Reliable Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 04-17-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Wednesday night''s slide tested Tuesday''s "lower prior highs" into the 2088.00-2090.00 range. That was also the morning''s bias-down target. The 2095.00 bias-down signal was recovered at the open, but didn''t trigger either way at 10:15 or at 10:30. Nevertheless, the balance of the session worked higher until touching the morning''s 2104.75 bias-up signal during no-bias trending.

Overnight action''s new info...
A downward drift worked its way back into yesterday''s opening range. Narrowly consolidating at 2096.00-2098.00 suddenly broke lower into a 14-point plunge attacking 2082.00. The cause is tied to Bloomberg terminals going off-line globally. With everything being down from communication (i.e. chat) among trading desks to Central Bank activities (e.g. ECB QE buying), it might as well be a weekend. And with two days of illiquidity just hours away, exposure was reduced wholesale, and the selling drove prices down sharply.

If, then...
Yesterday''s no-bias rally was the sign of weak-handed buyers, like the opening range''s optimism that prevented a healthy blip-down before rallying. That kept alive potential for another dip today if the rally wasn''t extending. This vulnerability was leveraged by Bloomberg''s outage into an extra 6 points (attacking 2082.00 where 2088.00 would have sufficed). Without rebooting soon, there''s no assurance that another wave of selling won''t hit. Holding or recovering Tuesday''s 2088.00-2090.00 "lower prior highs" through the open is my line in the sand between rallying this morning, or extending down -- either way, expiration is likely to exacerbate it. All else being equal, the underlying uptrend remains intact, with Bloomberg being the wild card.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2084.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2088.00 bias-down target through 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2090.00 would be likely to hold the bias-down target and not renew bias-down. Exiting the open above 2095.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2093.25 bias-down signal.

Open''s retest of pre-open low goes poorly.

The pre-open bounce from 2082.25 to 2092.00 was retraced at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} before the open. Had that 2085.75 measurement held, then post-open strength would have trended up sharply.

But that last line in the sand to avoid fresh lows didn''t hold. The low''s retest extended down sharply to 2072.50.

This is the retest of uptrending support described during the pre-market Tour. It was fulfilled during the bias timing window. But it wasn''t rejected. Price was still consolidating at 10:15, similar to one of the criticisms of yesterday''s post-open consolidation.

Now a 7-point bounce to 2079.50 is reacting down under a 2076.00 sell signal. Its objective is fresh lows, potentially down to 2066.00. The minimum requirement to invalidate this break would be to recover back above 2081.00.

The passively bullish WedEX may yet prevent trending down this afternoon under whatever is the morning''s low. WedEX may facilitate a recovery from probing fresh lows during the afternoon. But meanwhile, buy signals from under a prior high will be less credible than after bottoming has formed.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2090.75
2083.75
...would target 2097.00
2090.00
Bias-down: under 2078.75
2071.75
...would target 2073.25
2066.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending the rally overnight fulfilled all of the 1.0845-1.0855 target. No higher target is in-play, but a reversal down must first break under 1.0750.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength retested 1205.00-1208.50 resistance, at least suggesting 1194.50 support would hold its test. But resistance must be recovered through the close to signal the trend reversing back up.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Resistance at 16.45-16.60 was tested overnight, and held, preventing the trend from yet reversing up. But its recovery remains possible so long as 16.02-16.10 continues holding as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday''s gap up to 164-22 was reversed down to 163-10, but recovered it to fresh highs above 165-00 -- perhaps in a flight-to-safety from the stock market extending its decline. Closing above 164-04 undermines the bearish pattern.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Despite probing above the 56.00 target Thursday, the 55.20 pullback limit remained the same.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday''s confirmed breakout didn''t extend higher Friday, and instead rested on its laurels of Thursday''s confirmation having entrenched the recovery leg''s momentum. A higher close remains likely, and I would consider it confirmation of a bigger rally underway.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2086.50
2079.50
...would target 2091.25
2084.50
Bias-down: under 2077.25
2070.50
...would target 2072.25
2065.25
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.