Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Trending down overnight had formed an hours-long consolidation that blipped-down to 2467.50 before the open. Recovering 2490.00-2491.00 resistance through the open would have formed the second half of a 2-part reversal setup. But resistance was only overlapped instead of trending up until it was too late to be sponsored by strong hands. The morning's 2510.00 peak quickly discovered the base's shortcomings, reversing back down through 2460.00. Its target2433.00 target was met to within 5 ticks when the knee-jerk reaction to favorable coronavirus news avoided probing any deeper. Its reaction's 2468.00 target was reversed down through the close to retrace 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the surge at 2447.00.. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The late surge's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement was recovered almost immediately and probed up to 2475.00. The recovery extended up to 2490.00 by midnight which began acting as resistance. Europe's opens were greeted there, and briefly higher highs up to 2502.00 have slipped back down to 2490.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) REMINDER: COVID SCALPING STRATEGY WORKSHOP AT 7:20 ET... Any bullish scenario requires recovering yesterday's pre-open and post-open 2490.00 resistance, which is still presenting a challenge last night. If the drop from Monday's high has completed a correction, then some window today should rally through the overnight highs. Slightly lower lows this morning under 2433.00 could have finished the correction, but negative territory now would only be bearish after last night's rally. Gapping up and then backing-and-filling this morning wouldn't be optimal, but last night's rally creates room for it without even threatening negative territory. Turning negative today would start to suggest the drop from Monday's high was not a temporary correction. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2497.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2488.50 bias-up target in time to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2477.00 would be likely to trigger the 2469.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2461.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

REMINDER: COVID SCALPING STRATEGY WORKSHOP AT 7:30 ET. Gapping up would have still allowed a pattern for morning weakness. That morning weakness would have otherwise probed negative territory if not for rallying overnight. But the Jobless Claims' surprise triggered a reversal of the overnight rally back down through yesterday's low to 2424.75. Momentarily. The collapse reacted back up sharply through the open to 2475.00. Not quite the bearishness expressed by the Jobless Claims collapse. It was corrected down to 2441.00 but recovered even faster than the pre-open collapse. 2469.00 bias-up signal triggered and its 2488.50 bias-up target was met, retracing the entire Claims reaction. More so, the overnight highs are now being probed up to 2523.00. Such bullish behavior in the face of such bearish news suggests that the market has already overly-discounted the worst of it. This helps to validate that the two-day decline from Monday's highs is a temporary correction. We'll know at noon whether the afternoon's bullish scenario is any likelier to just range sideways ahead of tomorrow's payrolls report.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2527.50 2516.50 ...would target 2546.50 2535.50 Bias-down: under 2496.50 2485.50 ...would target 2482.75 2471.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

REMINDER: 7:30 ET COVID SCALP STRATEGY WORKSHOP. My operating premise is that the Jobless Claims reaction is very bullish behavior. Retracing its collapse back to and through its origin is the biggest part of that. It's only enhanced by having reversed so quickly, and also by maintaining the recovery through the bias environment. There's little difference between only maintaining the recovery extending it. Backing-and-filling has given way to trigger this afternoon's 2485.50 bias-down signal, already fulfilling its 2471.75 bias-down target. Reacting up from touching the target is now testing the bias-down signal as resistance. It should define the window's upper-end for at least another half-hour. Back above 2490.75 would suggest a more impatient rally underway. It would be more reliable if triggered after the bias-down environment begins lapsing. Meanwhile, still being a bias-down environment, lower lows are possible. Lower lows would have to be recovered aggressively to maintain my bullish operating premise. Anxiousness paralyzing price action isn't abnormal the afternoon before monthly payrolls. But digging any deeper this afternoon would start to be suspicious.

REMINDER: JOIN US IN THE CHARTROOM AT 7:30 ET TONIGHT FOR THE COVID SCALP STRATEGY WORKSHOP.

Trending up overnight for a change got to 2502.00 but still greeted Thursday's open in decline. Jobless Claims triggered a collapse collapsing from 2490.00 to 2425.00. Reversing up sharply through the open was extended to fresh highs at 2523.00. Maintaining the recovery through the morning bias environment created a position of strength. And that enabled recovering from an afternoon dip to 2456.00 through the afternoon bias environment, back up to fresh highs at 2525.00. Despite the steep afternoon recovery, Friday's Employment Situation report isn't being greeted any more optimistically than the morning's surge -- because the recovery was contained within the morning surge. This doesn't require recovering from an initially unfavorable knee-jerk reaction, but it makes a favorable reaction likelier to extend higher. Whichever the resolution's direction, Friday Factors could exacerbate their effect to rally sharply into the weekend, or else threaten to resume the decline. And resuming the decline would mean ignoring the 2-day pullback from Monday morning's high had otherwise held critical support at Wednesday's low. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2546.00 2535.00 ...would target 2568.50 2557.50 Bias-down: under 2508.50 2497.50 ...would target 2486.00 2475.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.