Reliable Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 06-25-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Wednesday''s first hour had held the critical 2113.50 level, but a late surge from there only stretched the rubber band so it could snap back down. Hard. A sell signal triggered under 2112.75 and every bounce limit held as every timing window trended down on the way to 2101.50. Oversold RSIs during the afternoon bias environment waited for a bounce to stretch the rubber band again, snapping back down through the close to test 2099.25 support.

Overnight action''s new info...
The Globex open immediately began rallying into a 2102.00-2104.50 range while awaiting Europe''s opens. That resumed the rally, which eventually surged for its last 5-6 points up to 2112.75. Its reaction down to 2105.00 tried to resume the rally on a very favorable Greece headline. That stopped short of a fresh high when a customarily contradictory headline followed it. The headlines have only gotten worse, but so far the range is holding.

If, then...
Actually, the attempt to resume rallying stopped pessimistically short of touching the 2112.75 high. And that high had stopped pessimistically short of touching the critical 2113.50 level. Monday and Tuesday''s lows at or above 2112.00 were touched, so relevant resistance has been touched. If a rally can''t exploit having chipped away at resistance, the resolution could be that much more bearish. And since yesterday''s break under Monday and Tuesday''s lows signaled a drop underway through Friday morning, gapping up back above the prior lows could reject that setup and put into play new highs.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2107.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2105.75 bias-up signal at the 10:15 bias timing window 30 minutes later. Exiting the open under 2102.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2113.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2110.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

And it''s a big doubt, whether buyers can be productive this morning.

The open''s test of the 2107.50 preliminary signal reacted down under 2104.25 to trigger its sell signal. The 2097.50 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs became oversold.

Not exceeding 2105.75 through 10:30 would trigger late no-bias, putting into play a test of the 2097.50 bias-down signal. This would satisfy the required eventual retest of oversold RSIs at the low.

Reacting up again touched the 2105.75 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Recovering it through 10:30 would trigger late bias-up, putting into play its 2110.50 bias-up target.

Triggering late bias-up could be productive, but probably not durable. Just trending above the bias-up signal this morning in a no-bias environment wouldn''t be much different -- the opportunity to reject yesterday''s bearish setup has passed, and any bounces are likely only refueling sellers for a deeper drop through tomorrow morning.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2116.75
2108.50
...would target 2121.75
2113.50
Bias-down: under 2109.75
2101.50
...would target 2104.25
2096.00
Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1250-1.1275 bounce limit was shallow, but overnight firming was shallower. Thursday''s intraday high was even shallower. That''s pessimism and it suggests that a bigger bounce may be necessary before a deeper drop can begin. Dropping before another bounce should be short-lived.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Very narrow ranging Thursday avoided rejecting Wednesday''s close under its prior low. Fresh lows remain likely, targeting 1158.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very narrow ranging continued to undermine the momentum of Tuesday''s break lower, while not reversing it. A fresh low is possible, but not yet likely to extend.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above Monday''s 149-24 close Wednesday only suggested that sellers were done, but closing above 150-08 is still needed to signal momentum has reversed back up. Thursday''s choppy inside day can''t afford to delay rallying early morning, or else fresh lows become likely.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down a little and ranging narrowly Thursday didn''t reject Wednesday''s close back under 60.70 support. The pattern isn''t distributive, so I don''t have a sell trigger, but probing fresh lows is likely if Friday''s open isn''t almost immediately rejecting and recovering the two-day dip.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday extended to 2.83 ahead of the EIA report. Its reaction down attacked 2.77 to within 1 cent before reversing back up to fresh session highs testing 2.85. Pullbacks must hold 2.83 to maintain the rally''s momentum, which still needs a second consecutive higher close Friday to confirm.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2105.00
2096.75
...would target 2113.75
2105.50
Bias-down: under 2099.50
2091.25
...would target 2094.75
2086.50
Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.