Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday was greeted by overnight ranging around Wednesday's highs, mostly between 3028.00-3052.00, including a new Globex trend extreme at 3054.00. Dipping through the open tested the 3030.50 earlier Globex low to form a bullish Globex-flip. The setup duplicated Wednesday's bullish PM Traction to signal a morning rally. Fresh recovery highs at 3065.50 during the afternoon bias environment were ambushed by China sanction news. Its headline reaction collapsed down to 3019.50 before bouncing to 3039.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Late-afternoon headline reactions tend to probe lower overnight and/or the following day. So, immediately retracing Thursday's late bounce and probing fresh lows wasn't surprising. Neither was reacting back up by midnight, having attacked the 3011.00 bias-down target to within 1 tick. But that bounce failed to turn positive, only probing back above yesterday morning's 3030.00 low by 4 points. Another bounce probed it by 5 points before reversing back down through Europe's opens. And now 3030.00 is trying to recover again. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's late headline reaction fulfilled its tendency for extending into the close, and now also its likelihood to probe lower again. Now it's time either to recover, having yet to even correct the usual 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back up to 3045.00 or else to remain under pressure today. Although not currently indicated, gapping up through the delayed 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement above 3045.00 would be credible for extending higher intraday. Probing it post-open could get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, anyway, but we would maintain a nearby sell signal -- even if a bullish Globex-flip triggers. No unfinished business is necessarily attracting price higher, and Friday Factors can exacerbate an effort in either direction. Not trending up through the open, or later triggering bias-down, could extend the pullback down to Wednesday's unfinished business at 3001.00 or even to 2965.50. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3028.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3022.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3018.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Bias-down target eventually probed. Resolving the overnight range bearishly was likely to begin immediately, if at all. The 3021.25 open's 6-1/2 point blip-down was reversed back up to 3028.50, but only briefly before retracing the opening dip. The 3022.75 bias-down signal held its tests as resistance. That immediate selling pressure finally broke lower while it was triggering bias-down. The overnight attack on the 3011.00 bias-down target had been repeated 1-2 times, but is now finally probed down to 3007.25. Meanwhile, 1-minute RSI has avoided oversold territory. Repeatedly lower price lows, yet 1-min RSI repeatedly refuses to become oversold. This is not a positive divergence, it is not sponsorship's weakness, nor counter-trend strength. No low would be credible as a bottom until 1-min RSI has at least become oversold. Lower lows down to 3001.00 or lower remain likely.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3028.75 3025.25 ...would target 3041.00 3037.50 Bias-down: under 3004.00 3000.50 ...would target 2991.50 2988.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Trump about to deliver China remarks. Trending down post-open finally took RSIs oversold. But not before neutralizing Wednesday's unfinished business at 3001.00. Lower lows into the noon hour's end suddenly spiked down to 2992.00. And then spiked back up to 3019.50. The 3000.50 bias-down signal held its test to trigger no-bias. This setup during the morning would require an offsetting test of the 3025.25 bias-up signal. In the afternoon, the setup only requires that 3025.25 define the window's upper-end if tested. The window's lower-end should be defined by its 3000.50 bias-down signal, if retested. Breaking either way prematurely would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. There's otherwise no outstanding objective. And already having trended down this morning, Friday afternoons would then be unlikely to trend further, or else retrace the earlier trending. Trending down anyway would next target a test of Wednesday's 2965.50 low.

Probing under Thursday's 3019.50 low was already likely as follow-through of the late headline reaction. The first overnight low's reaction from 3011.00, and subsequent reactions, barely attacked Thursday's close before reacting down again. Not rallying defaulted to extending lower, which fulfilled Wednesday afternoon's unfinished business at 3001.00. Afternoon attempts to break lower included the knee-jerk reaction to Trump's China sanctions announcement and held 2992.00. But rallying through Friday's cash session close filled the open's gap back up to 3039.00, and futures extended up to 3055.00. Trending during Friday mornings usually precludes trending Friday afternoon, other than to retrace the post-open range carved out earlier. Friday's late rally probed positive territory only after the Position-squaring window had begun closing. The rally gained traction along the way, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high, and entering the final hour higher. Friday PM Traction is less reliable than other weekdays, but not trending down at Monday's open would be likely to extend higher. We'll discuss possible resolutions and their paths at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3051.75 3048.00 ...would target 3065.50 3061.75 Bias-down: under 3034.25 3030.50 ...would target 3019.50 3015.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.