afternoon short-squeeze. Trending back down through the noon hour and into the afternoon bias environment has retraced the morning's rally to almost 3 points from its 2790.25 lows. That's 5 points under this afternoon's 2798.75 bias-down signal, which did not trigger. So, this is no-bias trending that requires a retracement to 2798.75, perhaps also the 2803.00 1:20 print. Then what I've been calling a "sloppy and choppy" afternoon will be able to resume its "toppy and droppy" downside. Resolving down prematurely would still get every benefit of the doubt for being able to extend down anyway, with only a recovery above 2804.00 suggesting a rally into the close.

At least two recovery efforts failed Monday. The post-open collapse back down to the 2791.25 overnight low had recovered to the open's 2813.50 high, before reversing back down to test 2791.25. Any lower could have extended the decline. The afternoon's no-bias trending expended all available selling pressure to only touch its 2791.25 bias-down target, and it retraced the noon hour's 2802.50 high,which held as resistance. The choppy, sloppy afternoon was separated by two dips to 2791.25. Returning to their origins makes the dips accumulative. Closing above the dips' origins would have made them strong-handed accumulation. But the recoveries stopped short. Gapping up Tuesday above relevant resistance like 2819.50 could serve by proxy for the recovery that Monday didn't produce. Even then, recovering 2830.75 would be a challenge. Whether testing higher resistance first, or just resuming the decline, the pattern remains likely to resolve down, and to extend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2806.00 2811.50 ...would target 2811.75 2817.25 Bias-down: under 2795.00 2800.50 ...would target 2787.75 2793.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.