Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Monday night's slide had greeted Tuesday's open back at Friday's 2060.50 close, rejecting Monday's interim rally. Probing lower and not exploiting recovery setups then indicated the trend was down, extending to 2048.00. Rallying into and out of the noon hour triggered the afternoon's 2057.00 bias-up signal. Being only a correction, the rally extended quickly to within 1 tick of its 2063.50 target. Being a correction that had met its target, price fell back to 2052.50. The position-squaring window's bounce attacked 2059.50. Overnight action's new info... Firming into Asia's opens had attacked 2060.50, but Tuesday's late low was  soon being probed down to 2051.25. Europe's opens triggered another attack on 2059.50, but that was soon retraced, and then reversed. Tuesday and Friday's lows are being probed to 2041.00. If, then... There was no bullish reason to revisit Friday's range. It had already recovered from probing early-April's consolidation. Its breakout had launched the last rally leg, so retesting it once was done either to launch another rally, or else to break lower. Retesting it twice suggests the latter. Having failed Monday's bounce from Friday's testing the prior consolidation's upper-end as support, a probe under its 2030.00-2035.00 lower-end is the next objective. A significant gap down is indicated, which if not being reversed through the opening 15 minutes, would suggest significant follow-through into the afternoon. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2042.75 would be unlikely to recover the 2046.75 bias-down target by 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2048.75 would be likely to recover the bias-down target through 10:15.

Post-open bounce resembles yesterday afternoon's rally. Corrective bounces often exhibit the trait of urgency. Weak sponsorship will abandon a move when its momentum becomes suspicious. So, they must keep hesitation to a minimum while fulfilling their higher objective. A pre-open dip had retested what would be this morning's renewed bias-down target at 2042.75. So did a post-open dip, after quickly attacking 2048.00. Quickly recovering to fresh post-open highs was able to overlap the 2052.75 bias-down signal at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. All quick, like a temporary correction. Bias-down triggered late. The 2052.75 bias-down signal should still define the range's upper-end if retested. Its 2046.75 target was just retested, and this being a bias-down environment, it need not hold as support. Not renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15 has made lower objectives at 2030.00-2035.00 unlikely to be met this morning. The bigger picture still points there, although recovering the 2052.75 bias-down signal while the bias environment is lapsing would be bullish.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2056.00 2049.75 ...would target  2061.25  2055.00 Bias-down: under  2047.25  2041.00 ...would target 2041.00  2034.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Look out below if that comfort level is finally reached. Deep sea divers know the risks of descending too quickly too deeply. The inverse can be true, too. We last saw that on Monday, when the gap up pointed the session higher, but trending didn't begin until the morning's choppiness had ended. Has this morning's choppiness ended? The noon hour's exit touched the 2041.00 low where the morning's bias environment began lapsing. Retracing it proves the noon hour's bounce was  "ineffectual optimism." Both lows stopped 1 tick short of touching overnight lows, optimism that is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. If tested, the 2049.75 bias-up signal should define the bias environment's upper-end. Back above 2045.00 would signal some bounce is underway. But back under 2042.00 would signal a new downleg underway. Before 1:30 a break under 2042.00 would invalidate the afternoon's no-bias signal. After 1:30 a break under 2042.00 would be no-bias trending requiring a retracement. Sideways ranging until the bias environment begins lapsing would leave the final hour vulnerable to trending down sharply.

The morning's choppiness didn't resolve in the decline's resumption. But neither did it resolve in the decline's retracement. It just resolved in more choppiness. That choppiness wasn't without form, that being an inverted Head & Shoulders. Three of them actually, which doesn't make any one of them any likelier to reverse the trend back up. But a blip-up held resistance at the noon hour's 2047.75 high before reversing back into the range. The late reversal didn't extend back under a prior low which would have merited a hold-short. But the afternoon's Head & Shoulders created a pivotal support trendline around 2043.00 whose break could resume the decline overnight. Otherwise, reversing the trend up requires immediately recovering 2057.50, and any shallower strength remains likely to resolve down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2056.00 2049.75 ...would target  2061.75  2055.50 Bias-down: under  2048.75 2042.50 ...would target 2041.75  2035.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP REJECTED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.