Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Defensive posturing ahead of Thursday's Jobless Claims had reversed the 2770.00 fresh recovery high down to 2701.00, which helped to react favorably to the report. So did the Fed's $2.3 trillion intervention. Anyway, the reaction surged through the open to new highs at 2803.50, and later probed it up to 2809.50. The afternoon bias-up environment didn't prevent a "sell the (unimpressive) news" reaction to an OPEC deal, putting the afternoon on defense. Touching Wednesday's last-minute high at 2752.50 as support reacted up to 2787.00 just ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Weekend news -- or lack thereof, i.e. no new virus surprises and an OPEC deal -- triggered Sunday night's gap up. It neutralized"unfinished business" left outstanding Thursday's 2817.00 afternoon bias-up target. Spiking up 10 points above Thursday's 2809.50 high was immediately reversed 102 points, to 63 points under Thursday's 2780.00 close. That was just Sunday night's first 15 minutes, so imagine the volatility since then. Actually, only the opposite, narrowing its range around this morning's 2743.00 bias-down target. Very recently price began firming, now testing 2758.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Rallies don't necessarily dislike uncertainty. They climb a proverbial "Wall of Worry." Another weekend with no virus surprises, combined with an OPEC deal, leaves the rally less wall to climb. The obligatory favorable reaction barely attacked the rally's next higher objective at 2825.00-2827.00 to within 5 points. Only attacking the objective and only overnight can be enough to end a correction. More so, Thursday afternoon sellers had gained traction, and two separate bullish setups failed to fully form or trigger. None of which qualifies as reversing the trend back down -- not even Thursday afternoon's downside traction which was a long time ago, not even almost fully retracing Thursday morning's $2.3 trillion Fed package which was a longer time ago. So, an intraday test of 2825.00-2827.00 remains likely, but back under 2715.00 and 2698.00 through any relevant window would signal the trend is reversing down. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2771.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2762.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2755.00 would be likely to trigger the 2762.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2733.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down under its 2743.00 bias-down target.

Already corrected overnight sellers. Last night's 102-point collapse had defined only the first 15 minutes. Price action otherwise ranged narrowly around this morning's 2743.00 bias-down target. And then it rallied into the open. Not yet rallying pre-open would have been likely to rally post-open. Reversals only discount the prevailing trend, if not replaced with momentum. And that momentum never developed. But upside momentum developed. And it ran into the resistance of Thursday's 2780.00 close. Which wasn't itself bearish, but it never attracted post-open reinforcements. And now the overnight lows are being retested down to 2722.00. Lower lows have room down to 2715.00 or even to 2698.00 without yet reversing the trend down. That is, while remaining in the orbit of recovery highs, and still having a near-term path for their retest. All while the horrible quarterly earnings onslaught approaches, and defensive posturing takes over.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2749.25 2739.50 ...would target 2766.00 2756.25 Bias-down: under 2727.75 2718.00 ...would target 2707.75 2698.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A lot of selling, no downtrending. This morning's bias-down environment had room to test 2715.00 without even beginning to suggest the trend was reversing down. That room was ultimately probed by 4 points during 4 minutes that define this morning's low. Reacting up to 2748.00 during the noon hour was retraced back under the bias-up signal down to 2721.00. This is a no-bias environment, with no objective in-play other than to be contained within the 2718.00-2739.50 range. Breaking beyond either end when the bias window starts lapsing would be credible for extending in that direction. Trending up has an edge, for all of the selling pressure expended to keep prices down without yet breaking under a relevant support. Prematurely probing above the bias-up signal wouldn't necessarily be bearish, but it would only get a benefit of the doubt for targeting fresh highs.

Sunday night's 102-point opening plunge wasn't going to answer whether the rally is topping, let alone topped. Its blip-up to 2819.50 was too brief for its rejection to be strong-handed. And its reaction down stopped short of its room down to 2715.00 that keeps the uptrend intact. Attacking Thursday's 2780.00 close before Monday's open only collapsed again, this time probing under 2715.00. Eventually rallying into late-afternoon got to 2765.00. Two or three drops expended a lot of selling pressure Monday, never gaining traction under a relevant support. Steep as they were, the drops were shallow enough to be considered backing-and-filling. So, buyers weren't very refueled. Still, at least a temporary probe of fresh high remains likely -- now likelier to be produced intraday, and likelier to more thoroughly test the rally's 2825.00-2827.00 objective. Back under 2715.00 and 2698.00 would signal the trend is already reversing down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2784.25 2775.75 ...would target 2803.50 2794.00 Bias-down: under 2756.50 2747.00 ...would target 2735.50 2726.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.