Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's gap up to 3098.75 was the product of Relentless Overnight Trending. It attracted reinforcements to signal trending up through the morning that got to 3117.50. A gap-and-go setup failed to form by trending higher out of the afternoon bias environment. RSIs diverged negatively on a late blip-up to 3029.50, and its reaction down attacked 3115.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex's open blipped-down several points before rallying sharply up to 3126.75. But only briefly as the rally was retraced and reversed sharply lower to attack 3105.00 by midnight. Its reaction had already resolved down by Europe's opens, extending since then to attack yesterday's open at 3099.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) the overnight slide isn't surprising. The rally had suddenly ignored four opportunities to entrench itself or to extend: By retracing all of yesterday afternoon's bias environment exit rally, by not completing a bullish gap-and-go, by not forming PM Traction, and by not probing higher through the proxy window. None of those was required, but all suggested that new sponsorship wasn't interested. Not necessarily because of price, but perhaps because of timing -- defensive posturing into this morning's Jobless Claims, with tomorrow's Payroll behind it, after yesterday's deer in the headlight's reaction to yesterday's ADP whose subsequent rally seems to have been only obligatory. The bullish context meanwhile suggests this is only a temporary pullback, with room down to 3091.00, 3086.00, and 3066.00. Anything lower would at least suggest a much deeper pullback underway, and open the door to a trend reversal. Greeting or exiting the open at least challenging the bias-down signal might start to suggest no pullback underway, after all. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3108.00 would be likely to trigger the 3112.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3117.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Offsetting test already neutralized. The knee-jerk reaction to ECB's PEPP hike triggered a surge up to the 3112.00 bias-down signal's resistance. Already reversing down was accelerated by the knee-jerk reaction to Jobless Claims that probed fresh lows attacking 3094.00. But the open was greeted at 3108.00 and the first hour has extended higher to attack 3127.00. Holding a test of the 3112.00 bias-down signal put into play an offsetting test of the 3127.25 bias-up signal. Meeting it to within 3-6 ticks neutralizes it, so it won't become unfinished business, but it can still be tested more thoroughly. 3127.25 can even be exceeded, but probing it during the no-bias environment would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Recovering it later can be durable, although a big recovery isn't likely against anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report. Meanwhile, yesterday afternoon's 4 non-bullish behaviors might be a pattern that behaves bearishly today. That was the failure to exploit bullish setups, and ultimately to retrace all post-open gains. Any sell signal today should be suspected for possibly being very productive.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3123.50 3120.75 ...would target 3133.25 3130.50 Bias-down: under 3105.75 3103.00 ...would target 3100.75 3088.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Yesterday's late bearish behaviors become a pattern. Ultimately holding a test of this morning's 3112.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 3127.25 bias-up signal. Attacking it to within 2 ticks more than qualified as neutralizing it. Meanwhile, yesterday afternoon's non-bullish behaviors that had the rejected intraday rally pounced on this morning's rally. Reversing down to 3107.50 has since extended lower to test 3101.00. This afternoon's 3103.00 bias-down signal held its test to trigger another no-bias. Unlike this morning, afternoon no-bias environments don't require an offsetting test of the other buy signal. But the bias signals should define either end of the no-bias window if tested. And a buy signal at 3108.00 is now being probed by 2 points.

Wednesday afternoon's sudden appearance of 4 non-bullish elements struck quickly overnight, reversing its initial attack on 3127.00 back down to 3094.00. That became a pattern by doing the same to Thursday morning's rally back up to the overnight high. The final hour broke lower during a window that is unlikely to break the range ahead of the next morning's Employment Situation report. It found So it was predictably recovered back up to 3116.50 through the close. ADP's tepid reaction is now followed by Jobless Claims bearish reaction before Thursday's open. Which suggests the market wants to react unfavorably to Friday's Payrolls report. This could be limited to only a momentary knee-jerk reaction down, holding support during an Opening Thrust setup that reacts back up into the weekend. Reacting down from an overnight rally could hold barely turn negative before recovering. It could be a deeper drop to lower prior highs at 3065.50 and lower. A positive reaction doesn't ensure extending higher, but keep in mind that the current pullback hasn't proved itself as anything more than temporary. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3124.75 3122.00 ...would target 3135.75 3133.00 Bias-down: under 3100.50 3097.75 ...would target 3089.25 3086.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.